Central Banks Are Stuck in a Rinse-and-Repeat Cycle of Crises
Central banks’ efforts to keep markets stable may be creating unintended risks. Emergency lending and market backstops have encouraged highly leveraged government bond trades, potentially lowering borrowing costs while increasing financial vulnerabilities that could require further intervention during the next crisis.
4 min
Central banks may be accidentally subsidizing government borrowing through their efforts to prevent a repeat of past market blowups, and policymakers are starting to worry that anticrisis lending facilities could even be interfering with their own monetary policy.
The source of the problem is the switch from central banks being the lender of last resort to, in 2008 and 2020, also being market makers of last resort, ensuring corporate—and government—debt markets keep functioning. During a crisis, support is often essential to prevent a downward spiral that destroys the financial system.
But backstopping markets removes a key risk and encourages more borrowing—especially for the hedge funds that now own trillions of dollars of U.S. Treasurys.
“Ironically, vulnerability is created by mechanisms that were introduced to reduce vulnerability,” said Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, one of those growing concerned, in an interview. “So, it’s a bit like a whack-a-mole kind of story.”
Offering either an explicit or implied guarantee that government-funding markets will remain open and liquid means hedge funds have less risk of being unable to finance highly leveraged trades. This is particularly true for the overnight repurchase, or repo, market, where borrowers pledge bonds for cash. The result has been a huge expansion of two popular government bond trades, arbitraging Treasurys or British gilts against bond futures or swaps.
The scale is extraordinary: The Dallas Fed estimates hedge funds ended last year with $2.4 trillion of Treasurys, up from $600 billion a decade earlier. Because the profits on each trade are tiny, hedge funds have to leverage as much as 100 times to get worthwhile returns, creating new risks.
This might sound abstruse. But in 2020, it was the Treasury basis trade blowing up that forced the Fed to intervene. In 2025, signs of trouble in the swap trade pushed President Trump to retreat from his tariff plan.
Pill worries that the reassurance central-bank policy provides bleeds into monetary policy by boosting borrowing. This, in turn, keeps government-debt yields lower than they otherwise would be.
“There’s lots of gilts to be bought,” he says. “How do you support that buying of gilts? You make it attractive. How do you make it attractive? Well, there are some imperfections in the market. So those imperfections create profit opportunities, but they’re not very big. So how do you make them more meaningful? You allow leverage to build up.”
“That’s good for the government because it gets to sell the gilts at a lower [yield] than it otherwise would. It’s good for the financial sector because they’re able to extract these rents effectively. And it’s good for the central bank because the market seems to be liquid and functioning. But all of those things are true until they’re not true.”
When it goes wrong, the more leverage, the worse the problem. And the worse the problem, the more likely it becomes that central banks have to create yet more special tools to address it. That then spurs the next buildup of leverage.
Pill thinks more effort is needed to come up with a modern version of the Bagehot Doctrine. Walter Bagehot, the 19th-century editor of the Economist magazine, summed up the role of the central bank as being to lend to banks freely, against good collateral, at a penalty rate. Access to instant cash helps banks withstand runs. The fact the central bank is offering a backstop should make the run less likely, and shareholders are penalized, through the penalty rate, if it is used.
Tools for saving markets from drying up are more haphazard. In 2020 the Fed, BOE and others just bought lots of government debt to inject liquidity into markets. That worked because, even though quantitative easing is also a monetary policy tool, they also wanted easier money.
Unfortunately, that created what Pill described as a tinderbox, ignited by the energy crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine. The excess money creation from left over from emergency QE then fanned the flames of inflation. This made it much harder to calibrate monetary policy when central banks decided to tighten (although policymakers were also, in my view, far too slow to recognize inflation).
Pill points to the “temporary, targeted” BOE buying of gilts amid the forced selling by leveraged pension funds after Britain’s botched tax-cut plan in September 2022 as a successful model. At a time when the BOE was trying to tighten monetary policy, it intervened in a way that stopped the pension fund selling spiral and stabilized gilts. Yet the central bank maintained tight monetary policy.
Bagehot would recognize the goal: Reduce the encouragement to take risk, known as moral hazard, that offering guarantees in advance creates, but retain the ability to mount a rescue in a crisis.
Unfortunately, much of central banking is going backward on this. Moral hazard is increasing, even for banks. In the 2023 bank bailout, the Fed accepted less-than-full collateral, recognizing Treasury bonds at face value rather than their (much lower) market value.
The emergency rescue facility then became a funding facility that even healthy banks chose to tap—in effect easing monetary policy by the back door and prompting the Fed to tighten the terms before it ended. Something similar could be under way with Japan’s plans to use an emergency Fed loan facility to raise cash to prop up the yen without having to sell its hoard of Treasurys.
