From Star Trek Memorabilia to Diana’s Dresses. He’s Gavelling in the Next Generation of Auction Buyers.

A fury of fast and frequent bidding appeared to take auctioneer Kody Frederick by surprise at June sale of Princess Diana’s dresses and other memorabilia from the royal family

At one point, the bidding for a Catherine Walker evening gown worn by the late Princess of Wales blew past an original estimate of US$100,000 to US$200,000, topping out at US$450,000 with Frederick ultimately calling it “a moment of moments.”

“You have to give people a minute to breathe when you’re talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars per bid,” he says about the auction.

That event continued to rack up records, including the US$910,000 sale of another dress, and it demonstrated not only a rise in the relevance of cultural memorabilia as a category, but Frederick’s quick ascent among auctioneers.

Although on the younger side of the current auctioneer crop, at age 40, and with just two years of experience with gavel in hand, Frederick is finding himself running sales in new categories and welcoming in a new set of auction buyers.

“So much of this stuff has never come to auction, so it really is a first time [opportunity],” he says.

Frederick, who is based in Los Angeles, is not a career showperson. Prior to attending auctioneering school in Indiana, he was working in production for Disney+, and didn’t even have auctioneering on his radar until a colleague suggested he check out the profession while looking for work. He joined Julien’s in April 2020.

“My start date was supposed to be the day California went into lockdown, but it was delayed a month because of that,” he says.

Frederick ran his first auction in September 2021, selling low-value music memorabilia in a largely empty room where the top-selling item (a commemorative guitar) went for US$2,880.

“Ninety percent of our bidding takes place online, so being able to communicate to online bidders in the moment is always the challenge,” he says. “Creating the sense of excitement is challenging, and the personality is more important than the medium.”

He would continue to work his way up through various Julien’s sales until he found himself selling a signed Banksy painting in March 2023. The item was the marquee lot of a larger contemporary art sale, and had an original estimate of US$600,000 to US$800,000. The hammer price topped out at just over US$2 million.

“We had bidders in the room and put an event around it,” he says.

Frederick says it’s important to see in the room who’s bidding and in which order the bids are coming in, especially in high-value, high-volume sales.

Frederick leads a sale of music memorabilia at the Hard Rock Cafe in New York.
Courtesy of Julien’s Auctions

“I have to keep things as close to real time as possible, and make sure there’s no disconnect between bidding and the auctioneer,” he says.

Much of what Julien’s sells falls into new or emerging auction categories—music memorabilia, pop culture artefacts, or modern art pieces that newer buyers connect to in ways that traditional areas (like classic art or wine) don’t.

Frederick will run an auction this fall featuring original Star Trek items and a separate event selling a significant guitar played in 1993 by the late Eddie Van Halen. Both sales could potentially resonate with those who haven’t spent much time in the auction world.

“It’s easier to convey value when an item has strong cultural significance,” he says. “A lot of what we sell has stories.”

Chip makers are fighting to assure investors that the artificial-intelligence boom is racing forward. Wall Street might not believe it until Nvidia’s NVDA -0.98%decrease; down pointing triangle Jensen Huang says so.

When Huang steps up to the mic for his company’s earnings call Wednesday, he will have the world’s attention. What he says about Nvidia’s present will preview the future of AI, dictate the path forward for a tech-crazed stock market and influence an American economy increasingly tethered to hopes that the boom won’t go bust.

The $5 trillion chip maker has provided the key building blocks for AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 set off a race for dominance among OpenAI, Anthropic and established Silicon Valley giants. Now, as Nvidia backstops sprawling data-center projects and an exotic money pipeline to boost chip demand, the company’s influence is arguably bigger than ever.

But there are signs of trouble ahead. Political pushback to AI is growing. A bond selloff propelled borrowing costs to their highest levels in years. The hyperscalers that include some of Nvidia’s key customers—once cash-printing machines—are relying more on debt. OpenAI recently told investors its revenue rose by a tepid 18% in the second quarter while its losses deepened.

Nvidia is increasingly stepping in to shore up potential weak points across the market. Earlier this month, the company teamed up with six of Wall Street’s biggest firms on a $500 billion AI-financing plan, pledging to backstop lending to customers that can’t afford its chips otherwise. The chip maker last week also took a stake in Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which arranges power for data centers, and struck a $6 billion deal with startup Poolside aimed at developing a powerful open-weight AI model.

After watching shares in other chip makers and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies swing wildly in recent months, Wall Street is hoping Nvidia can beat expectations—again. The countdown is on.

“It’s kind of becoming more and more like the World Cup final than the Super Bowl at this point,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just gotten to be that big.”

The company has smashed analysts’ earnings estimates for each of the 14 quarters since the AI boom kicked into high gear. Nvidia posted 210% annual growth in net income in its last three-month period, according to FactSet, making Wall Street’s 126% projection look pedestrian.

Expectations for a blowout second quarter have risen rapidly over the course of this year. All Nvidia will have to do to beat this target: outrun 95% annual earnings growth to more than $51.5 billion. Analysts project the chip maker will report record sales of $92 billion for the period, up from a forecast of $78 billion at the start of this year.

In July, big-tech earnings sparked volatility. Concerns about runaway capital spending spread across the sector after Alphabet’s and Tesla’s results, driving a $890 billion wipeout that contributed to the unwind of hedge fund Situational Awareness. Microsoft posted the largest one-day gain in market capitalization by any company, ever, after a quarter proving that it could still show investors the money. SpaceX rocketed higher after a record-breaking initial public offering, only to see $1 trillion in value evaporate.

Surging memory prices and borrowing costs have fueled fears that those and other companies will be unable to keep plowing more money into supplies including Nvidia chips. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, founder of OnyxPoint Global Management, has recently bought dips in AI-infrastructure stocks when Wall Street has strained to absorb massive debt issued by Silicon Valley.

“The macro data is really quite robust,” he said. “Of course, there’s a level at which everything breaks.”

Investors have kept pumping money into the AI trade despite concerns around chip consumers—and to the benefit of chip producers. That is why Nvidia’s outlook for semiconductor demand could send ripples through counterparts such as Micron Technology and Sandisk, developers of the data centers in which their chips reside, and a supply chain of power producers, contractors and other specialists that underpin the globe-spanning AI build-out.

“We joke internally that we’re all Nvidia analysts now,” said David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The irony is that investors have tended to sell Nvidia stock immediately after blockbuster earnings, with shares falling each trading session after its four past quarterly reports. Some are betting that will be the case this time around, too.

The options market is pricing in a 5.3% swing, higher or lower, in Nvidia shares during the session following earnings, according to Option Research & Technology Services. That is higher than the 4.8% average move in Nvidia’s stock over the last 12 months after the company reports quarterly results.

In recent days, some of the most actively traded Nvidia options have been put contracts tied to the stock falling from its Friday value of $214.75 to $205 and $210 apiece, according to Cboe Global Markets data. Put options give the right to sell a stock by a set price and typically represent a bearish wager.

Many analysts remain optimistic. Frank Lee, global head of tech hardware and semiconductor research at HSBC Global Investment Research, recently raised his price target for Nvidia shares to $360 from $325, citing, among other things, Nvidia’s strategic partnerships with suppliers and its role as a top contributor to open-source AI.

From Star Trek Memorabilia to Diana’s Dresses. He’s Gavelling in the Next Generation of Auction Buyers.

Nvidia’s earnings will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom.