America’s Hot Labour Market Fuels Job Growth in Unexpected Places

The U.S. labor market is showing surprising pockets of strength as companies directly in the crosshairs of rising interest rates hold on to or add workers.

Builders, architects and engineers, real-estate agents, vehicle manufacturers and other businesses typically sensitive to higher borrowing costs have increased employment during the opening months of 2023.

Those job gains, along with much larger increases in industries still trying to claw back workers lost during the pandemic, have added up to almost 1.6 million jobs in the first five months of 2023, outpacing economists’ forecasts.

The Labor Department will release June jobs figures on Friday.

“The labor market has continually surprised,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist for the research team at Glassdoor, an online employment site.

Robust hiring defies theFederal Reserve

The strong job gains come despite companies and consumers facing higher borrowing costs.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a 16-year high in 2023. And it is expected to increase them further later this year as part of a campaign to slow the economy, cool the labor market and tamp down inflation that is running too hot.

Some industries are defying the Fed’s efforts.

Construction employment has been one of the biggest surprises in recent months. In the past, builders have been hit especially hard when interest rates rose.

But employment in residential construction has merely levelled off in 2023, while industrial and infrastructure businesses gallop ahead.

Projects related to electric-vehicle batteries and semiconductors are driving much of the growth, spurred in part by the Chips and Science Act of 2022, which set aside $52.7 billion for financial assistance for the construction and expansion of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and other programs.

“Many of these were announced or broke ground before the Chips Act, but that added fuel to the bonfire,” said Kenneth Simonson, chief economist at Associated General Contractors of America.

Architectural and engineering firms have also added workers. The real-estate industry hasn’t shed any jobs this year despite a slowdown in single-family home sales.

American factories also often get caught in the Fed’s crosshairs when costs go up for auto loans and other personal loans. But auto and parts manufacturers have added almost 20,000 workers so far in 2023, helping to offset losses at makers of furniture, plastics and paper products.

According to Commerce Department data, car sales are still below pre pandemic levels, held back by limited supplies and high prices. But figures from the Fed show factories are trying to catch up. Auto and light-truck assemblies were above an annual pace of 11 million in April and May, the first time that number has been topped in back-to-back months since 2018.

Some employers stabilise, others heat up

The story is similar in other corners of the economy. Home-improvement and furniture stores have shed workers, for example, but department stores and warehouse clubs have added them. The final result: Overall retail employment has grown slightly so far this year.

The financial sector has also posted growth despite banking sector turmoil, with gains at insurers, brokers and financial advisers outpacing losses in banking.

Other sectors aren’t merely holding up—they are rapidly hiring. Government, leisure and hospitality and healthcare account for about 60% of all employment gains so far in 2023. The first two categories are still playing Covid-19 catch-up: Employment at restaurants, hotels, schools and in other municipal services are still below pre pandemic levels.

The picture isn’t entirely rosy.

Tech layoffs are well documented. Some economists worry that residential construction employment could be headed for a fall as a big run-up in apartment projects leads to an oversupply of units and signs of falling rents.

The number of hours people are spending on the job is declining, a possible sign that employers have less work for them. Wage growth remains strong but has eased, suggesting that demand for workers is cooling. And job growth has become more concentrated in fewer industries, possibly indicating that the breadth of the economic expansion is also narrowing.

“There are signals on the periphery that the labor market is slowing,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu delivered a warning to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a recent visit to Washington: Already-high airfares will surge if the war in Iran doesn’t end soon.

Sununu, a Republican who represents some of the biggest airlines as president of the industry group Airlines for America, has for weeks sounded the alarm to Trump administration officials about the economic fallout from high jet fuel prices. The war, Sununu has argued, must come to a close soon, or things will get worse.

Administration officials have gotten the message.

Privately, President Trump’s advisers are increasingly worried that Republicans will pay a political price for the rising fuel costs, according to people familiar with the matter. Many of those advisers are eager to end the war, hoping prices will begin to moderate before November’s midterm elections.

The fallout from the U.S.-Israeli attack in late February has slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, triggering a sharp increase in oil, gasoline and jet-fuel prices.

