The cost of friendship: why Australian social circles are shrinking

Australian social circles are shrinking as more people look for ways to keep a lid on spending, a new survey has found.

New research from Finder found more than one fifth of respondents had dropped a friend or reduced their social circle because they were unable to afford the same levels of social activity. The survey questioned 1,041 people about how increasing concerns about affordability were affecting their social lives. The results showed 6 percent had cut ties with a friend, 16 percent were going out with fewer people and 26 percent were going to fewer events.

Expensive events such as hens’ parties and weddings were among the activities people were looking to avoid, indicating younger people were those most feeling the brunt of cost of living pressures. According to Canstar, the average cost of a wedding in NSW was between $37,108 to $41,245 and marginally lower in Victoria at $36, 358 to $37,430.

But not all age groups are curbing their social circle. While the survey found that 10 percent of Gen Z respondents had cut off a friend, only 2 percent of Baby Boomers had done similar.

Money expert at Finder, Rebecca Pike, said many had no choice but to prioritise necessities like bills over discretionary activities.

“Unfortunately, for some, social activities have become a luxury they can no longer afford,” she said.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

The cost of friendship: why Australian social circles are shrinking

More than one fifth of Australians are cutting back on the number of people they socialise with

The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.