Novice collectors should focus their investing efforts on what brings them happiness amid wider economic uncertainty and unpredictable returns, according to Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index, released Tuesday.
The index—which tracks 10 luxury collectibles: art, watches, jewellery, coins, wine, classic cars, coloured diamonds, handbags, furniture, and rare whisky—found that as a whole, the value of these collectibles rose 7% in the 12 months to the end of June.
While that outpaces the returns on some other assets, including prime property in central London (down 1% over the same time), the FTSE 100 Index (up by 5%), and gold (up 1%), it was the weakest annual performance for collectibles since the second quarter of 2021, Knight Frank said.
“Economic uncertainty and higher interest rates will cast a long shadow on luxury collectibles,” said Knight Frank’s Andrew Shirley, editor of the index. “Novice collectors should focus on what brings them joy, perhaps that’s more important now that value appreciation is far from guaranteed in these asset classes.”
Art topped the index by a long shot, growing in value by 30% in the year through the end of June, according to Art Market Research’s (AMR) All Art index, which uses data from auction sales worldwide.
However, those gains may have already peaked.
“The auction season’s spring sales are the first measure of market confidence and recent results suggest growth is already starting to slow,” AMR’s Sebastien Duthy said.
Following art, watches (10%), and jewellery (10%) rounded out the top-three best-performing collectibles of the past year.
Rare bottles of whisky were the only asset in the index to see values drop in the short term—down 4%—but collectible tipples ranked as the strongest 10-year performer, with prices rising 322% over the last decade.
“Bottles of rare whisky have had a far more sedate time from a performance perspective over the past three years,” industry consultant Andy Simpson, of Rare Whisky 101, said in the report. “Higher value (more than £5,000 (US$6,370)) bottles have re-traced recently due to a myriad of geo-political, social, and economic reasons.”
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Governments around the world are offering incentives to reverse a downward spiral that could threaten economic growth
The Australian birth rate is at a record low, new data has shown.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have revealed there were 286,998 births registered around the country last year, or 1.5 babies per woman.
Birth rates in Australia have been in a slow decline since the 1990s, down from 1.86 births per woman in 1993. Declining fertility rates among girls and women aged 15 to 19 years was most stark, down two thirds, while for women aged 40 to 44 years, the rate had almost doubled.
“The long-term decline in fertility of younger mums as well as the continued increase in fertility of older mums reflects a shift towards later childbearing,” said Beidar Cho, ABS head of demography statistics. “Together, this has resulted in a rise in median age of mothers to 31.9 years, and a fall in Australia’s total fertility rate.”
The fall in the Australian birth rate is in keeping with worldwide trends, with the United States also seeing fertility rates hit a 32-year low. The Lancet reported earlier this year that, based on current trends, by 2100 more than 97 percent of the world’s countries and territories “will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time”.
On a global scale, the Lancet reported that the total fertility rate had “more than halved over the past 70 years” from about five children per female in the 1950s to 2.2 children in 2021. In countries such as South Korea and Serbia, the rate is already less than 1.1 child for each female.
Governments around the world have tried to incentivise would-be parents, offering money, increased access to childcare and better paid maternity leave.
Experts have said without additional immigration, lower birth rates and an ageing population in Australia could put further pressure on young people, threaten economic growth and create economic uncertainty. However, a study released earlier this year by the University of Canberra showed the cost of raising a child to adulthood was between $474,000 and $1,097,000.
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