HOW TO MINIMISE THE BIGGEST RISKS IN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTING
Commercial property can deliver strong returns, but the risks are real. Here’s how to spot the danger zones and protect your investment.
2 min
Commercial property can deliver higher yields, longer leases, and more passive income than residential. But with greater returns come greater risks. The rules are different, the stakes are higher, and one misstep can turn a promising asset into a financial burden.
Here, property expert Abdullah Nouh outlines five of the biggest risks in commercial investing and how to manage them strategically.
1. Vacancy risk
Vacancies in commercial property cut deeper than in residential. An empty building means no rent, yet you’re still footing the bill for rates, insurance and maintenance.
This is especially dangerous in oversupplied markets. In major CBDs like Melbourne and Sydney, office vacancy rates have climbed as high as 30 per cent. In such environments, landlords often need to offer high-end fit-outs or generous incentives to attract tenants.
How to minimise it: Invest in tightly held, high-demand locations. Choose properties with secure, long-term leases and flexible layouts that can suit multiple industries if a tenant moves out.
2. Weak lease structures
Not all leases offer equal protection. Some may appear strong – long-term, high rent, decent yield – but lack real security for the landlord. Some tenants can exit with minimal penalty. Others sign inflated leases that look good on sale but collapse at renewal.
How to minimise it: Scrutinise lease terms. Know how rent increases are structured, whether there are break clauses, and whether the rent reflects market conditions. Favour leases with guarantees, security deposits, or cash bonds – and always vet the financial health of the tenant.
3. Overpaying
A high yield doesn’t always mean a good deal. A 7.5 per cent return from a regional tenant in a shaky industry may be far riskier than a 5.5 per cent return from a stable, ASX-listed tenant in a prime location. Chasing numbers without context exposes you to tenant defaults, falling rents, or limited resale options.
How to minimise it: Focus on tenant quality and lease sustainability, not just the headline yield. Understand the tenant’s industry and how it might weather an economic downturn. Always base your valuation on true market rent – not inflated or unsustainable figures.
4, Market volatility
Commercial sectors respond differently to economic shifts. Retail has been hit by e-commerce, while office spaces face challenges from hybrid working. Yet some sectors – logistics, healthcare, childcare – have proven resilient.
How to minimise it: Target essential services less vulnerable to economic cycles. Stay across industry trends and adjust your portfolio as needed. Diversify across sectors and regions to spread risk.
5. Finance and liquidity
Commercial finance is trickier than residential. It requires larger deposits, stricter checks, and often hinges on lease strength, not your personal income. Selling can also be slower – especially if your tenant is weak or the lease is short.
How to minimise it: Use brokers who understand lease-doc lending, where loans are based on rental income. Buy properties with strong leases in prime locations to ensure broader buyer appeal. Always plan your exit strategy and maintain cash buffers to manage tenant turnover or delayed sales.
Commercial property isn’t for everyone – but for those who know the risks and manage them well, it can be a powerful tool for building wealth. Smart investors don’t just buy for today. They plan for what could go wrong and structure their deals to survive it.
Abdullah Nouh is the founder of Mecca Property Group, a boutique buyer’s agency in Melbourne, helping Australians build wealth through strategic property investment.
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Parts for iPhones to cost more owing to surging demand from AI companies.
4 min
Apple has dominated the electronics supply chain for years. No more.
Artificial-intelligence companies are writing huge checks for chips, memory, specialised glass fibre and more, and they have begun to out-duel Apple in the race to secure components.
Suppliers accustomed to catering to Apple’s every whim are gaining the leverage to demand that the iPhone maker pay more.
Apple’s normally generous profit margins will face pressure this year, analysts say, and consumers could eventually feel the hit.
Chief Executive Tim Cook mentioned the problem in a Thursday earnings call, saying Apple was seeing constraints in its chip supplies and that memory prices were increasing significantly.
Those comments appeared to weigh on Apple shares, which traded flat despite blowout iPhone sales and record company profit.
