Japanese Stocks Are in the Spotlight Again. Hopes Are High for 2025.
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    HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $1,638,545 (+0.82%)       Melbourne $1,023,679 (+1.75%)       Brisbane $1,038,818 (+0.18%)       Adelaide $951,068 (+0.69%)       Perth $923,390 (-0.21%)       Hobart $759,192 (-0.42%)       Darwin $769,355 (-0.10%)       Canberra $964,485 (-0.83%)       National $1,074,245 (+0.50%)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING PRICES AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $777,604 (+1.00%)       Melbourne $478,404 (+0.18%)       Brisbane $668,589 (+0.89%)       Adelaide $498,047 (-0.58%)       Perth $519,492 (+1.90%)       Hobart $528,197 (-0.03%)       Darwin $378,865 (-1.17%)       Canberra $494,950 (+0.08%)       National $567,655 (+0.60%)                HOUSES FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 11,855 (+190)       Melbourne 14,114 (-991)       Brisbane 8,271 (+242)       Adelaide 2,797 (+147)       Perth 7,549 (+147)       Hobart 1,213 (+7)       Darwin 181 (-4)       Canberra 1,228 (+25)       National 47,208 (-237)                UNITS FOR SALE AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,100 (+118)       Melbourne 6,842 (-31)       Brisbane 1,703 (+24)       Adelaide 418 (+32)       Perth 1,696 (+19)       Hobart 245 (+15)       Darwin 279 (+8)       Canberra 1,140 (-4)       National 21,423 (+181)                HOUSE MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $800 ($0)       Melbourne $590 ($0)       Brisbane $650 ($0)       Adelaide $620 ($0)       Perth $695 (-$5)       Hobart $555 (-$15)       Darwin $780 (+$20)       Canberra $700 ($0)       National $684 (+$1)                UNIT MEDIAN ASKING RENTS AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney $750 ($0)       Melbourne $600 ($0)       Brisbane $650 (+$5)       Adelaide $525 (+$25)       Perth $650 ($0)       Hobart $480 (-$13)       Darwin $570 (+$5)       Canberra $570 (-$10)       National $610 (+$1)                HOUSES FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 6,415 (-92)       Melbourne 8,122 (-49)       Brisbane 4,023 (-50)       Adelaide 1,424 (-45)       Perth 2,128 (-99)       Hobart 232 (+21)       Darwin 103 (-17)       Canberra 559 (-41)       National 23,006 (-372)                UNITS FOR RENT AND WEEKLY CHANGE     Sydney 9,115 (-492)       Melbourne 6,656 (-238)       Brisbane 2,047 (-142)       Adelaide 349 (-56)       Perth 639 (-48)       Hobart 107 (+5)       Darwin 178 (-21)       Canberra 550 (-3)       National 19,641 (-995)                HOUSE ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 2.54% (↓)       Melbourne 3.00% (↓)       Brisbane 3.25% (↓)       Adelaide 3.39% (↓)       Perth 3.91% (↓)       Hobart 3.80% (↓)     Darwin 5.27% (↑)      Canberra 3.77% (↑)        National 3.31% (↓)            UNIT ANNUAL GROSS YIELDS AND TREND         Sydney 5.02% (↓)       Melbourne 6.52% (↓)       Brisbane 5.06% (↓)     Adelaide 5.48% (↑)        Perth 6.51% (↓)       Hobart 4.73% (↓)     Darwin 7.82% (↑)        Canberra 5.99% (↓)       National 5.58% (↓)            HOUSE RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 2.0% (↑)      Melbourne 1.9% (↑)      Brisbane 1.4% (↑)      Adelaide 1.3% (↑)      Perth 1.2% (↑)      Hobart 1.0% (↑)      Darwin 1.6% (↑)      Canberra 2.7% (↑)      National 1.7% (↑)             UNIT RENTAL VACANCY RATES AND TREND       Sydney 2.4% (↑)      Melbourne 3.8% (↑)      Brisbane 2.0% (↑)      Adelaide 1.1% (↑)      Perth 0.9% (↑)      Hobart 1.4% (↑)      Darwin 2.8% (↑)      Canberra 2.9% (↑)      National 2.2% (↑)             AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL HOUSES AND TREND         Sydney 29.5 (↓)       Melbourne 31.6 (↓)       Brisbane 31.5 (↓)       Adelaide 26.2 (↓)       Perth 41.1 (↓)       Hobart 33.2 (↓)       Darwin 24.8 (↓)       Canberra 32.7 (↓)       National 31.3 (↓)            AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL UNITS AND TREND         Sydney 25.4 (↓)       Melbourne 31.6 (↓)       Brisbane 27.4 (↓)       Adelaide 23.7 (↓)       Perth 41.0 (↓)       Hobart 26.8 (↓)       Darwin 45.2 (↓)       Canberra 43.3 (↓)       National 33.0 (↓)           
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Japanese Stocks Are in the Spotlight Again. Hopes Are High for 2025.

By RESHMA KAPADIA
Fri, Jan 3, 2025 10:42amGrey Clock 4 min

U.S. investors’ enthusiasm over Japanese stocks at this time last year turned out to be misplaced, but the market is again on the list of potential ways to diversify. Corporate shake-ups, hints of inflation after years of declining prices, and a trade battle could work in its favor.

Japanese stocks started 2024 off strong, but an unexpected interest-rate increase in August by the Bank of Japan triggered a sharp decline that the market has spent the rest of the year clawing back. Weakness in the yen has cut into returns in dollar terms. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF , which isn’t hedged, barely returned 7% last year, compared with 30% for the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund .

