Germany Enters Recession in Blow to Europe’s Economy

Germany slipped into recession during the first three months of the year, as households cut spending in response to sharply higher prices for energy and food.

With Europe’s largest economy now having shrunk for two quarters in a row, meeting the technical definition of a recession, the eurozone as a whole may also have also contracted in the first quarter.

The development doesn’t fundamentally alter economists’ views about the country’s immediate prospects, and any decline in output in the broader region is likely to have been modest.

Still, a recession in the eurozone would deflate some of the optimism that has built up around the currency area’s economic prospects in recent months. It could also inspire greater caution among policy makers at the European Central Bank as they prepare to raise interest rates further.

“A technical recession would be a change in the overall narrative on how resilient the eurozone economy has been over recent quarters,” said Bert Colijn, an economist at ING.

Germany’s statistics agency said Thursday that gross domestic product—a broad measure of the goods and services produced by an economy—was 0.3% lower in the three months through March than in the final quarter of last year. It had previously estimated that the economy flatlined in the first quarter, having contracted by 0.5% in the final quarter of last year.

The agency said a 1.2% fall in household consumption was the main reason for the contraction, as households saw their spending power eroded by a surge in food prices. In March, German households were paying 21.2% more for their food purchases than a year earlier.

In the months immediately following the invasion of Ukraine, economists had warned that Germany faced a high risk of sliding into recession, given its reliance on Russian supplies of natural gas. But economic data releases at the turn of the year appeared to indicate that Germany would avoid that fate.

The revised figures for the first quarter confirmed that the world’s fourth-largest economy had succumbed to recession, but one less severe than feared when the Kremlin cut gas supplies in summer 2022.

Business surveys have pointed to a return to growth in Germany during the second quarter. But the impact of higher borrowing costs and a weak expansion in many of its main export markets point to the possibility of a renewed contraction in the three months through September.

“Higher interest rates will continue to weigh on both consumption and investment and exports may also suffer amid economic weakness in other developed markets,” said Franziska Palmas, an economist at Capital Economics who expects declines in GDP during both the third and fourth quarters.

Should the estimates for growth in other eurozone members be unchanged, the new measure of GDP for Germany suggests the currency area’s economy as a whole contracted slightly in the first quarter. The European Union’s statistics agency currently estimates it grew at an annualised rate of 0.3%, after shrinking by 0.2% in the final quarter of last year.

While that change in measured output would be small, it may have an influence on the ECB’s interest rate decisions over coming months. The ECB’s economists raised their growth forecasts for this and subsequent years in March, partly in response to a picture of the eurozone economy at the turn of the year that now appears overly optimistic.