I don’t know how to break the cycle of crises needing rescues that lead to more leverage and new crises. And I’m concerned we’re firmly into the added-leverage phase of the latest cycle.
At least central bankers are still thinking about it, even if they don’t, so far, have good answers.
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The ASX 200 rose 1.28 per cent in the week ending 30 October as miners rallied, consumer stocks fell and rate-rise expectations climbed
6 min
The Australian sharemarket rose during four of five sessions in the week ending 30 October, but the headline gain concealed a sharp divide between recovering miners, rate-sensitive property stocks and retailers hit by inflation and weaker trading updates.
The Australian sharemarket finished October with a positive week, although the route higher was anything but uniform.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday 30 October at 8,908.1, gaining 112.9 points, or 1.28 per cent, from the previous Friday’s close of 8,795.2.
The All Ordinaries advanced 1.34 per cent to 9,025, while the more concentrated S&P/ASX 20 gained 1.11 per cent.
The benchmark rose during four of the week’s five sessions. It added 0.17 per cent on Monday and 0.46 per cent on Tuesday, before slipping 0.03 per cent on Wednesday. It recovered 0.50 per cent on Thursday and gained another 0.18 per cent on Friday.
The index briefly reached 8,933.3 but again failed to establish itself above the psychologically important 9,000-point mark.
The week’s central tension was between a resources recovery and a less forgiving domestic interest-rate outlook.
Materials gained 4.06 per cent, reclaiming part of the previous week’s heavy fall. Australian real estate investment trusts rose 3.77 per cent, financials gained 1.05 per cent and energy advanced 1.39 per cent.
At the other end of the market, consumer staples fell 5.13 per cent and consumer discretionary shares lost 2.35 per cent. Utilities declined 0.73 per cent and communication services eased 0.68 per cent.
Inflation changes the conversation
Australia’s September inflation data was the week’s pivotal domestic release.
Annual inflation of 4.3 per cent pushed market pricing towards another possible Reserve Bank increase and disrupted Wednesday’s early sharemarket rally.
By Thursday’s close, one widely followed market measure placed the probability of an increase in the cash rate to 4.85 per cent at approximately 80 per cent.
That pricing does not make an increase certain. It does, however, change the framework through which investors assess Australian businesses.
Companies dependent on discretionary household spending face renewed pressure on sales and margins. Property trusts, banks, developers and highly leveraged companies must be considered against the prospect of higher funding costs.
Banks present a more complicated equation. Higher rates can support margins, but they may also slow credit growth and increase arrears.
Miners recover
BHP gained 4.56 per cent across the week to close at $57.56, making a substantial contribution to the benchmark’s rise.
The recovery followed an 8.3 per cent fall during the previous week and helped lift the broader materials sector.
Northern Star Resources added 4.59 per cent, while Goodman Group advanced 6.85 per cent to become the strongest performer in the ASX 20.
The commodities picture was mixed. Gold fell approximately 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure, while Brent crude added around 0.68 per cent.
The Australian dollar was little changed at approximately US70.35 cents at the reference point.
Supermarkets and consumer shares retreat
The consumer-staples story was markedly weaker.
Coles fell 11.77 per cent after its first-quarter update, making it one of the largest significant-company declines of the week.
Woolworths lost 3.66 per cent and Wesfarmers fell 4.48 per cent to $76.69 as investors processed company trading commentary against the prospect of another squeeze on household demand.
The moves illustrate how quickly expectations can change when an apparently defensive company disappoints.
Supermarkets still benefit from the recurring need for groceries, but customers can trade down, shift between chains and reduce spending on higher-margin discretionary lines.
Wesfarmers carries exposure to several consumer categories through businesses including Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks. A renewed rate increase would place more pressure on households already confronting higher prices.
The wider market’s biggest movements
Among companies outside the ASX 20, Mesoblast surged 27.32 per cent, SiteMinder gained 22.74 per cent and Zip rose 22.60 per cent.
The sharpest weekly falls included 4DMedical, down 33.51 per cent; Tuas, down 29.95 per cent; Catalyst Metals, down 17.47 per cent; and Champion Iron, down 13.35 per cent.
Those percentages require context.
The movements in BHP, Commonwealth Bank and other very large companies had substantially more influence on the index than similarly dramatic changes among smaller companies.
A 20 per cent move in a relatively small stock may attract more attention than a two per cent rise in a major bank, but the bank can have the greater effect on the market.
How the ASX 20 moved
The following list uses the S&P/ASX 20 constituents and five-session movements reported at the 30 October close.
Where the component feed did not publish a valid five-day comparison, no figure has been estimated.