The market is relatively cheap, trading at 15 times forward earnings, about where it was a decade ago, and events on the horizon could give it a boost. Masakazu Takeda, who runs the Hennessy Japan fund, expects earnings growth of mid-single digits—2% after inflation and an additional 2% to 3% as companies return more to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

“We can easily get 10% plus returns if there’s no exogenous risks,” Takeda told Barron’s in December.

The first couple months of the year could be volatile as investors assess potential spoilers, such as whether the new Trump administration limits its tariff battle to China or goes wider, which would hurt Japan’s export-dependent market. The size of the wage increases labor unions secure in spring negotiations is another risk.

But beyond the headlines, fund managers and strategists see potential positive factors. First, 2024 will likely turn out to have been a record year for corporate earnings because some companies have benefited from rising prices and increasing demand, as well as better capital allocation.

In a note to clients, BofA strategist Masashi Akutsu said the market may again focus on a shift in corporate behavior that has begun to take place in recent years. For years, corporate culture has been resistant to change but recent developments—a battle over Seven & i Holdings that pits the founding family and investors against a bid from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard , and Honda and Nissan ’s merger are examples—have been a wake-up call for Japanese companies to pursue overhauls. He expects a pickup in share buybacks as companies begin to think about shareholder returns more.

A record number of companies have also delisted, often through management buyouts, in another indication that corporate behavior is changing in favor of shareholders.

“Japan is attracting a lot of activist interest in a lot of different guises, says Donald Farquharson, head of the Japanese equities team for Baillie Gifford. “While shareholder proposals are usually unsuccessful, they do start in motion a process behind the scenes about the capital structure.”

For years, money-losing businesses were left alone in large corporations, but the recent spate of activism and focus on shareholder returns has pushed companies to jettison such divisions or take measures to improve them.

That isn‘t to say it is going to be an easy year. A more protectionist world could be problematic for sentiment.

But Japan’s approach could become a model for others in this new world. “Japan has spent the last 30 to 40 years investing in business overseas, with the automotive industry, for example, manufacturing a lot of the cars in the geographies it sells in,” Farquharson said. “That’s true of a lot of what Japan is selling overseas.”

Trade volatility that hits Japanese stocks broadly could offer opportunities. Concerns about tariffs could drag down companies such as Tokio Marine Holdings, which gets half its earnings by selling insurance in the U.S., but wouldn’t be affected by duties. Similarly, Shin-Etsu Chemicals , a silicon wafer behemoth that sells critical materials, including to the chip industry, is another potential winner, Takeda says.

If other companies follow the lead of Japanese exporters and set up shop in the markets they sell in, Japanese automation makers like Nidec and Keyence might benefit as a way to control costs in countries where wages are higher, Farquharson says.

And as Japanese workers get real wage growth and settle into living in an economy no longer in a deflationary rut, companies focused on domestic consumers such as Rakuten Group should benefit. The internet company offers retail and travel, both of which should benefit, but also is home to an online banking and investment platform.

Rakuten’s enterprise value—its market capitalization plus debt—is still less than its annual sales, in part because the company had been investing heavily in its mobile network. But that division is about to hit break even, Farquharson says.

A stock that stands to benefit from consumer spending and the waves or tourists the weak yen is attracting is Orix , a conglomerate whose businesses include an international airport serving Osaka. The company’s aircraft-leasing business also benefits from the production snags and supply-chain disruptions at Airbus and Boeing , Takeda says.

An added benefit: Its financial businesses stand to get a boost as the Bank of Japan slowly normalizes interest rates. The stock trades at about nine times earnings and about par for book value, while paying a 4% dividend yield.

Corrections & Amplifications: The past year is expected to turn out to have been a record one for corporate earnings in Japan. An earlier version of this article incorrectly gave the time frame as the 12 months through March. Separately, Masashi Akutsu is a strategist at BofA. An earlier version incorrectly identified his employer as UBS.



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National Australia Bank said that higher credit impairments against business loans contributed to a small fall in its unaudited December quarter cash earnings.

NAB , which is Australia’s second-largest bank by market capitalization, on Wednesday posted unaudited cash earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 1.74 billion Australian dollars, equivalent to about US$1.11 billion.

That was down 2% on the average of its prior two fiscal quarters. NAB did not give a year-earlier comparison.

The lender said that revenue grew by 3% compared with the average of its prior two fiscal quarters. Underlying profit growth of 4% over the same period was offset by higher credit impairment charges and income tax expenses, it added.

NAB, which posted an unaudited quarterly statutory profit of A$1.70 billion, said the A$267 million credit impairment charge included A$152 million of individually assessed charges. Those were mainly against Australian businesses and unsecured retail portfolios, it said.

The individual charges were up by 54% compared with a year earlier. NAB said that it had not altered its economic assumptions and scenario weightings.

“The economic outlook is improving but cost of living and interest rate challenges persisted,” Chief Executive Andrew Irvine said. “While most customers are proving resilient, we have maintained prudent balance sheet settings.”

NAB said it had seen a small decline in net interest margin due to funding costs, lending competition and deposits, partially offset by the benefit of higher interest rates.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the country’s cash rate for the first time since 2020 but warned against expecting subsequent near-term cuts.

NAB is still targeting full fiscal-year productivity savings of more than A$400 million, and for operating expenses to grow by less than 4.5%, Irvine said.

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11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

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