RBA lifts rates to 4.60% as inflation risks become reality
Inflation risks are materialising, prompting the RBA’s fourth rate increase of 2026. Here’s what changed and what Michele Bullock said
5 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered its fourth interest-rate increase of 2026, lifting the cash-rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent and warning that further tightening remains possible.
The unanimous decision on 29 September takes the cash rate to its highest level in almost 15 years. More importantly, it confirms that the RBA’s concern has shifted from inflation risks that might materialise to price pressures that are already spreading through the economy.
The increase was widely expected after a series of hawkish comments from senior RBA officials. Financial-market sentiment now remains tilted towards rates staying higher for longer, with some analysts expecting at least one further increase. Yet the decision is not straightforwardly hawkish: the economy is slowing, house prices are falling and household budgets are under mounting pressure. The RBA is tightening because inflation has proved stronger than anticipated, not because the economy is booming.
A significant change in the statement
The clearest change from the RBA’s August statement is the transition from warning about upside risks to declaring that those risks are “materialising”.
In August, the Board left the cash rate at 4.35 per cent to assess the effects of three earlier increases. It said inflation remained too high and acknowledged that the Middle East conflict, elevated energy costs, weak productivity and strong investment related to artificial intelligence could create further price pressure. However, those concerns were still framed principally as risks to the forecast.
The September statement is more definitive. Recent Australian inflation was stronger than the RBA expected, while output growth in the June quarter was also marginally stronger. Businesses consulted through the Bank’s liaison program reported that they were either raising prices or considering doing so. Short-term inflation expectations remained elevated.
The international picture has also deteriorated. The conflict in the Middle East has broadened, oil supplies have suffered further disruption and global energy prices are materially higher than the assumptions used in the RBA’s August forecasts. Higher fuel costs are now being passed through, at least partially, to the prices of other goods and services.
This distinction matters. Central banks generally try to look through a temporary increase in petrol prices because higher interest rates cannot produce more oil or end an overseas conflict. The RBA becomes more likely to act when the original price shock spreads into transport, manufacturing, retail prices, wages and inflation expectations. Its statement suggests that this second-round process has begun.
The RBA also introduced AI-related inflation more prominently into its reasoning. Rapid investment in artificial intelligence is supporting growth among Australia’s major trading partners but is also pushing up demand and prices for technology-related goods. The AI investment boom is therefore playing a double role: cushioning global growth from the Middle East shock while intensifying pressure on prices and scarce resources.
Domestic capacity remains the other half of the inflation story. Australia’s weak productivity growth continues to restrict how quickly the economy can expand without creating price pressure. Business investment and borrowing remain strong, while output has been slightly more resilient than expected. The RBA’s argument is that imported inflation has arrived while the domestic economy still has insufficient spare capacity to absorb it.
Nevertheless, the statement acknowledged considerably more weakness than was evident earlier in the year. Consumer spending is easing, labour-market conditions have softened, house prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing lending has declined noticeably. The previous three increases appear to be slowing the economy.
That balance makes the decision unusually uncomfortable. The RBA is raising rates into a slowdown because it believes allowing inflation to persist would ultimately demand an even more severe response.
The statement’s final paragraphs also carry a stronger tightening bias than in August. Rather than merely saying rates could rise if required, the Board explicitly committed to doing what was necessary, “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”. The fact that all nine members supported the increase reinforces the message that the Board saw a clear need to act. RBA monetary policy statement, 29 September 2026
What Bullock said after the decision
At her press conference, Governor Michele Bullock presented the increase as an insurance policy against inflation becoming entrenched rather than the beginning of a predetermined series of rises.
Bullock said the Board considered leaving the cash rate unchanged but ultimately concluded that inflation developments justified another increase. She stopped short of offering forward guidance about the next meeting, saying the RBA would need to observe how all four of this year’s rate increases flowed through the economy.
That caution is important. Monetary policy operates with a lag, so households and businesses have not yet felt the full effect of the earlier increases. Bullock pointed to mortgage payments consuming a growing share of disposable income and the housing downturn as evidence that policy was already restrictive. Whether it is restrictive enough, however, will be determined by subsequent inflation data.
Her core message was that the RBA cannot afford to let Australians become accustomed to inflation of 3 or 4 per cent. If businesses, workers and consumers begin treating that rate as normal, inflation expectations could become embedded in pricing and wage decisions. Reversing that psychology would require a much sharper economic contraction.
Bullock said a recession was not the RBA’s central forecast, but she conceded there were scenarios in which a dramatic slowdown could become necessary if inflation expectations escaped the Bank’s control. “I hope it’s not needed,” she said when asked whether the economy might have to enter recession. ABC News coverage of Bullock’s press conference
She also rejected the idea that the Middle East conflict was solely responsible for the rate increase. The energy shock has intensified the problem, but Australia already faced domestic capacity constraints and inflationary pressure. Interest rates cannot lower global oil prices, but they can weaken demand and make it harder for businesses to pass every cost increase through to customers.