BHP Group: Up 4.56 per cent
Commonwealth Bank: Up 1.66 per cent
Rio Tinto: Down 2.20 per cent
National Australia Bank: Up 0.48 per cent
Westpac: Up 0.08 per cent
ANZ Group: Up 1.92 per cent
CSL: Up 2.05 per cent
Macquarie Group: Up 2.19 per cent
Wesfarmers: Down 4.48 per cent
Woodside Energy: Up 1.43 per cent
Goodman Group: Up 6.85 per cent
Telstra: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed
Woolworths: Down 3.66 per cent
Fortescue: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed
Transurban: Down 2.40 per cent
QBE Insurance: Down 1.21 per cent
Aristocrat Leisure: Up 0.63 per cent
Northern Star Resources: Up 4.59 per cent
Sigma Healthcare: Down 0.36 per cent
Brambles: Down 1.20 per cent
The companies dominating the conversation
Coles was the week’s standout media-facing company for the wrong reason.
Its trading update produced an outsized repricing and drew attention across the grocery and retail sectors. Woolworths and Wesfarmers were also scrutinised as investors considered how stubborn inflation and another possible rate rise could affect sales volumes.
Bank of Queensland offered a more positive corporate signal.
The bank reported that its FY26 net interest margin had risen six basis points to 1.70 per cent, ahead of the 1.68 per cent expected by the market according to contemporaneous reporting.
Bank of Queensland shares rose 5.8 per cent on Thursday, while the major banks also rallied.
Endeavour Group finished Friday at $3.39, up 4.31 per cent on the day, and released the results of its annual general meeting.
The movement was notable during a week in which investors were highly sensitive to consumer-facing companies. The AGM result should not, however, be presented as the sole cause of the share-price increase without further supporting company guidance.
Mesoblast’s 23.4 per cent Thursday rise and 27.32 per cent weekly gain returned the biotechnology company to the centre of market attention.
For editors, it is important to separate the size of that percentage movement from its influence on the index. Mesoblast was an eye-catching performer, but it did not drive the ASX 200 in the way BHP or Commonwealth Bank did.
Qantas remained part of the broader market conversation as investors watched travel demand and company updates.
However, the primary-source review did not locate a fresh Qantas announcement that justified attributing a major weekly market movement to new company information. The airline should therefore remain on the monitoring list rather than being forced into the week’s causal narrative.
Is Australia’s IPO market reopening?
The official ASX new-listings pipeline remains active but selective.
ASX’s upcoming-floats page included formal applications with offer timetables extending through October and at least one anticipated listing on 30 November.
The exchange notes that its page covers companies for which a formal listing application has been received. It does not represent every company privately exploring a float.
The wider debate concerns whether Australia’s public market is sufficiently competitive when high-growth businesses can pursue capital in the United States or remain privately funded for longer.
ASX has previously raised possible reforms designed to improve the attractiveness of the local market. These include debate about reducing minimum free-float requirements and streamlining aspects of the admissions process.
An enhanced fast-track pathway for qualifying applicants can shorten the review process, reducing the execution risk created when market conditions change during a long IPO timetable.
That does not remove the more fundamental challenge.
New floats still require credible earnings or a convincing growth pathway, sensible pricing and enough genuine free float to support trading after listing.
Investors can already obtain diversified exposure through low-cost exchange-traded funds or buy established, liquid businesses. A float must therefore offer more than novelty.
The current pipeline suggests that the IPO window is open, but it is not indiscriminate.
What investors will watch next
The Reserve Bank’s next decision now sits at the centre of the domestic outlook.
Any change in cash-rate expectations will flow rapidly through banks, retailers, property trusts, listed developers and companies carrying substantial debt.
Investors will also watch whether the materials recovery can continue, whether BHP can hold its rebound and whether consumer companies provide further evidence of slowing demand.
Overseas, technology-sector volatility, commodity prices and the United States interest-rate outlook will continue to shape Australian trading.
The week’s 1.28 per cent headline gain was encouraging, but it was not a broad declaration of confidence.
It was a rotation towards miners, selected financials and property securities—and away from consumer businesses facing a more difficult inflation and interest-rate equation.
Market dashboard
S&P/ASX 200: 8,908.1, up 1.28 per cent for the week
All Ordinaries: 9,025, up 1.34 per cent
S&P/ASX 20: 5,214.7, up 1.11 per cent over five sessions
Best sector: Materials, up 4.06 per cent
Next-best sector: A-REITs, up 3.77 per cent
Weakest sector: Consumer staples, down 5.13 per cent
Major large-cap winner: Goodman Group, up 6.85 per cent
Major large-cap loser: Coles, down 11.77 per cent
AUD/USD: Approximately US70.35 cents at the weekly reference point
Gold: Approximately US$3,885 an ounce, down 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure
Brent crude: Approximately US$117.70 a barrel, up 0.68 per cent on the cited weekly measure
Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.
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