REVEALED: THE REAL OPPORTUNITIES IN AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY MARKET
New research shows a widening divide across Australia and New Zealand’s property markets, with investors increasingly forced to look beyond traditional strongholds to find real returns.
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By any traditional measure, Australia’s property market should be moving in sync. Instead, it is fragmenting.
New research from MaxCap, led by Head of Research Bruce Wan, paints a picture of a market no longer defined by national trends, but by sharp regional divergence, where performance gaps between cities are widening, and the smartest capital is moving accordingly.
At the top end of the ladder, Perth and southeast Queensland are surging ahead. At the other, Melbourne and Auckland are only just beginning to recover from recent downturns. And sitting squarely in the middle is Sydney, steady but constrained.
The takeaway is clear: the era of relying on headline markets is over.
The rise of the unexpected leaders
Brisbane and the broader southeast Queensland region have emerged as standout performers, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment and a sustained undersupply of housing.
According to the report, housing values in the region have continued to accelerate, supported by long-term tailwinds including the 2032 Olympic Games and a decade of relatively subdued price growth prior.
Perth is telling a similar story, albeit for different reasons. Once heavily tied to commodity cycles, the Western Australian capital is now benefiting from a broader base of economic drivers, including defence spending and sustained resource sector strength.
The result is a housing market that remains one of the strongest in the country, even as price growth begins to ease from its peak.
Sydney holds, but doesn’t lead
For Sydney, the story is more nuanced.
While prices continue to climb and the city remains Australia’s most expensive market, affordability constraints are clearly limiting its pace. Residential growth, while positive, lags behind smaller capitals, and commercial sectors are being held back by softer demand in key industries.
There are, however, signs of momentum building. New infrastructure, including the western Sydney Airport and expanded rail networks, is expected to unlock development opportunities and support future growth, particularly in emerging precincts.
Still, the report positions Sydney firmly in the “middle of the pack”, no longer the automatic frontrunner for investors.
Melbourne’s slow reset
Melbourne, once a consistent performer, has spent recent years recalibrating.
Extended lockdowns, combined with new state property taxes, have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and pricing, particularly across the commercial office sector. Residential values have also underperformed, though for different structural reasons.
Now, there are early signs of recovery.
Improved affordability, population growth and a stabilising economic backdrop are beginning to draw buyers back into the market, with both residential and commercial sectors showing tentative signs of improvement.
Auckland’s turning point
Across the Tasman, Auckland has faced its own challenges, particularly from an outflow of younger workers to Australia, which has dampened demand and stalled price growth.
But here too, the tide appears to be shifting.
A return to positive migration, lower interest rates and policy changes — including the easing of foreign buyer restrictions — are expected to support a gradual recovery, alongside renewed interest from offshore capital.
A market that rewards precision
If there is one unifying theme, it is this: broad-brush strategies no longer work.
MaxCap’s research highlights that the most compelling opportunities are increasingly found outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne, requiring investors to take a more targeted, locally informed approach.
“Given these persistent performance gaps, there is plentiful scope for alpha returns, just by picking the right locations and market segments,” the report notes.
In other words, success in this market is no longer about being in property — it is about being in the right property, in the right place, at the right time.
And increasingly, that place may not be where you expect.
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At the northern tip of Point Piper, hidden from the street and positioned directly on Sydney Harbour, “Radford” combines cinematic views, rare waterfront access and a fascinating connection to one of Australia’s most storied estates.
The five-bedroom residence occupies land once belonging to Paradis Sur Mer, the celebrated three-block waterfront estate that made Australian property history in 1982. The original mansion became the country’s first home reported to have sold for more than $5 million—and may also have inspired one of its fastest and most profitable resales.
Property developer and yachtsman Bernard Lewis purchased the estate at auction for $5.25 million, only to sell it within hours to English betting magnate and thoroughbred breeder Robert Sangster. Lewis reportedly made a $500,000 profit in the process.
Sangster renamed the property Toison D’Or—French for “Golden Fleece” and the name of one of his racehorses—and established it as a Sydney base with his then-wife, Susan. The estate subsequently changed hands and identities again, becoming Paradis Sur Mer, or “Paradise on the Sea”, during Susan’s marriage to financier Sir Frank Renouf.
After another headline-making sale near the peak of Sydney’s late-1980s property boom, the original mansion was eventually demolished and the waterfront holding subdivided. “Radford” now stands on one of those prized parcels, carrying a thread of that extraordinary history into the present day.
Harbour views take centre stage
Designed by award-winning architect Victor Berk and constructed in the early 1990s, the three-level modernist residence has been planned around its exceptional position.
Panoramic views stretch from the Sydney Harbour Bridge across Shark Island and Rose Bay to Manly. A prized northerly aspect fills the home with natural light, while bedrooms and living spaces open to decks, balconies and terraces overlooking the water.
The main living areas flow to a broad alfresco entertaining terrace, sunny swimming pool and level harbourfront lawn. Beyond the garden, a private jetty completes the quintessential Sydney waterfront lifestyle.
Inside, generous proportions make the home equally suited to private family life and large-scale entertaining. The formal dining area can accommodate up to 14 guests, while a Gaggenau-appointed kitchen incorporates an island, walk-in pantry and casual breakfast area opening to the poolside deck.
A fireplace anchors the principal living space, complemented by high ceilings, travertine floors and expansive glazing that keeps the harbour present throughout the home.
A private sanctuary on every level
The main bedroom is accompanied by two walk-in wardrobes, a sitting area and an ensuite featuring a spa bath, separate shower and twin basins. Three further bedrooms each have an ensuite, while a gym with its own kitchenette, built-in storage and bathroom can serve as a fifth bedroom or private guest retreat.
Additional spaces include a fitted home office, an upper-level family area, sauna, two powder rooms and a substantial laundry. A lift connects all three levels, and the central staircase sits beneath an atrium-style glass roof fitted with an electric retractable blind.
Ducted and zoned air-conditioning, extensive storage and a security alarm add everyday practicality. Internal access leads to an oversized secure double garage, with additional driveway parking.
Set in an elite cul-de-sac on one of Australia’s most prestigious waterfront streets, “Radford” is close to Lady Martins Beach, Prince Edward Yacht Club, the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Rose Bay’s marinas and leading schools. Double Bay’s restaurants, boutiques and village amenities are only minutes away.
It is an exceptional harbourfront residence in its own right—but its connection to the record-breaking Paradis Sur Mer estate gives it a place within the wider story of Sydney real estate.
Property details
Address: Wolseley Road, Point Piper, NSW
Bedrooms: Five, including a flexible gym or guest suite
Bathrooms: Five, plus two powder rooms
Parking: Oversized double garage and additional driveway space
Key features: Northerly aspect, panoramic harbour views, private jetty, swimming pool, level waterfront lawn, lift, sauna, home office and Gaggenau kitchen
Architect: Victor Berk
Agents: Michael Pallier, Sydney Sotheby’s & Brad Pillinger, Pillinger
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