Rates on hold again as the RBA continues to exercise caution

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today, dashing hopes of an early Christmas present for mortgage holders.

In a widely anticipated decision, the RBA has once again cited persistently high inflation as the reason for the pause. While acknowledging inflation has fallen substantially since it peaked at 7.8 percent in December 2022, the board said in a statement that there was still work to be done.

“Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance,” the RBA board said in a statement. “Measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5 percent, which is still some way from the 2.5 percent midpoint of the inflation target.

“The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.”

In further signals that a rate cut is still some way off, the board noted that the economic outlook remained ‘uncertain’ both in Australia and overseas, where some central banks have made cuts to their cash rates in recent months.

“There remains a high level of uncertainty about the outlook abroad. Most central banks have eased monetary policy as they become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably back towards their respective targets,” the board said.

“They note, however, that they are removing only some restrictiveness and remain alert to risks in both directions, namely weaker labour markets and stronger inflation. “Geopolitical uncertainties remain pronounced.”

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the RBA board’s decision to stick to its ‘steady as she goes’ approach was finely balanced.

“Tight labour market conditions, juxtaposed with a combination of low productivity growth, weak economic conditions and high inflation demonstrates the ‘narrow path’ the RBA is traversing, keeping rates high while avoiding a recession or blow out in the unemployment rate,” Mr Lawless said.

“So far, the RBA has held to this path; the economy has staved off a recession, albeit largely due to population growth and government spending.

“Similarly, households are battling through a seven-quarter ‘per capita’ recession that has been compounded by a period of negative real income growth and a depletion of savings, yet we haven’t seen mortgage arrears rise beyond 2 percent.”

He noted that, despite the lack of movement in the cash rate, home values were up 5.5 percent over the past year, although there was now evidence the heat was coming out of the market.

“Home purchasing is winding down, total listing numbers rising, the clearance rate is falling and homes are taking longer to sell,” he said. “Affordability may increasingly see buyers drop out of the market amid high interest rate settings.”

Based on the data, he said it was still likely mortgage holders could see a rate drop in the first half of 2025. The RBA board will meet again in February.

For many Australians, the 2026 Federal Budget initially felt like a direct challenge to the way wealth is created, held and transferred between generations.

The headlines were immediate: changes to capital gains tax, reforms to discretionary trusts, restrictions on negative gearing and increased scrutiny of investment structures. Unsurprisingly, affluent families, business owners and investors began asking the same question:

Is the way we hold our wealth still fit for purpose?

In recent days, the government has announced several significant amendments following industry consultation and public feedback, including exempting testamentary trusts from the proposed 30 per cent minimum tax and expanding capital gains tax concessions for small businesses.

The backdown is welcome. But it also highlights something much bigger.

This Budget has accelerated a conversation that many Australian families have been postponing for years.

The conversation is not really about tax. It is about wealth stewardship.

For decades, Australians have built wealth through businesses, property, investments and careful long-term planning. Yet many families have not revisited the legal structures surrounding those assets in years, sometimes decades.

We often see clients who have spent years building significant wealth, only to discover their legal arrangements no longer reflect their current circumstances.

Their children are now adults. They may own multiple properties.

They may have sold a business, entered a second marriage, become grandparents or accumulated digital assets that did not exist when their original estate plans were prepared.

The trust that distributes income may need to be reconsidered. The bucket company may no longer be so attractive.

The Budget has simply exposed a reality that already existed: wealth structures cannot remain static while life continues to evolve.

Importantly, trusts themselves are not the issue.

Trusts are legitimate planning tools that provide flexibility, protection and continuity. When used appropriately, they allow families to adapt to changing circumstances over time.

And neither is tax the issue, really. Getting the fundamentals right is more important for long-term, sustainable wealth than a few favourable tax treatments around the edges.

The real issue is complacency.

Too often, families create structures and assume the job is done. It isn’t.

Estate planning is no longer a document you sign once and file away in a drawer. It is an ongoing process that should evolve alongside your life.

We are also seeing a broader shift in how Australians define wealth itself. It is no longer just the family home and an investment portfolio.

Modern wealth includes businesses, digital assets, cryptocurrency, intellectual property, frequent flyer points and increasingly complex family arrangements.

At the same time, Australians are living longer than ever before, meaning wealth may need to support multiple generations simultaneously. This creates new responsibilities and new risks.

How do you help your children enter the property market without exposing family wealth to relationship breakdowns?

How do you structure wealth so that it remains a source of opportunity rather than future conflict?

These are the questions families should be asking now.

The recent debate surrounding testamentary trusts also serves as an important reminder that policy decisions can have unintended consequences for vulnerable Australians. It is encouraging that the government has listened to feedback and clarified its position.

But the lesson remains: the wealth landscape is changing.

Increasingly, governments, regulators and tax authorities are paying closer attention to how wealth is held and transferred. That means families cannot afford to adopt a “set-and-forget” approach to their structures.

The families who will be best placed for the future are not necessarily those with the greatest wealth.

They are the families with the greatest clarity. Clarity around ownership, succession and governance. And clarity around how wealth will transition from one generation to the next.

Ultimately, preserving wealth is not about avoiding change.

It is about preparing for it.

Because the greatest risk is not change itself.

It is losing the ability to respond to it.

Anthony Hunt is Co-Founder of Wealth Lawyers and former COO of Westpac Private Bank. He advises business owners, investors and affluent Australian families on wealth protection, succession planning and intergenerational wealth transfer

Rates on hold again as the RBA continues to exercise caution

The board adhers to its policy of taking the ‘narrow path’ to keep the Australian economy on track, avoiding a recession while the property market shows signs of resilience

The Federal Budget may have softened some of its proposed tax reforms, but it has exposed a bigger issue: too many families are relying on wealth structures that no longer reflect the realities of modern life.