How Investing Will Change if the Dollar No Longer Rules the World

If you’ve been investing your savings for the past 15 years, there is a situation you’ve hardly ever encountered: the U.S. dollar getting structurally weaker. Given the fallout from President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” you may need to get used to it.

Wall Street was caught off guard when the greenback dropped against major currencies following this past week’s tariff news. Markets feared that protectionism could put an end to the U.S.’s economic dominance since the global financial crisis.

International money managers, who had massively biased their holdings toward U.S. assets, are feeling the urge to find another source of high returns. American investors, long comfortable ignoring foreign stocks, may no longer have that luxury.

“We are working on the assumption that in the next five years, the dollar is going to lose another 10% to 15%,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Switzerland’s Pictet Asset Management.

To be sure, asset managers in many cases are making short-term, defensive moves to protect against a potential recession. It also follows a trend of money leaving the “Magnificent Seven” stocks specifically— Apple , Microsoft , Amazon.com , Alphabet , Meta Platforms , Nvidia and Tesla —for reasons not fully related to Trump .

These companies drove much of the exceptional returns of the past decade and a half, but their collective price/earnings ratio hit a staggering 46 times last December. At such a lofty level, it doesn’t take much for a fall to ensue.

Even excluding the Magnificent Seven, though, Americans who bought the rest of the S&P 500 15 years ago earned a total return of around 380%. Europeans who did the same, unhedged, earned about 490%—thanks to the dollar’s more than 20% gain against the euro, according to FactSet.

The reverse also holds: Eurozone equities returned about 220% in euros, but only 150% in dollars. Japanese equities tell a similar story—the Nikkei 225 gained 300% in yen, but just 160% in dollars. No wonder Americans haven’t rushed to add these stocks to their 401(k)s.

What is striking is that a stronger dollar should, mechanically, hurt U.S. stocks—by reducing the dollar value of overseas earnings—and help foreign ones. Historically, it has been better to buy the S&P 500 when the dollar was weakening. Over the past five years, that held true: Fed rate hikes strengthened the dollar while hurting equities.

But in the seven years before Covid-19, the dollar and U.S. equities moved in sync. That was the heyday of the “American exceptionalism trade,” when U.S. assets outperformed across the board—not just in tech. This included currency-sensitive sectors like industrials.

Two forces helped drive this. One was the fracking boom, which made the U.S. largely energy self-sufficient, cutting corporate costs and turning the dollar into a kind of “petrocurrency.” Investors learned in 2014 the counterintuitive lesson that the U.S. economy may actually suffer when crude prices nosedive, and benefit when they rise.

Indeed, the other factor was that U.S. consumer spending was unrelenting, even at times when gas-pump prices increased. For years, it has been powered by government deficit spending, a tech sector exporting services globally at scale, and the wealth effects from a booming stock market.

Most of that now risks being turned upside down, exposing investors to the prospect of falling equities alongside a weakening currency.

Trump has pledged to plug the budget deficit, which could arguably weaken the dollar. Meanwhile, he has launched a tariff war that has tanked the equity market, triggered retaliation from China and may provoke European blowback against U.S. tech giants.

The new regime could echo the early 2000s, when investors turned against both tech and U.S. stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. At the time, the dollar also had a positive correlation with equities, as capital flowed into the so-called Brics—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

In a report to clients Friday, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments noted that international equities have historically picked up the slack when the S&P 500 lagged behind. In such cases, the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes beat the benchmark U.S. index by an annualized average of 2.0 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points, respectively.

A weaker dollar itself helps support the financial resilience of developing nations. Meanwhile, the European Union has rekindled investor hopes that it can close the growth gap with the U.S. through fiscal stimulus, industrial policy and energy independence.

At the same time, this is nothing like the 2000s. The rest of the world is far more exposed to trade than the U.S.’s relatively closed economy and will have to grapple with China rerouting a huge glut of cheap goods there.

Another option for investors, then, is to remain in U.S. equities and hedge the currency risk—but that is expensive—or to broaden exposure to discounted “value” stocks and try to identify potential long-term winners.

An economy reshaped by Trump would imply more investment and less consumption. Since the only profitable way to onshore production—whether a Nike shoe or a General Motors SUV—is to use machines instead of labor, capital goods manufacturers may eventually benefit. But they are also among the hardest hit by today’s indiscriminate disruption to global supply chains.

Given the complete lack of clarity, the only solution for those who still need the long-term upside of stocks may be to do all of it at the same time. Right now, diversification isn’t just a strategy, it is a lifeline.

