How Investing Will Change if the Dollar No Longer Rules the World

If you’ve been investing your savings for the past 15 years, there is a situation you’ve hardly ever encountered: the U.S. dollar getting structurally weaker. Given the fallout from President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” you may need to get used to it.

Wall Street was caught off guard when the greenback dropped against major currencies following this past week’s tariff news. Markets feared that protectionism could put an end to the U.S.’s economic dominance since the global financial crisis.

International money managers, who had massively biased their holdings toward U.S. assets, are feeling the urge to find another source of high returns. American investors, long comfortable ignoring foreign stocks, may no longer have that luxury.

“We are working on the assumption that in the next five years, the dollar is going to lose another 10% to 15%,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Switzerland’s Pictet Asset Management.

To be sure, asset managers in many cases are making short-term, defensive moves to protect against a potential recession. It also follows a trend of money leaving the “Magnificent Seven” stocks specifically— Apple , Microsoft , Amazon.com , Alphabet , Meta Platforms , Nvidia and Tesla —for reasons not fully related to Trump .

These companies drove much of the exceptional returns of the past decade and a half, but their collective price/earnings ratio hit a staggering 46 times last December. At such a lofty level, it doesn’t take much for a fall to ensue.

Even excluding the Magnificent Seven, though, Americans who bought the rest of the S&P 500 15 years ago earned a total return of around 380%. Europeans who did the same, unhedged, earned about 490%—thanks to the dollar’s more than 20% gain against the euro, according to FactSet.

The reverse also holds: Eurozone equities returned about 220% in euros, but only 150% in dollars. Japanese equities tell a similar story—the Nikkei 225 gained 300% in yen, but just 160% in dollars. No wonder Americans haven’t rushed to add these stocks to their 401(k)s.

What is striking is that a stronger dollar should, mechanically, hurt U.S. stocks—by reducing the dollar value of overseas earnings—and help foreign ones. Historically, it has been better to buy the S&P 500 when the dollar was weakening. Over the past five years, that held true: Fed rate hikes strengthened the dollar while hurting equities.

But in the seven years before Covid-19, the dollar and U.S. equities moved in sync. That was the heyday of the “American exceptionalism trade,” when U.S. assets outperformed across the board—not just in tech. This included currency-sensitive sectors like industrials.

Two forces helped drive this. One was the fracking boom, which made the U.S. largely energy self-sufficient, cutting corporate costs and turning the dollar into a kind of “petrocurrency.” Investors learned in 2014 the counterintuitive lesson that the U.S. economy may actually suffer when crude prices nosedive, and benefit when they rise.

Indeed, the other factor was that U.S. consumer spending was unrelenting, even at times when gas-pump prices increased. For years, it has been powered by government deficit spending, a tech sector exporting services globally at scale, and the wealth effects from a booming stock market.

Most of that now risks being turned upside down, exposing investors to the prospect of falling equities alongside a weakening currency.

Trump has pledged to plug the budget deficit, which could arguably weaken the dollar. Meanwhile, he has launched a tariff war that has tanked the equity market, triggered retaliation from China and may provoke European blowback against U.S. tech giants.

The new regime could echo the early 2000s, when investors turned against both tech and U.S. stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble. At the time, the dollar also had a positive correlation with equities, as capital flowed into the so-called Brics—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

In a report to clients Friday, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments noted that international equities have historically picked up the slack when the S&P 500 lagged behind. In such cases, the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes beat the benchmark U.S. index by an annualized average of 2.0 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points, respectively.

A weaker dollar itself helps support the financial resilience of developing nations. Meanwhile, the European Union has rekindled investor hopes that it can close the growth gap with the U.S. through fiscal stimulus, industrial policy and energy independence.

At the same time, this is nothing like the 2000s. The rest of the world is far more exposed to trade than the U.S.’s relatively closed economy and will have to grapple with China rerouting a huge glut of cheap goods there.

Another option for investors, then, is to remain in U.S. equities and hedge the currency risk—but that is expensive—or to broaden exposure to discounted “value” stocks and try to identify potential long-term winners.

An economy reshaped by Trump would imply more investment and less consumption. Since the only profitable way to onshore production—whether a Nike shoe or a General Motors SUV—is to use machines instead of labor, capital goods manufacturers may eventually benefit. But they are also among the hardest hit by today’s indiscriminate disruption to global supply chains.

Given the complete lack of clarity, the only solution for those who still need the long-term upside of stocks may be to do all of it at the same time. Right now, diversification isn’t just a strategy, it is a lifeline.

The recent budget has forced a reckoning for property investors.

Negative gearing now restricted to new residential builds, the CGT discount gone and on paper, the numbers look different.

And many investors are responding by pivoting toward yield, prioritising cash flow over capital growth in a way that property strategists say misses the point entirely.

“The debate has shifted to yield versus growth as if they are opposing forces,” says Abdullah Nouh, founder of Melbourne-based buyers’ agency Mecca Property Group. “But that framing is itself the mistake.”

Nouh, who works with high-net-worth families and investors on long-term acquisition strategy, argues that capital growth remains the primary driver of genuine wealth creation and that the post-budget environment has made quality assets more important, not less.

The numbers make his case plainly. An additional $500 per week in rental income is welcome. A prestige asset appreciating by $1 million over a market cycle is transformative.

These are not equivalent outcomes, and portfolios built around yield at the expense of location and land value tend to generate income while wealth stands largely still.

The more nuanced shift Nouh is seeing among sophisticated investors is a move toward assets where both outcomes can be engineered simultaneously – established homes on substantial land in quality locations, where the existing dwelling can be repositioned, rental returns improved, and the underlying land value compounds independent of what sits on it.

For investors with existing equity, commercial property is also entering the conversation in a more serious way.

Prestige industrial assets, medical centres and long-leased essential retail offer income profiles that residential property in most capital city markets cannot currently match: longer lease terms, tenants covering outgoings, and greater predictability than the residential tenancy cycle.

“The investors who build lasting wealth are rarely the ones who chased yield or growth exclusively,” says Nouh.

“They are the ones who built a strategy they could sustain – one that generated enough income to hold quality assets through multiple cycles while those assets compounded in value.”

The budget has changed the settings. It has not changed the fundamentals.

How Investing Will Change if the Dollar No Longer Rules the World

Should the U.S. currency and stocks no longer rise together, Americans will need to broaden their portfolios.

The federal budget has rattled property investors. But the biggest mistake isn’t the tax changes, it’s the conclusion many are drawing from them.