RETAIL PROPERTY BOOM FACES NEW RISKS AS GEOPOLITICS CLOUDS OUTLOOK
Strong consumer spending and tight supply have driven retail to the top of commercial property, but signs of pressure are starting to emerge.
2 min
Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
Scotch whisky expert, luxury hospitality strategist and Keeper of the Quaich inductee Ross Blainey is bringing a new philosophy of luxury experiences to Citizen Kanebridge.
A restored 1860s Brisbane residence transformed by GRAYA has smashed Paddington’s house price record, selling for more than $12 million.
Australia’s capital city housing markets have continued to record price growth, although higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are beginning to temper momentum.
3 min
Capital city home prices have continued to rise in April despite higher interest rates and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and the global economy.
Growth rates, however, have eased, reflecting the usual subduing effect of the lengthy April holiday month.
The national capital city median house price increased marginally by 0.2% over the April quarter to $1,297,798 compared to the March quarter, according to the latest data from My Housing Market.
Annual national house prices are, however, 10.2% higher and have now increased for 14 consecutive months.
Most capitals reported house price increases over the month, with Brisbane and Perth the top performers, each higher by 1.3%, followed by Hobart and Darwin, both up 1.2%, Adelaide up 0.2%, with Sydney steady. Melbourne prices, however, fell 0.7%, while Canberra prices fell 1.7%.
Most also report strong annual house price growth in excess of 10%, with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide clearly the highest, up by 25.7%, 21.6%, 20.0% and 14.2% respectively.
National unit prices were also higher in the April quarter than in the March quarter, rising by 0.5% to $728,459, and have now increased by 8.2% compared to the April quarter 2025 result.
Brisbane was the top monthly performer in April, with unit prices rising by 1.7%, followed by Perth up 1.0%, Melbourne and Canberra each up 0.9%, Adelaide up 0.6%, and Hobart up 0.1%. Sydney unit prices were steady over the month; however, Darwin unit prices were down 0.8%.
Similar to houses, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to record the highest annual unit price growth to April 2026, at 30.1%, 27.8%, 12.9% and 11.8%, respectively.
Analysis
Capital city housing markets have generally reported higher home prices in April, although growth rates have eased compared to March.
Easing housing markets reflect the usual dampening effects of the lengthy April holiday month, although higher interest rates and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook have weighed on affordability and confidence.
Robust annual home price growth, however, continues for most capitals with Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide still reporting boomtime results.
Although 2026 is still set to see home price growth generally in most capitals, the rising spectre of further interest rate increases and elevated uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the economy will continue to dampen affordability and confidence.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, however, are again set to lead capital city outcomes for both houses and units, but are unlikely to match the extraordinary 2025 results.
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record higher median house prices than Melbourne, with Perth now closing in fast on Brisbane and set to lead all but Sydney.
Underlying drivers will continue to support overall housing market activity, although the outlook for RBA interest rates is more problematic, with inflation set to accelerate and economic activity to decline as a consequence of the recent sharp increase in oil prices.
The economy, however, remains strong, with a steady, still-low jobless rate, falling unemployment, continued robust job growth, and a high participation rate.
Housing demand continues to outpace a low and diminishing housing supply, and although high post-COVID migration levels have recently eased, numbers remain strong and will add to chronic housing undersupply, supporting high rents and low vacancy rates generally in capital city rental markets.
Following a period of easing in rental growth, the latest data continue to show extraordinarily low home rental vacancy rates and clear signs that rents are on the rise again.
High rents and higher prices continue to provide clear incentives for first-home buyers and investors chasing solid investment returns.
Ongoing government initiatives to support first-home buyers will increase demand and place further upward pressure on prices.
Capital city housing markets generally recorded higher house and unit prices over 2023, 2024 and surged over 2025, fuelled by rising buyer and seller confidence through sharp cuts to interest rates.
Although 2026 is again likely to see higher home prices, significant uncertainty has recently emerged about the near-term outlook for already-high interest rates and economic activity, which will generally dampen buyer and seller confidence.
Early signs are emerging in the recent weakening of home auction market clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
Parts for iPhones to cost more owing to surging demand from AI companies.
As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.