The Australian sharemarket rose during four of five sessions in the week ending 30 October, but the headline gain concealed a sharp divide between recovering miners, rate-sensitive property stocks and retailers hit by inflation and weaker trading updates.

The Australian sharemarket finished October with a positive week, although the route higher was anything but uniform.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday 30 October at 8,908.1, gaining 112.9 points, or 1.28 per cent, from the previous Friday’s close of 8,795.2.

The All Ordinaries advanced 1.34 per cent to 9,025, while the more concentrated S&P/ASX 20 gained 1.11 per cent.

The benchmark rose during four of the week’s five sessions. It added 0.17 per cent on Monday and 0.46 per cent on Tuesday, before slipping 0.03 per cent on Wednesday. It recovered 0.50 per cent on Thursday and gained another 0.18 per cent on Friday.

The index briefly reached 8,933.3 but again failed to establish itself above the psychologically important 9,000-point mark.

The week’s central tension was between a resources recovery and a less forgiving domestic interest-rate outlook.

Materials gained 4.06 per cent, reclaiming part of the previous week’s heavy fall. Australian real estate investment trusts rose 3.77 per cent, financials gained 1.05 per cent and energy advanced 1.39 per cent.

At the other end of the market, consumer staples fell 5.13 per cent and consumer discretionary shares lost 2.35 per cent. Utilities declined 0.73 per cent and communication services eased 0.68 per cent.

Inflation changes the conversation

Australia’s September inflation data was the week’s pivotal domestic release.

Annual inflation of 4.3 per cent pushed market pricing towards another possible Reserve Bank increase and disrupted Wednesday’s early sharemarket rally.

By Thursday’s close, one widely followed market measure placed the probability of an increase in the cash rate to 4.85 per cent at approximately 80 per cent.

That pricing does not make an increase certain. It does, however, change the framework through which investors assess Australian businesses.

Companies dependent on discretionary household spending face renewed pressure on sales and margins. Property trusts, banks, developers and highly leveraged companies must be considered against the prospect of higher funding costs.

Banks present a more complicated equation. Higher rates can support margins, but they may also slow credit growth and increase arrears.

Miners recover

BHP gained 4.56 per cent across the week to close at $57.56, making a substantial contribution to the benchmark’s rise.

The recovery followed an 8.3 per cent fall during the previous week and helped lift the broader materials sector.

Northern Star Resources added 4.59 per cent, while Goodman Group advanced 6.85 per cent to become the strongest performer in the ASX 20.

The commodities picture was mixed. Gold fell approximately 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure, while Brent crude added around 0.68 per cent.

The Australian dollar was little changed at approximately US70.35 cents at the reference point.

Supermarkets and consumer shares retreat

The consumer-staples story was markedly weaker.

Coles fell 11.77 per cent after its first-quarter update, making it one of the largest significant-company declines of the week.

Woolworths lost 3.66 per cent and Wesfarmers fell 4.48 per cent to $76.69 as investors processed company trading commentary against the prospect of another squeeze on household demand.

The moves illustrate how quickly expectations can change when an apparently defensive company disappoints.

Supermarkets still benefit from the recurring need for groceries, but customers can trade down, shift between chains and reduce spending on higher-margin discretionary lines.

Wesfarmers carries exposure to several consumer categories through businesses including Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks. A renewed rate increase would place more pressure on households already confronting higher prices.

The wider market’s biggest movements

Among companies outside the ASX 20, Mesoblast surged 27.32 per cent, SiteMinder gained 22.74 per cent and Zip rose 22.60 per cent.

The sharpest weekly falls included 4DMedical, down 33.51 per cent; Tuas, down 29.95 per cent; Catalyst Metals, down 17.47 per cent; and Champion Iron, down 13.35 per cent.

Those percentages require context.

The movements in BHP, Commonwealth Bank and other very large companies had substantially more influence on the index than similarly dramatic changes among smaller companies.

A 20 per cent move in a relatively small stock may attract more attention than a two per cent rise in a major bank, but the bank can have the greater effect on the market.

How the ASX 20 moved

The following list uses the S&P/ASX 20 constituents and five-session movements reported at the 30 October close.

Where the component feed did not publish a valid five-day comparison, no figure has been estimated.

