Bitcoin Shoots Past $20,000. Why It’s the Best-Performing Investment of the Year.

Bitcoin crossed US$20,000 on Wednesday for the first time, the latest milestone in a rally that has made it the best-performing investment of 2020. Bitcoin was trading just above $20,500 on Wednesday morning, up 180% for the year.

Bitcoin has crossed $19,000 several times this year, after first hitting that number in 2017. But it consistently faltered just before hitting $20,000 and had fallen below $4,000 as recently as March.

It is nearly impossible to explain Bitcoin’s price changes, but analysts had described $20,000 as a key psychological level—like other big round market numbers that don’t mean very much on their own.

The rise has been fueled this year by institutions, which have been growing more comfortable with Bitcoin and even holding some on their balance sheets. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual), an institution that has been around for 169 years, announced last week that it had bought $100 million in Bitcoin, joining companies like Square (ticker: SQ) that have already bought in.

The enthusiasm is filtering down to retail investors, who now have more options to buy crypto, including through their PayPal Holdings (PYPL) accounts.

News that big companies are buying in “swells consumer interest,” says Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, a financial advisory and fintech firm.

There is no generally accepted way to value Bitcoin, and it produces no cash flows. But high demand can spur price increases, because the cryptocurrency’s software limits its supply to 21 million. More than 18.5 million Bitcoins have already been created.

If Bitcoin can hold this level, some analysts are predicting sharp moves higher.

“If Bitcoin is able to stay meaningfully above $20,000 for a few days, we would expect prices to move significantly higher over the next six months,” says Greg King, CEO of Osprey Funds, the digital asset subsidiary of REX Shares.

But exciting numbers like $20,000 can be dangerous with a volatile asset like this. Cryptocurrency exchange OKEx and blockchain data firm Kaiko released a report this month showing that large traders tend to sell their positions just as smaller traders jump in — meaning the “smart money” may be unloading crypto as soon as they see hype-fueled rallies like this. And with selling pressure, the price can turn south in a hurry.

“When Bitcoin rallies, the market tends to forget previous, long-drawn-out bearish stretches, and the sentiment shifts to manic euphoria,” the report notes.

Australia is in the midst of a ‘baby recession’ with preliminary estimates showing the number of births in 2023 fell by more than four percent to the lowest level since 2006, according to KPMG. The consultancy firm says this reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on the feasibility of younger Australians starting a family.

KPMG estimates that 289,100 babies were born in 2023. This compares to 300,684 babies in 2022 and 309,996 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said weak economic growth often leads to a reduced number of births. In 2023, ABS data shows gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 1.5 percent. Despite the population growing by 2.5 percent in 2023, GDP on a per capita basis went into negative territory, down one percent over the 12 months.

“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” said Mr Rawnsley. “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

Mr Rawnsley said many Australian couples delayed starting a family while the pandemic played out in 2020. The number of births fell from 305,832 in 2019 to 294,369 in 2020. Then in 2021, strong employment and vast amounts of stimulus money, along with high household savings due to lockdowns, gave couples better financial means to have a baby. This led to a rebound in births.

However, the re-opening of the global economy in 2022 led to soaring inflation. By the start of 2023, the Australian consumer price index (CPI) had risen to its highest level since 1990 at 7.8 percent per annum. By that stage, the Reserve Bank had already commenced an aggressive rate-hiking strategy to fight inflation and had raised the cash rate every month between May and December 2022.

Five more rate hikes during 2023 put further pressure on couples with mortgages and put the brakes on family formation. “This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates we have observed over the past four years,” Mr Rawnsley said.

The impact of high costs of living on couples’ decision to have a baby is highlighted in births data for the capital cities. KPMG estimates there were 60,860 births in Sydney in 2023, down 8.6 percent from 2019. There were 56,270 births in Melbourne, down 7.3 percent. In Perth, there were 25,020 births, down 6 percent, while in Brisbane there were 30,250 births, down 4.3 percent. Canberra was the only capital city where there was no fall in the number of births in 2023 compared to 2019.

“CPI growth in Canberra has been slightly subdued compared to that in other major cities, and the economic outlook has remained strong,” Mr Rawnsley said. “This means families have not been hurting as much as those in other capital cities, and in turn, we’ve seen a stabilisation of births in the ACT.”

Bitcoin Shoots Past $20,000. Why It’s the Best-Performing Investment of the Year.

Continued stagflation and cost of living pressures are causing couples to think twice about starting a family, new data has revealed, with long term impacts expected