The sticky economic factor making an interest rate drop unlikely this year
It’s a key indicator in the RBA board’s decision making process, but it is proving difficult to move in the right direction
2 min
The consumer price index (CPI) rose in April to an annual rate of 3.6 percent, which was 0.1 percent higher than in March, raising doubts about an interest rate cut this year as inflation starts looking stickier than expected. This is the second consecutive month of small rises, potentially indicating that Australia is experiencing the same stalled progress in bringing inflation down that is being seen in the United States, as both nations approach their central banks’ target inflation bands.
In Australia, the target inflation band is 2 to 3 percent, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aiming to achieve the midpoint under its new agreement with the Federal Government following a formal review. In its interest rate decision-making, the RBA does not give as much weight to the monthly inflation data because not all prices are measured like they are in the quarterly data. On a quarterly basis, inflation has continued to fall. In the March quarter, the annual rate of inflation was 3.6 percent, down from 4.1 percent in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
CBA economist Stephen Wu noted the April data was above the bank’s forecast of 3.5 percent as well as the industrywide consensus forecast of 3.4 percent. He predicts the next leg down in inflation won’t be until the September quarter, when we will see the effects of electricity rebates and a likely smaller minimum wage increase to be announced by the Fair Work Commission next month compared to June 2023.
The most significant contributor to the April inflation rise were housing costs, which rose 4.9 percent on an annual basis. This reflects a continuing rise in weekly rents amid near-record low vacancy rates across the country, as well as significantly higher labour and materials costs which builders are passing on to the buyers of new homes, as well as renovators.
The second biggest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.8 percent annually, reflecting higher prices for fruit and vegetables in April. The ABS said unfavourable weather led to a reduced supply of berries, bananas and vegetables such as broccoli. The annual rate of inflation for alcohol and tobacco rose by 6.5 percent, and transport rose by 4.2 percent due to higher fuel prices.
Robert Carnell, the Asia Pacific head of research at ING, said they no longer expect a rate cut this year after seeing the April data. Mr Carnell said an increase in trend inflation was apparent and “rate cuts this year look unlikely”. In the RBA’s latest monetary policy statement, published before the April CPI was released, it said: “Inflation is expected to be higher in the near term than previously thought due to the stronger labour market and higher petrol prices. But inflation is still expected to return to the target range in the second half of 2025 and to reach the midpoint in 2026.”
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Quantum computing is moving from theory to real-world investment. Professor David Reilly says it could reshape finance, security and global technology infrastructure.
3 min
For decades, the world’s computing power has quietly expanded at an astonishing pace.
From the first transistor developed at Bell Labs in 1947 to modern processors containing billions and even trillions of transistors, each generation of technology has been faster, smaller and more powerful than the last.
But according to quantum physicist and technology entrepreneur David Reilly, that era of effortless progress is beginning to slow.
Reilly, CEO of Sydney-based Emergence Quantum and Professor of Physics at the University of Sydney, says the computing infrastructure underpinning modern economies is approaching fundamental physical limits.
And that could have enormous implications for finance, artificial intelligence and global investment.
Speaking at an industry event organised by Kanebridge International, Reilly said many critical parts of modern society depend on computing and the infrastructure used to process information.
The slowdown behind the tech boom
For years, the technology industry relied on a steady improvement known as Moore’s Law, where the number of transistors on a chip doubled roughly every two years.
More transistors meant more computing power, allowing faster software, smarter devices and ever-larger data systems.
Today, however, those gains are slowing.
“It feels to me very innate that I’m going to just find that next year there’s going to be another breakthrough,” Reilly said.
“But if you look at the data…there’s a slowing down, a roll off in performance that started some 10, 20 years ago.”
Rather than making chips dramatically faster, manufacturers are now largely increasing computing capacity by packing more transistors onto each processor.
The approach works, but it comes with growing complexity, higher costs and increasing energy demands.
The brute-force race for AI
That challenge is already visible in the massive data centres being built to support artificial intelligence.
In the race to dominate AI, companies are constructing vast computing facilities that consume huge amounts of electricity and water. Reilly described this expansion as a “brute force” approach driven by the global competition to develop advanced AI systems.
Yet the demand for computing power continues to accelerate.
Artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, healthcare research, pharmaceuticals and cybersecurity all require far more processing capacity than today’s systems can easily deliver.
The question now facing the technology sector is whether traditional computing can keep up.
Enter quantum computing
That is where quantum computing enters the conversation.
Unlike conventional computers, which process information using binary switches that represent ones and zeros, quantum computers exploit the unusual behaviour of particles at the atomic scale.
Reilly describes them as a fundamentally different type of machine.
“So a quantum computer is a wave computer,” he said.
Instead of processing information through simple on-off switches, quantum systems can use wave-like properties of particles to process many possible outcomes simultaneously.
Those waves can interact in complex ways, reinforcing correct solutions while cancelling out incorrect ones. In theory, this allows quantum systems to tackle certain types of problems dramatically faster than classical computers.
What it could mean for finance
The concept may sound abstract, but its potential applications are significant.
Quantum computers are expected to transform areas such as materials science, chemical modelling and pharmaceutical development.
They could also help solve complex optimisation problems in logistics, finance and risk management.
For financial institutions in particular, the technology could offer new tools for detecting fraud, analysing market behaviour and optimising portfolios.
But the shift will not happen overnight.
“One message to take away is that quantum is not going to suddenly solve all of your problems,” Reilly said.
Instead, he said quantum systems will likely complement existing computing technologies as part of a broader and more diverse computing ecosystem.
Why data centres may soon “go cold”
One key change already emerging is how computing systems are physically designed.
Many next-generation technologies, including quantum processors, operate far more efficiently at extremely low temperatures. As a result, future data centres may rely heavily on cryogenic cooling systems to manage heat and energy consumption.
Reilly believes that the shift will gradually reshape the computing industry.
“Over the next five years, you’re going to see data centres go cold,” he said.
“And as that happens, they almost drag with them new compute paradigms.”
Emergence Quantum, the company he co-founded, is focused on developing technologies to support that transition, including cryogenic electronics and integrated hardware platforms designed for quantum computing and energy-efficient systems.
A new technological era
For investors and businesses, the technology remains in its early stages. But the scale of global interest is growing rapidly.
Governments, research institutions and technology companies are investing heavily in quantum research, betting it could become a foundational technology for the next generation of computing.
For Reilly, the moment feels similar to earlier technological turning points.
In the 19th century, new discoveries in thermodynamics helped drive the development of steam engines and the Industrial Revolution. In the 20th century, advances in electromagnetism led to radio, television and eventually the internet.
Quantum physics, he suggests, could represent the next chapter in that story.
“Today we have, as a society, in our hands new physics that we’re just beginning to figure out what to do with,” Reilly said.
“But I think it’s an exciting time to be alive and watch what happens over the coming decades.”
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