BHP Group: Up 4.56 per cent

Commonwealth Bank: Up 1.66 per cent

Rio Tinto: Down 2.20 per cent

National Australia Bank: Up 0.48 per cent

Westpac: Up 0.08 per cent

ANZ Group: Up 1.92 per cent

CSL: Up 2.05 per cent

Macquarie Group: Up 2.19 per cent

Wesfarmers: Down 4.48 per cent

Woodside Energy: Up 1.43 per cent

Goodman Group: Up 6.85 per cent

Telstra: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed

Woolworths: Down 3.66 per cent

Fortescue: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed

Transurban: Down 2.40 per cent

QBE Insurance: Down 1.21 per cent

Aristocrat Leisure: Up 0.63 per cent

Northern Star Resources: Up 4.59 per cent

Sigma Healthcare: Down 0.36 per cent

Brambles: Down 1.20 per cent

The companies dominating the conversation

Coles was the week’s standout media-facing company for the wrong reason.

Its trading update produced an outsized repricing and drew attention across the grocery and retail sectors. Woolworths and Wesfarmers were also scrutinised as investors considered how stubborn inflation and another possible rate rise could affect sales volumes.

Bank of Queensland offered a more positive corporate signal.

The bank reported that its FY26 net interest margin had risen six basis points to 1.70 per cent, ahead of the 1.68 per cent expected by the market according to contemporaneous reporting.

Bank of Queensland shares rose 5.8 per cent on Thursday, while the major banks also rallied.

Endeavour Group finished Friday at $3.39, up 4.31 per cent on the day, and released the results of its annual general meeting.

The movement was notable during a week in which investors were highly sensitive to consumer-facing companies. The AGM result should not, however, be presented as the sole cause of the share-price increase without further supporting company guidance.

Mesoblast’s 23.4 per cent Thursday rise and 27.32 per cent weekly gain returned the biotechnology company to the centre of market attention.

For editors, it is important to separate the size of that percentage movement from its influence on the index. Mesoblast was an eye-catching performer, but it did not drive the ASX 200 in the way BHP or Commonwealth Bank did.

Qantas remained part of the broader market conversation as investors watched travel demand and company updates.

However, the primary-source review did not locate a fresh Qantas announcement that justified attributing a major weekly market movement to new company information. The airline should therefore remain on the monitoring list rather than being forced into the week’s causal narrative.

Is Australia’s IPO market reopening?

The official ASX new-listings pipeline remains active but selective.

ASX’s upcoming-floats page included formal applications with offer timetables extending through October and at least one anticipated listing on 30 November.

The exchange notes that its page covers companies for which a formal listing application has been received. It does not represent every company privately exploring a float.

The wider debate concerns whether Australia’s public market is sufficiently competitive when high-growth businesses can pursue capital in the United States or remain privately funded for longer.

ASX has previously raised possible reforms designed to improve the attractiveness of the local market. These include debate about reducing minimum free-float requirements and streamlining aspects of the admissions process.

An enhanced fast-track pathway for qualifying applicants can shorten the review process, reducing the execution risk created when market conditions change during a long IPO timetable.

That does not remove the more fundamental challenge.

New floats still require credible earnings or a convincing growth pathway, sensible pricing and enough genuine free float to support trading after listing.

Investors can already obtain diversified exposure through low-cost exchange-traded funds or buy established, liquid businesses. A float must therefore offer more than novelty.

The current pipeline suggests that the IPO window is open, but it is not indiscriminate.

What investors will watch next

The Reserve Bank’s next decision now sits at the centre of the domestic outlook.

Any change in cash-rate expectations will flow rapidly through banks, retailers, property trusts, listed developers and companies carrying substantial debt.

Investors will also watch whether the materials recovery can continue, whether BHP can hold its rebound and whether consumer companies provide further evidence of slowing demand.

Overseas, technology-sector volatility, commodity prices and the United States interest-rate outlook will continue to shape Australian trading.

The week’s 1.28 per cent headline gain was encouraging, but it was not a broad declaration of confidence.

It was a rotation towards miners, selected financials and property securities—and away from consumer businesses facing a more difficult inflation and interest-rate equation.

Market dashboard

S&P/ASX 200: 8,908.1, up 1.28 per cent for the week

All Ordinaries: 9,025, up 1.34 per cent

S&P/ASX 20: 5,214.7, up 1.11 per cent over five sessions

Best sector: Materials, up 4.06 per cent

Next-best sector: A-REITs, up 3.77 per cent

Weakest sector: Consumer staples, down 5.13 per cent

Major large-cap winner: Goodman Group, up 6.85 per cent

Major large-cap loser: Coles, down 11.77 per cent

AUD/USD: Approximately US70.35 cents at the weekly reference point

Gold: Approximately US$3,885 an ounce, down 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure

Brent crude: Approximately US$117.70 a barrel, up 0.68 per cent on the cited weekly measure