That means consumers are grappling with high costs ahead of the summer travel season, as they consider vacation plans.

Sixty-three per cent of Americans said they put a great deal or a good amount of blame on Trump for the increase in gas prices, according to a new poll conducted by NPR, PBS and Marist.

More than 8 in 10 Americans said struggles at the gas pump are putting strain on their finances.

Jet-fuel prices roughly doubled in a matter of weeks after the war began, and they have remained high. Airlines have said that will add billions of dollars of additional expenses this year, squeezing profit margins.

U.S. airlines spent more than $5 billion on fuel in March—up 30% from a year earlier, according to government data.

Carriers have been raising ticket prices, hoping to pass the cost along to consumers, and they are culling flights that will no longer make money at higher price levels.

In March, the price of a U.S. domestic round-trip economy ticket rose 21% from a year earlier to $570, according to Airlines Reporting Corp., which tracks travel-agency sales.

So far, airlines have said the higher fares haven’t deterred bookings and they are hoping to recoup more of the fuel-cost increases as the year goes on.

Earlier this week, Trump said the current price of oil is “a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that if Iran got a nuclear weapon, the country would have more leverage to keep the strait closed and “make our gas prices like $9 a gallon or $8 a gallon.”

Trump has taken steps in recent days to bring the war to an end. Late Tuesday, the president paused a plan to help guide trapped commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing optimism that a deal could be reached with Iran to end the conflict.

Crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, after reports that Iran and the U.S. are working with mediators on a one-page framework to restart negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and opening the strait.

Sununu said Trump administration officials are conscious of the economic fallout from the war: “They get it…and I think that’s why they’re trying to get through the war as fast as they can.”

But he cautioned that it could take months for prices to return to prewar levels.

“Ticket prices won’t go down immediately” after the strait is fully reopened, Sununu said. “You’re looking at elevated ticket prices through the summer and fall because it takes a while for the prices to go down.”

Since the initial U.S.-Israeli attack in late February, Sununu has met in Washington with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, representatives from the Transportation Department and senior White House officials.

A White House official confirmed that Hassett and Sununu have discussed the effect of increased fuel prices on the airline industry. The official said the conversation touched on how the industry can mitigate the impact of high jet fuel prices on consumers.

“The president and his entire energy team anticipated these short-term disruptions to the global energy markets from Operation Epic Fury and had a plan prepared to mitigate these disruptions,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said, pointing to the administration’s decision to waive a century-old shipping law in a bid to lower the cost of moving oil.

Rogers said the administration is working with industry representatives to “address their concerns, explore potential actions, and inform the president’s policy decisions.”

A Treasury Department spokesman pointed to Bessent’s recent comments on Fox News that the U.S. economy remains strong despite price increases. The spokesman said Treasury officials have met with airline executives, who have reaffirmed strong ticket bookings.

“We’re cognizant that this short-term move up in prices is affecting the American people, but I am also confident, on the other side of this, prices will come down very quickly,” Bessent told Fox News on Monday.

The war has already contributed to one casualty in the industry: Spirit Airlines. Company representatives have said they were forced to close the airline because the sustained surge in jet-fuel prices derailed the company’s plan to emerge from chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The Trump administration and Spirit failed to come to an agreement for the company to receive a financial lifeline of as much as $500 million from the federal government.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has argued that the Iran war wasn’t the cause of Spirit’s demise, pointing to the company’s past financial struggles, as well as the Biden administration’s decision to challenge a merger with JetBlue.

Other budget airlines have also turned to the federal government for help since the U.S.-Israeli attack. A group of budget airlines last month sought $2.5 billion in financial assistance to offset higher fuel costs, and they separately wrote to lawmakers asking for relief from certain ticket taxes.

America’s Hot Labour Market Fuels Job Growth in Unexpected Places

Payroll increase extends to building, home selling and auto making

Robust hiring defies theFederal Reserve

Some employers stabilise, others heat up

Administration officials have spoken to the airline industry, which has voiced concerns about the rising costs.