The ‘October Theory’ of Changing Your Life

October is traditionally the time to break out the cozy sweaters and consume as many pumpkin-spice drinks as possible. Instead, people are now using it to reset their goals.

Dubbed “October Theory,” these people are rethinking their approach to the last three months of the year. They’re using it as a time to set goals, pick up new habits and reflect—essentially taking on the role New Year’s plays.

October Theory is the latest “theory” social media has latched onto. Between the uneven job market, inflation, and the usual daily grind, people are looking for something they can control. Setting goals and improving their lives —whether it’s their health, finances or mindset—is something they are gravitating toward.

Sarah Stone, a 35-year-old Realtor in Kansas City, Mo., says October is a better time to reflect on the previous nine months and also home in on what she wants to achieve in the last few months of the year. This month, she’s decluttering her home and purging habits such as too much impulse shopping at TJ Maxx.

“It feels almost like the beginning of the year is in the wrong place on the calendar,” says Stone.

October can feel like an introspective time for people since the seasons are changing, a new academic school year has started and the current year is on its way out, says Laurie Kramer, a licensed clinical psychologist and a professor of applied psychology at Northeastern University. The Jewish new year—Rosh Hashana—also takes place in September or October, giving millions a time to reflect.

“This is a great time, 90 days from the new year, from the holidays, to reassess, see where you are with things,” Kramer says.

Start now, win later

October Theory is catching on partly because it sets someone up for success by the time January rolls around, say fans of the trend. Instead of picking up a new habit in the dead of winter—at the same time everyone else is trying to make it to the gym, for instance—it has already been in place for three months.

Every new year, Allison Bucheleres, a 30-year-old lifestyle and fashion content creator in Miami, tries to set new goals. Often, she fails because she doesn’t have a routine in place to make it happen.

Most of her goals this month revolve around setting new daily routines, such as waking up at 7 a.m., journaling her thoughts and writing self-affirmations to reframe her thinking. Around the middle of the day, she’ll repeat her positive phrases—at times over 100 of them—and will sometimes write one on a sticky note to post on her bathroom mirror.

Bucheleres’s newest self-mantra: “I can control my work and my self belief, but not the timing.”

Simple behaviours that are easy to repeat could take as few as 30 times to become a habit. More complex ones, such as going to the gym, could take up to three months of daily practice, says Wendy Wood, professor emerita of psychology and business at the University of Southern California.

The best time to change behaviour is during a big life change, such as moving to a new house or starting a new job or relationship—regardless of whether it’s in January or October, she says.

“You have a sort of window of opportunity to make decisions about what you want to do without your old habits getting in the way,” Wood says.

Making the most of 2024

Others view October as a last chance to fulfil the goals and aspirations they set months ago.

That includes Mateo Pérez, who is in the final stretch for his weightlifting and running regimen. The 19-year-old sophomore, who is majoring in creative advertising at the University of Miami, is also working on an application to transfer to New York University for the fall 2025 semester. Pérez wants to finish the application by the end of this semester in December.

“Right now, it’s like a reflection of this whole year and how can we make the most of the last three months,” Pérez says.

Psychologists say being introspective—at any time of the year—helps people develop habits and routines. It is often the key to following through on your goals.

Two Octobers ago, Kelly Sites, a 38-year-old customer-support manager and content creator, decided to stop living overseas. By February, she had moved to Kansas City, Mo.

This year, she’s trying to set up a daily meditation and breathing practice, and eat more whole foods. In a TikTok post on Oct. 2, Sites encouraged people to go to their photo albums and type in October to see how much their lives have changed in the 10th month of the year.

“It’s this idea of hibernation, seasons changing,” Sites says. “There’s always seeds of my life that were planted in October that changed the rest of the year.”

Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.

When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.

The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.

But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.

Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.

After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.

“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”

The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.

Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.

In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.

Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.

“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”

Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.

“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.

The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.

In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.

Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.

The ‘October Theory’ of Changing Your Life

People are using the beginning of fall as the best time to reset their goals and values, inspired by a social-media trend

Start now, win later

Making the most of 2024

Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.