Bullock acknowledged that this mechanism places a disproportionate burden on mortgage holders. She noted that some Australians were taking second jobs to manage higher living costs and debt repayments. Her defence of the decision was that failing to act would eventually produce higher inflation, higher rates and a worse economic outcome.
The mood is now “higher for longer”
Current sentiment is therefore distinctly cautious and hawkish. The September increase was expected, but the unanimous vote and explicit reference to further rises reduce the likelihood of near-term relief for borrowers. Bond-market pricing and some private-sector forecasts point to additional tightening, although the RBA itself has not committed to another move.
The central question is whether four increases—totalling one percentage point this year—will slow domestic demand quickly enough to offset persistent energy, technology and capacity pressures. Falling house prices, weaker lending and softer consumption suggest the policy is working. Stronger inflation and continuing price pass-through suggest it has not yet done enough.
For borrowers, the immediate conclusion is bleak: rate cuts are no longer part of the near-term conversation. The debate is now between holding at 4.60 per cent and raising the cash rate again.
The RBA hopes it can contain inflation without causing a recession. Its latest statement and Bullock’s comments show that it sees a greater danger in doing too little now—and being forced to inflict substantially more damage later.
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A vibrant 1954 Palm Springs home featuring eight colorful murals by late artist Shawn Savage is on the market for $2.295 million. The 2,237-square-foot property features bold hot-pink doors, three bedrooms, a pool, mountain views and playful interiors blending modern glamour with classic Palm Springs style.
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A bold 1950s home in Palm Springs, California, adorned with eight colorful murals by the late artist Shawn Savage, is coming to market ahead of the city’s annual Modernism Week.
The white stucco home on El Camino Way, built in 1954 and recently renovated, has an asking price of $2.295 million. Its staggered facade features three playfully abstract murals on either side of double-height hot pink doors.
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The sellers are Los Angeles-based partners John Freeman and Mathieu Faure, who knew it was “the one” when they saw it after several months of searching in the winter of 2023. “It’s a happy house,” Freeman said. “We really liked the feel of the house: the uniqueness, the openness, the brightness—and the art.”
Located in the Mesa neighborhood of Palm Springs, which backs up to the San Jacinto Mountains, the 2,237-square-foot house features three bedrooms, an angled bonus room and a yard with a pool, desert mountain views and another colorful mural running alongside the pool.
“I never thought in my life I would have a house with pink doors,” said Faure, a producer at Apple TV who is originally from Paris. “It’s so colorful, it’s so different. And so Palm Springs.”
The layout of the home creates a smooth flow from the front doors through the open-plan common area—a foyer, bar, and living and dining room—into the kitchen around a fireplace wall and out to the yard. A corridor leads to a private bedroom wing, where the primary suite has floor-to-ceiling windows and the primary bath is only a tad smaller than the bedroom.
Faure has filled the home with Jonathan Adler furniture, rugs and accessories, riffing on the energetic California vibes of the house to create an aesthetic of “modern American glamour,” he said.
“It was enjoyable for me to play with different types of furniture and make this house ‘happy chic,’ as I describe it,” he said.
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“He did a fantastic job,” said Freeman, who is an attorney and consultant. “It does kind of bring a smile to my face whenever I walk into the house.”
Since the furniture and decor were chosen for the particularities of the space, the couple is open to selling them with the home. Their West Hollywood house is already furnished; the collection doesn’t match the vibes of a Houston loft they bought near family; and Faure can’t imagine these pieces in New York—where he’s lived in the past—he said.
The duo bought the Palm Springs house for $1.925 million in 2024, according to property records, and will list the home Monday. They are represented by Stewart Smith, Patrick Jordan and Kevin Stanley of Bennion Deville Homes/Luxury Portfolio International.
The previous owners had purchased the home in 2021 for $975,000 and then spent more than two years and $700,000 on the renovation, according to Realtor.com. They commissioned Savage, a local Palm Springs artist and painter known for his joyful abstract work, to decorate the home.
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Savage, who died in 2024, lived in the Coachella Valley from 2003, and his work can be found in various local institutions and is on exhibit at the Illumine Gallery in Palm Springs. “Some artists pass through a place. Shawn Savage became a part of it,” the gallery’s description states.
Unsurprisingly, the murals invite lots of friendly conversations, as well as guided tours and interested lookers, but never to a degree that it disturbed the peacefulness of their home or the neighborhood, the sellers said. “It felt like living in an art gallery, and you have the exterior that you would share with the world,” Faure explained.
The neighborhood also played a role in their decision to buy, because of its access to the hiking trails of the San Jacinto Mountains, the lack of through-roads and the neighborly environment.
“It’s a very friendly place,” Faure said.
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