RETAIL PROPERTY BOOM FACES NEW RISKS AS GEOPOLITICS CLOUDS OUTLOOK
Strong consumer spending and tight supply have driven retail to the top of commercial property, but signs of pressure are starting to emerge.
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Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
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At the northern tip of Point Piper, hidden from the street and positioned directly on Sydney Harbour, “Radford” combines cinematic views, rare waterfront access and a fascinating connection to one of Australia’s most storied estates.
The five-bedroom residence occupies land once belonging to Paradis Sur Mer, the celebrated three-block waterfront estate that made Australian property history in 1982. The original mansion became the country’s first home reported to have sold for more than $5 million—and may also have inspired one of its fastest and most profitable resales.
Property developer and yachtsman Bernard Lewis purchased the estate at auction for $5.25 million, only to sell it within hours to English betting magnate and thoroughbred breeder Robert Sangster. Lewis reportedly made a $500,000 profit in the process.
Sangster renamed the property Toison D’Or—French for “Golden Fleece” and the name of one of his racehorses—and established it as a Sydney base with his then-wife, Susan. The estate subsequently changed hands and identities again, becoming Paradis Sur Mer, or “Paradise on the Sea”, during Susan’s marriage to financier Sir Frank Renouf.
After another headline-making sale near the peak of Sydney’s late-1980s property boom, the original mansion was eventually demolished and the waterfront holding subdivided. “Radford” now stands on one of those prized parcels, carrying a thread of that extraordinary history into the present day.
Harbour views take centre stage
Designed by award-winning architect Victor Berk and constructed in the early 1990s, the three-level modernist residence has been planned around its exceptional position.
Panoramic views stretch from the Sydney Harbour Bridge across Shark Island and Rose Bay to Manly. A prized northerly aspect fills the home with natural light, while bedrooms and living spaces open to decks, balconies and terraces overlooking the water.
The main living areas flow to a broad alfresco entertaining terrace, sunny swimming pool and level harbourfront lawn. Beyond the garden, a private jetty completes the quintessential Sydney waterfront lifestyle.
Inside, generous proportions make the home equally suited to private family life and large-scale entertaining. The formal dining area can accommodate up to 14 guests, while a Gaggenau-appointed kitchen incorporates an island, walk-in pantry and casual breakfast area opening to the poolside deck.
A fireplace anchors the principal living space, complemented by high ceilings, travertine floors and expansive glazing that keeps the harbour present throughout the home.
A private sanctuary on every level
The main bedroom is accompanied by two walk-in wardrobes, a sitting area and an ensuite featuring a spa bath, separate shower and twin basins. Three further bedrooms each have an ensuite, while a gym with its own kitchenette, built-in storage and bathroom can serve as a fifth bedroom or private guest retreat.
Additional spaces include a fitted home office, an upper-level family area, sauna, two powder rooms and a substantial laundry. A lift connects all three levels, and the central staircase sits beneath an atrium-style glass roof fitted with an electric retractable blind.
Ducted and zoned air-conditioning, extensive storage and a security alarm add everyday practicality. Internal access leads to an oversized secure double garage, with additional driveway parking.
Set in an elite cul-de-sac on one of Australia’s most prestigious waterfront streets, “Radford” is close to Lady Martins Beach, Prince Edward Yacht Club, the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Rose Bay’s marinas and leading schools. Double Bay’s restaurants, boutiques and village amenities are only minutes away.
It is an exceptional harbourfront residence in its own right—but its connection to the record-breaking Paradis Sur Mer estate gives it a place within the wider story of Sydney real estate.
Property details
Address: Wolseley Road, Point Piper, NSW
Bedrooms: Five, including a flexible gym or guest suite
Bathrooms: Five, plus two powder rooms
Parking: Oversized double garage and additional driveway space
Key features: Northerly aspect, panoramic harbour views, private jetty, swimming pool, level waterfront lawn, lift, sauna, home office and Gaggenau kitchen
Architect: Victor Berk
Agents: Michael Pallier, Sydney Sotheby’s & Brad Pillinger, Pillinger
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