“Apple is getting squeezed for sure,” said Sravan Kundojjala, who analyses the industry for research firm SemiAnalysis.
AI chip leader Nvidia recently became the largest customer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing , or TSMC, Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang said on a podcast.
Apple had been TSMC’s biggest customer by a wide margin for years. TSMC is the world’s leading manufacturer of advanced chips for AI servers, smartphones and other computing devices.
Spokesmen for Apple and TSMC declined to comment.
The big computers that handle AI tasks don’t look like the smartphones consumers own, but many companies supply components for both. In particular, memory chips are in short supply as companies such as OpenAI, Alphabet’s Google, Meta , Microsoft and others collectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars to build AI computing capacity.
“The rate of increase in the price of memory is unprecedented,” said Mike Howard , an analyst for research firm TechInsights.
That applies both to the flash memory chips that store photos and videos, called NAND, as well as the memory used to run apps quickly, called DRAM.
By the end of this year, the price of DRAM will quadruple from 2023 levels, and NAND will more than triple, estimates TechInsights.
Howard estimates that Apple could pay $57 more for the two types of memory that go into the base-model iPhone 18 due this fall compared with the base model iPhone 17 currently on sale. For a device that retails for $799, that would be a big hit to profit margins.
Apple’s purchasing power and expertise in designing advanced electronics long made it an unrivaled Goliath among the Asian companies that make most of the iPhone’s parts and assemble the device.
Apple spends billions of dollars a year on NAND, for instance, according to people familiar with the figures, likely making it the single biggest buyer globally. Suppliers flocked to win Apple’s business, hoping to leverage its know-how and prestige to attract other customers.
These days, however, “the companies now pushing the boundaries of human‑scale engineering are the ones like Nvidia,” said Ming-chi Kuo, an analyst with TF International Securities.
Demand for AI hardware is poised to keep growing rapidly. Apple’s spending growth is modest in comparison with what is being spent to fill up AI data centers, even though it is breaking records with huge sales of the iPhone 17.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are raising the price of a type of DRAM chip for Apple, according to people familiar with Apple’s supply chain.
Big AI companies pay generously and are willing to lock in supply and make upfront payments, giving the South Korean chip makers leverage against the iPhone maker.
Apple signs long-term contracts for memory, but it has used its heft to squeeze suppliers.
Its contracts have empowered it to negotiate prices as often as weekly, and to even refuse to buy any memory from a supplier if Apple didn’t view the price as favorable, according to people familiar with its memory purchases.
To boost leverage with suppliers, Apple even began stocking more inventory of memory. That was atypical for Cook, who normally cuts inventory to the bone to maximize Apple’s cash flow.
Apple is fighting not only for current deliveries but also for the attention of engineers at suppliers.
Glass scientists who worked on developing the smoothest and lightest smartphone displays are now also spending time on specialised glass for packaging advanced AI processing chips, according to industry executives.
Makers of sensors and other gizmos inside the iPhone are winning new business from AI companies such as OpenAI that are developing their own hardware.
Still, suppliers said they were far from giving up on business with Apple. Working with Apple is a form of education, they said, because it remains one of the most demanding and disciplined customers in the industry.
TSMC, the Taiwanese chip manufacturer, has built successive generations of its most advanced chips with Apple as its lead customer, relying on the big predictable demand for iPhones.
Now that TSMC is doing more business with Nvidia and other AI companies, people with knowledge of the chip supply chain said Apple was exploring whether some lower-end processors could be made by someone other than TSMC.
One of Apple’s biggest profit-spinners is selling extra memory for far more than the memory chips cost the company.
Last fall Apple discontinued the iPhone Pro model with 128 gigabytes of storage.
Customers who want that model must now start at 256 gigabytes and pay $100 more—the type of move that could be repeated this year to help Apple offset higher costs, wrote Craig Moffett, an analyst at Moffett Nathanson, in an investor note.
However, Apple isn’t expected to raise the price of its next iPhone models over similarly equipped iPhone 17s, said Kuo, the analyst.
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