World’s Major Economies Fall Behind U.S.

Economies in the U.K. and Japan shrank at the end of last year, underlining the widening gulf between robust growth in the U.S. and more anemic conditions in the rest of the world.

The decline in activity in Japan came as a surprise to economists and meant that it has slipped in the global rankings of the world’s largest economies behind Germany and into fourth place.

In the U.K., the economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter, the shorthand definition of a recession. The U.K.’s statistics agency Thursday said gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the final three months of 2023, compared with a 3.3% increase in the U.S. over the same period.

U.K. consumer spending, the main driver of the U.K. economy, fell over the second half of 2023 even as wage growth outpaced inflation for the first time in two years, boosting consumers’ purchasing power. Japanese consumers, who are still seeing prices rise faster than wages, also cut their spending in the final quarter.

The growth numbers from the U.K. and Japan mirror similarly weak conditions in much of continental Europe and China .

The divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the rich world is in large part a story of surprising U.S. strength . The U.S. grew much faster than economists had expected it would at the start of 2023, while Europe was badly hit by high energy prices from the Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Economists forecast the growth gap will narrow somewhat over the course of the year, but remain wide.

U.S. consumer spending has been more resilient in the face of rising interest rates than in other parts of the world. Government spending in the U.S. has also remained at historically high levels for periods outside of recessions, giving the economy an added boost.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development earlier this month said it expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.1% this year, while it sees the U.K.’s economy growing by 0.7% and Germany’s economy by 0.3%.

To be sure, the declines in activity in Europe and Japan have been relatively modest and are a reflection of slow-growing economies that by nature fall into contraction more often than those that have a higher sustained level of growth.

And while economic output declined in a number of rich countries as 2023 drew to a close, job markets in Europe and Japan remained tight, as they were in the U.S. As a result, many economists hesitate to describe the U.K. and Japanese downturns as full-blown recessions.

Policymakers expect economies to pick up as inflation ebbs in the months ahead.

“We’re seeing some signs of a pickup,” Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey told lawmakers Wednesday.

Japan’s unemployment rate fell to an 11-month low in December, and the Bank of Japan ’s Tankan survey “showed that business conditions across all industries and firm sizes were the strongest they’ve been since 2018.”

Many economists expect the Bank of Japan to end its policy of negative short-term interest rates in either March or April, although the bank hasn’t confirmed that.

“We doubt that today’s GDP figures will prevent the Bank [of Japan] from ending negative interest rates in April,” said Marcel Thieliant , head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.

The decline in its GDP during the second half of the year, and the yen’s weakness relative to the euro, meant that Japan dropped from third place in the global rankings of economic heft when measured in U.S. dollars.

Germany takes over the third-place spot behind the U.S. and China, despite Europe’s largest economy contracting during 2023. Japan lost its second-place spot to China in 2010 .

It’s go time for the highest-stakes mission at NASA in more than 50 years.

On April 1, the agency is set to launch four astronauts around the moon, the deepest human spaceflight since the final Apollo lunar landing in 1972.

The launch window for Artemis II , as the mission is called, opens at 6:24 p.m. ET.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration teams have been preparing the vehicles to depart from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on the planned roughly 10-day trip. Crew members have trained for years for this moment.

Reid Wiseman, the NASA astronaut serving as mission commander, said he doesn’t fear taking the voyage. A widower, he does worry at times about what he is putting his daughters through.

“I could have a very comfortable life for them,” Wiseman said in an interview last September.

“But I’m also a human, and I see the spirit in their eyes that is burning in my soul too. And so we’ve just got to never stop going.”

Wiseman’s crewmates on Artemis II are NASA’s Victor Glover and Christina Koch, as well as Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen.

Photo: NASA’s Artemis II SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft being rolled out at night. Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/Getty Images

What are the goals for Artemis II?

The biggest one: Safely fly the crew on vehicles that have never carried astronauts before.

The towering Space Launch System rocket has the job of lofting a vehicle called Orion into space and on its way to the moon.

Orion is designed to carry the crew around the moon and back. Myriad systems on the ship—life support, communications, navigation—will be tested with the astronauts on board.

SLS and Orion don’t have much flight experience. The vehicles last flew in 2022, when the agency completed its uncrewed Artemis I mission .

How is the mission expected to unfold?

Artemis II will begin when SLS takes off from a launchpad in Florida with Orion stacked on top of it.

The so-called upper stage of SLS will later separate from the main part of the rocket with Orion attached, and use its engine to set up the latter vehicle for a push to the moon.

After Orion separates from the upper stage, it will conduct what is called a translunar injection—the engine firing that commits Orion to soaring out to the moon. It will fly to the moon over the course of a few days and travel around its far side.

Orion will face a tough return home after speeding through space. As it hits Earth’s atmosphere, Orion will be flying at 25,000 miles an hour and face temperatures of 5,000 degrees as it slows down. The capsule is designed to land under parachutes in the Pacific Ocean, not far from San Diego.

Water photo: NASA’s Orion capsule after its splash-down in the Pacific Ocean in 2022 for the Artemis I mission. Mario Tama/Press Pool

Is it possible Artemis II will be delayed?

Yes.

For safety reasons, the agency won’t launch if certain tough weather conditions roll through the Cape Canaveral, Fla., area. Delays caused by technical problems are possible, too. NASA has other dates identified for the mission if it doesn’t begin April 1.

Who are the astronauts flying on Artemis II?

The crew will be led by Wiseman, a retired Navy pilot who completed military deployments before joining NASA’s astronaut corps. He traveled to the International Space Station in 2014.

Two other astronauts will represent NASA during the mission: Glover, an experienced Navy pilot, and Koch, who began her career as an electrical engineer for the agency and once spent a year at a research station in the South Pole. Both have traveled to the space station before.

Hansen is a military pilot who joined Canada’s astronaut corps in 2009. He will be making his first trip to space.

Koch’s participation in Artemis II will mark the first time a woman has flown beyond orbits near Earth. Glover and Hansen will be the first African-American and non-American astronauts, respectively, to do the same.

What will the astronauts do during the flight?

The astronauts will evaluate how Orion flies, practice emergency procedures and capture images of the far side of the moon for scientific and exploration purposes (they may become the first humans to see parts of the far side of the lunar surface). Health-tracking projects of the astronauts are designed to inform future missions.

Those efforts will play out in Orion’s crew module, which has about two minivans worth of living area.

On board, the astronauts will spend about 30 minutes a day exercising, using a device that allows them to do dead lifts, rowing and more. Sleep will come in eight-hour stretches in hammocks.

There is a custom-made warmer for meals, with beef brisket and veggie quiche on the menu.

Each astronaut is permitted two flavored beverages a day, including coffee. The crew will hold one hourlong shared meal each day.

The Universal Waste Management System—that’s the toilet—uses air flow to pull fluid and solid waste away into containers.

What happens after Artemis II?

Assuming it goes well, NASA will march on to Artemis III, scheduled for next year. During that operation, NASA plans to launch Orion with crew members on board and have the ship practice docking with lunar-lander vehicles that Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin have been developing. The rendezvous operations will occur relatively close to Earth.

NASA hopes that its contractors and the agency itself are ready to attempt one or more lunar landing missions in 2028. Many current and former spaceflight officials are skeptical that timeline is feasible.

World’s Major Economies Fall Behind U.S.

The lunar flyby would be the deepest humans have traveled in space in decades.