Boeing Stock Got Hammered. Why This Analyst Downgrade Terrified Investors.

Boeing stock has fallen to its lowest level since 2022 after a downgrade from a Wall Street analyst put a number on one of investors’ worst fears: stock dilution.

Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers on Tuesday downgraded Boeing stock to the equivalent of Sell from Hold. His price target was reduced to $119 a share from $185.

That is the lowest target price on Wall Street by almost $70 a share, according to FactSet. At $119 a share, down about 30% from recent levels, Boeing would have a market value of roughly $73 billion, levels not seen since early 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Boeing stock closed down 7.3% at $161.02, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively. It was the lowest close since Nov. 4, 2022, when it finished at $160.01, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“We think Boeing had a generational free cash flow opportunity this decade, driven by ramping production on mature aircraft and low investment need,” wrote Akers. “But after extensive delays and added cost, we now see growing production cash flow running into a undefined new aircraft investment cycle, capping free cash flow a few years out.”

At this point in its product cycle, Boeing simply should be generating north of $10 billion in free cash flow a year. However, production and quality problems have pushed output lower and added costs. Wall Street sees Boeing using almost $8 billion in cash to fund operations in 2024.

What is more, Boeing likely will need to design a new single-aisle jet in the coming years to better compete with the Airbus A321 family of aircraft. That will take tens of billions of dollars spread out over several years.

Akers sees $30 billion in equity being raised by 2026 to help cover the cost of new investment. Some of that hefty total will go toward repairing Boeing’s balance sheet. The company ended the second quarter with more than $53 billion in long-term debt, up from less than $11 billion at the end of 2018, before the pandemic and significant problems with Boeing’s 737 MAX jet.

Raising $30 billion of equity at recent prices would require issuing roughly 190 million new shares, increasing the share count by about 31%. All things being equal, a higher share count reduces earnings per share.

“If Boeing were to postpone new plane development for several more years (launch early next decade) and instead just pay down debt, we estimate free cash flow per share could grow to about ~$20 late this decade,” added Akers. That might justify a $150 share price in coming years, but postponing a new plane would mean “ ceding significant narrowbody share” to Airbus.

Narrowbody is industry jargon for single-aisle aircraft such as the 737 MAX or A320.

Raising equity and offering customers a new plane, or not offering a new jet and holding off on raising equity: Boeing doesn’t have easy choices to make in coming years.

Overall, 60% of analysts covering Boeing stock rate shares at Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. Even though Boeing’s Buy-rating ratio is above average, it has been sliding. Coming into the year, before an emergency- door plug blew out in midair on an Alaska Air flight on Jan. 5, the ratio was north of 75%.

The average analyst price target for Boeing shares is about $214.

Making sure you claim everything you’re legitimately eligible for can have a big impact on your annual discretionary income. But do you know what you can claim?

What is tax deductible?

When completing your tax return, bear in mind that there are a number of tax deductions you can claim against expenses related to your work. What each person can claim will vary depending on their occupation. To make a deduction for a work-related expense, you need to have spent the money yourself without being reimbursed by work, and the cost needs to directly relate to earning your income. You’re also going to need a record to prove the expense, usually a receipt.

While travel expenses, home office expenses, education and mobile phone expenses are commonly claimed, there are a number of deductions often overlooked that you may be able to claim when completing your tax return.

Artwork

Regardless of why you bought your latest artwork, the Australian Taxation Office views artwork as both an investment and a depreciating asset, meaning you can claim it as a tax deduction. How much you can claim will be determined by the size of your business and whether you are an employee.

If you work from home, you can claim a deduction for your artwork up to the value of $300 as part of your home office expenditure. Small and medium sized business owners can make a much higher claim for artwork.

An apartment in another city

Investment properties purchased away from your home that you stay in when travelling for work can be claimed.

Under ATO guidelines, if you’re required to work away from home and you choose to rent or buy an apartment in the other work location rather than relying on hotel accommodation, you can claim a deduction for the work-related costs that apply to the apartment. This includes rent or interest on the mortgage.

Work handbag

Each year, you are allowed to claim a bag that you use for work. This could be a laptop bag or backpack used for carrying work-related items, but claiming a designer luxury handbag, may raise a few eyebrows at the ATO. If you carry your laptop, tablet and paperwork in a bag for work, then claim it. If you’re using it for gym equipment or your lunch, don’t.

COVID tests

The ATO will let you claim the cost of a COVID test if it was used to see whether you are sick and therefore unable to attend work. This is particularly the case if you’re in a customer-facing role and you need to purchase the test to stop the spread of the disease.

Man’s best friend

In some limited circumstances, you may be able to claim a deduction for the cost of buying and caring for a dog if they assist in your occupation. The two most common scenarios for this claim are farming and security reasons.

A caravan

The ATO allows for travel expense claims and there have been instances where taxpayers have claimed a caravan — and it was accepted. If you travel extensively for work and a caravan is saving you from paying for a hotel room, you may be able to apportion the deduction if it is used for work, rather than private use.

Meals away from home

If you’re travelling for work, you can claim the cost of meals when you travel and stay away from home overnight. You may also be able to claim a deduction for the cost of a meal you buy and consume when working overtime.

Media subscriptions

Many media publications are now subscription-based and can be deductible if they relate to your profession. This includes subscriptions to newspapers, professional magazines and podcasts that are linked to your profession.

Desk lamps and stationery

You don’t have to be running a business from home to make work-related claims. If you have a dedicated workspace at home where you’re doing a few hours of work at home a week, you can claim a number of related items, including lamps, stationery, a shredder and printer cartridges.

Protective clothing

If it’s related to your work, you can claim
the cost of buying items like fire resistant clothing, steel-capped boots, hi-vis vests or sun protection. This can apply to people working directly on site, like construction workers, but also related industries, such as engineers and architects who visit.

Depending on your industry, you can claim items that relate to your work, including a bullet proof vest if you’re a police officer or anything used that relates to your performance if you’re a professional athlete. Media professionals can also claim sunglasses if they are required to be out in the sun in the course of their work.

While you’re at it, you may also be able to claim the costs to clean occupation-specific clothing, so ask your tax accountant.

Tax accountancy fees

Last but not least, the fees you pay for the preparation of your annual tax return if you used a tax agent to prepare and lodge your tax return can be claimed on this year’s tax return.

The ATO has a number of online tools and calculators to help you calculate your deduction correctly, including work from home, self-education and car expenses.

Visit the ATO website and type ‘calculators’ into the search bar.