REVEALED: THE REAL OPPORTUNITIES IN AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY MARKET
New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
3 min
By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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The grand harbourside residence combines sweeping Sydney Heads views, resort-style entertaining and refined designer finishes with a reported $36 million price guide.
The land was previously owned by the late naturalist Herbert Zim, the founder of the Golden Guides nature book series.
2 min
It’s the second-most-expensive listing in all of the Keys, topped by a property just down the road that’s asking $42 million.
The roughly 7-acre spread on Plantation Key was previously home to the five-house compound of the late naturalist Herbert Zim, the founder and editor in chief of the Golden Guides nature book series.
The main house and guest house are available separately or as a package. Ginger Monteleone
For many decades, it was both Zim’s family estate and where he produced his Golden Guides, according to the current owner, Todd Maino. He bought the property, which encompasses six parcels, from Zim’s estate, he said. Mansion Global couldn’t determine what Maino paid.
Over the course of about four years, Maino, a commercial and residential developer, transformed the property into a new compound that was completed last year. There’s a new 8,200-square-foot main house with five bedrooms and a renovated three-bedroom guest house. Maino said he left some cosmetic details unfinished to allow the next owner to personalize the home.
“They can make it their own instead of buying somebody else’s vision,” he said.
The pool stretches 120 feet long. Ginger Monteleone
Off the main house, there’s a 120-foot pool with a hot tub, and beyond that, a sandy beach extends along the property’s 480 feet of water frontage. There’s a dock within a grandfathered-in boat basin that’s larger and deeper than what would be allowed today.
“The drag is over 6 feet, so you can have a pretty large boat there,” listing agent Angel Nicolas of the Nicolas Group at Serhant said. He and his colleague Courtney Conley listed the property a week ago.
The property is full of Florida wildlife, from osprey and sandpiper nests to peacocks that wander around.
“I actually had a manatee have a baby in the boat basin,” Maino said. “It’s ecologically balanced with nature. It’s not concrete jungle—it’s not Miami.”
Because much of the property is open land and not covered in protected trees, there’s opportunity to further develop the estate, whether that be adding another house or amenities like a tennis court or a helipad.
The main house and guest house, which stand on their own waterfront parcels, are also available for sale separately. The lot with the guest house is priced at $15 million, while the main-house lot is asking $27 million, Nicolas said.
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