China’s Economy Shows Signs of Stabilizing

China’s economy is showing signs of stabilising but the improvements are decelerating. That could leave it in an L-shaped recovery—where the economy doesn’t see an upturn—that is unlikely to excite investors.

The iShares MSCI China ETF (ticker: MCHI) is down 11% so far this year. China’s recovery from three years of Covid restrictions has underwhelmed, there are concerns about the country’s longer term growth prospects, and geopolitical tensions loom.

While most analysts expect China to hit its 5% economic growth target, that may keep officials from bigger stimulus efforts, resulting in a recovery that is still anemic.

Indeed, a spate of October data from independent research firm China Beige Book show areas such as the property market still struggling to find a bottom, while there has been a slowdown in consumer spending.

Housing sales have softened in October from a month earlier and commercial real estate has had its worst showing this year. Both factory production and domestic orders also slowed.

Consumer spending is cooling, with households pulling back from big-ticket items including cars and appliances. They also are reducing their revenge spending on travel and dining out in recent months, according to China Beige Book.

Still, analysts are feeling more confident Beijing will do what is needed to create some stability, especially after it approved an additional $1 trillion renminbi government bond issuance to support infrastructure investment.

The debt will be issued not by local governments but by the sovereign, pushing headline deficit to 3.8% of GDP. It is a surprise move indicating political will to put a floor under economic activity, but also the latest signal of pain in the economy, says TS Lombard’s Rory Green in a note to clients.

Central authorities are trying to put a floor on equities, with reports Central Huijin Investment Limited—which is a part of the sovereign-wealth fund—bought exchange-traded funds. And authorities are trying to limit weakness in the yuan as part of stimulus efforts, he adds.

The next guideposts are a Politburo meeting in November and a Central Economic Work Conference in December that could offer clues to next year’s growth and fiscal outlook.

Green expects more emphasis on reallocating resources to technology sectors aligned with Beijing’s efforts to become more self-reliant, and a possible plan on how officials resolve local government debt burden.

For many Australians, the 2026 Federal Budget initially felt like a direct challenge to the way wealth is created, held and transferred between generations.

The headlines were immediate: changes to capital gains tax, reforms to discretionary trusts, restrictions on negative gearing and increased scrutiny of investment structures. Unsurprisingly, affluent families, business owners and investors began asking the same question:

Is the way we hold our wealth still fit for purpose?

In recent days, the government has announced several significant amendments following industry consultation and public feedback, including exempting testamentary trusts from the proposed 30 per cent minimum tax and expanding capital gains tax concessions for small businesses.

The backdown is welcome. But it also highlights something much bigger.

This Budget has accelerated a conversation that many Australian families have been postponing for years.

The conversation is not really about tax. It is about wealth stewardship.

For decades, Australians have built wealth through businesses, property, investments and careful long-term planning. Yet many families have not revisited the legal structures surrounding those assets in years, sometimes decades.

We often see clients who have spent years building significant wealth, only to discover their legal arrangements no longer reflect their current circumstances.

Their children are now adults. They may own multiple properties.

They may have sold a business, entered a second marriage, become grandparents or accumulated digital assets that did not exist when their original estate plans were prepared.

The trust that distributes income may need to be reconsidered. The bucket company may no longer be so attractive.

The Budget has simply exposed a reality that already existed: wealth structures cannot remain static while life continues to evolve.

Importantly, trusts themselves are not the issue.

Trusts are legitimate planning tools that provide flexibility, protection and continuity. When used appropriately, they allow families to adapt to changing circumstances over time.

And neither is tax the issue, really. Getting the fundamentals right is more important for long-term, sustainable wealth than a few favourable tax treatments around the edges.

The real issue is complacency.

Too often, families create structures and assume the job is done. It isn’t.

Estate planning is no longer a document you sign once and file away in a drawer. It is an ongoing process that should evolve alongside your life.

We are also seeing a broader shift in how Australians define wealth itself. It is no longer just the family home and an investment portfolio.

Modern wealth includes businesses, digital assets, cryptocurrency, intellectual property, frequent flyer points and increasingly complex family arrangements.

At the same time, Australians are living longer than ever before, meaning wealth may need to support multiple generations simultaneously. This creates new responsibilities and new risks.

How do you help your children enter the property market without exposing family wealth to relationship breakdowns?

How do you structure wealth so that it remains a source of opportunity rather than future conflict?

These are the questions families should be asking now.

The recent debate surrounding testamentary trusts also serves as an important reminder that policy decisions can have unintended consequences for vulnerable Australians. It is encouraging that the government has listened to feedback and clarified its position.

But the lesson remains: the wealth landscape is changing.

Increasingly, governments, regulators and tax authorities are paying closer attention to how wealth is held and transferred. That means families cannot afford to adopt a “set-and-forget” approach to their structures.

The families who will be best placed for the future are not necessarily those with the greatest wealth.

They are the families with the greatest clarity. Clarity around ownership, succession and governance. And clarity around how wealth will transition from one generation to the next.

Ultimately, preserving wealth is not about avoiding change.

It is about preparing for it.

Because the greatest risk is not change itself.

It is losing the ability to respond to it.

Anthony Hunt is Co-Founder of Wealth Lawyers and former COO of Westpac Private Bank. He advises business owners, investors and affluent Australian families on wealth protection, succession planning and intergenerational wealth transfer

China’s Economy Shows Signs of Stabilizing—and a Slower Recovery

The Federal Budget may have softened some of its proposed tax reforms, but it has exposed a bigger issue: too many families are relying on wealth structures that no longer reflect the realities of modern life.