Populist Right-Wing Parties Lead Polls in Europe’s Biggest Economies

LONDON: For the first time, populist or far-right parties are leading the polls in the U.K., France and Germany, the latest sign of growing voter discontent in much of the continent following years of high immigration and inflation.

Far-right and anti-immigration parties have already entered government in countries such as Italy, Finland and the Netherlands.

But this year marks the first time that they have been ahead in Europe’s biggest economies at the same time. That could provoke a period of political turbulence in all three countries, even if national elections are likely still a few years away.

“It’s significant. Leaders in all three countries are grappling with an ascendant far right that looks on the cusp of power unless politicians can address what’s fuelling the rise, which is immigration and cost of living,” said Mujtaba Rahman , head of Europe for risk consulting firm Eurasia.

France’s anti-immigration National Rally has had a consistent lead in polls this year. An Elabe poll last month showed Jordan Bardella, the young protégé of the far-right leader Marine Le Pen , was the most popular with an approval rating of 36%.

Polling for the next presidential vote also suggests National Rally’s candidate—whether it is Bardella or Le Pen—would lead the first round.

In the U.K., the anti-immigration Reform UK, led by the former Brexiteer Nigel Farage , has surged in the past six months and is now comfortably ahead in opinion polls of the ruling Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives, the political duopoly that has dominated British politics for the past century.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has been neck-and-neck with the ruling centre-right Christian Democratic Union in polls since the start of the year. The AfD has pulled slightly ahead in recent weeks, the first time it has done so since April, according to Forsa, one of the country’s leading pollsters.

Like the U.S., much of Europe has experienced two things at the same time since the pandemic: record levels of immigration that have caused a voter backlash, and a surge in inflation that has now eased but left prices for many goods much higher than before—leaving many voters feeling worse off. Social media has also polarised opinions.

Unlike the U.S., however, much of Europe has almost no economic growth, fuelling a widespread sense that the continent faces years of drift , as well as political gridlock.

The sense of economic decline together with rapid immigration is a toxic combination that has turned many voters against established political parties, said Jérémie Gallon, a former French diplomat and head of Europe for consulting firm McLarty Associates.

“It’s the same story from smaller English cities to the French countryside to German towns, where many people feel like the traditional elites look down on them or ignore their concerns,” he said.

Bardella and National Rally have tapped into widespread anxiety that France’s Muslim minority, one of the largest in Europe, is encroaching on the secular values of the French Republic, and into a perceived decline of living standards among working-class and middle-class families.

In recent years, National Rally has evolved from a fringe protest movement to the country’s largest single party in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament.

That hasn’t proved enough yet for the far-right party to take the reins of government, but it has made the country increasingly difficult to govern. France’s government is again on the brink of collapse , less than nine months after conservative French Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted from office.

This past week, National Rally pledged to vote against the government again on Sept. 8, when centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou plans to hold a confidence vote in the National Assembly ahead of what are expected to be difficult negotiations for a new budget. On Tuesday, Bardella called on President Emmanuel Macron to hold new parliamentary elections or resign.

In recent years, Germany and the U.K. both saw the biggest surges in immigration in their history, even if the numbers have begun to fall this year. In Germany, the share of residents born outside the country surged from just over 15% in 2017 to a record high of 22% in 2024, according to government data. That compares with about 16% in the U.S.

The U.K., meanwhile, has grappled with a record rise in legal and illegal immigration. Some 4.5 million people arrived legally between 2021 and 2024, primarily from India, Nigeria and China. That is slightly more than those who legally entered the U.S.—which has about five times the population of the U.K.—over that time. In addition, tens of thousands of people have illegally crossed the English Channel on flimsy boats each year to claim asylum.

So far this year, record numbers of people—29,000 through the end of August—have made the crossing, sparking growing pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer , who came to power last year vowing to “smash the gangs” that control migrant smuggling and reduce the crossings.

Adding to the pressure on Starmer, protests flared this summer in some English towns over the use of local hotels where the government is paying for migrants to stay until their asylum cases are resolved.

In Germany, a surprising feature of the AfD’s latest surge is that it has coincided with a drop in immigration numbers under the current government. In the midst of tougher border controls, new asylum requests fell more than a third in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.

Friedrich Merz , the conservative chancellor, has also done away with some of his predecessor’s green policies, often criticised as excessive by the AfD.

A raft of growth-supporting measures, from corporate tax cuts to rising infrastructure investments, have yet to show any effect, however. The economy contracted by 0.3% in the most recent quarter, extending a two-year recession.

This, said Manfred Güllner, head of Forsa, was one of the factors for the AfD’s recent surge. “Voters are seeing a lot of action, but they’re not feeling any effect,” he said, pointing to the mismatch—or at least the time lag—between promises and results.

The AfD has campaigned for the deportations of immigrants in the country illegally; for Germany to leave the European Union and the euro currency; and for the country to rethink its culture of Holocaust remembrance.

It rejects the notion of man-made climate change. Its economic polices are similar to those of Merz’s Christian Democratic Union, but it also wants to increase pension benefits and limit noncitizens’ access to welfare benefits.

Some of its leaders and lawmakers have drawn scrutiny for their sympathies toward Russia and China —the party has called for Germany to resume energy deals with Moscow—while economists have said its push to leave the EU could damage the country’s export industries.

But the party has also enjoyed the support of people close to President Trump, in particular Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk .

The AfD has tapped into economic frustration to buttress its appeal. Its program in the lead-up to February’s federal election focused on economic proposals, ahead of topics such as security and immigration.

This has helped it gather support among blue-collar voters in economically depressed regions far away from the party’s historical strongholds in former East Germany, such as the Ruhr, the industrial Rust Belt region east of the Rhine Valley.

The Australian sharemarket rose during four of five sessions in the week ending 30 October, but the headline gain concealed a sharp divide between recovering miners, rate-sensitive property stocks and retailers hit by inflation and weaker trading updates.

The Australian sharemarket finished October with a positive week, although the route higher was anything but uniform.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday 30 October at 8,908.1, gaining 112.9 points, or 1.28 per cent, from the previous Friday’s close of 8,795.2.

The All Ordinaries advanced 1.34 per cent to 9,025, while the more concentrated S&P/ASX 20 gained 1.11 per cent.

The benchmark rose during four of the week’s five sessions. It added 0.17 per cent on Monday and 0.46 per cent on Tuesday, before slipping 0.03 per cent on Wednesday. It recovered 0.50 per cent on Thursday and gained another 0.18 per cent on Friday.

The index briefly reached 8,933.3 but again failed to establish itself above the psychologically important 9,000-point mark.

The week’s central tension was between a resources recovery and a less forgiving domestic interest-rate outlook.

Materials gained 4.06 per cent, reclaiming part of the previous week’s heavy fall. Australian real estate investment trusts rose 3.77 per cent, financials gained 1.05 per cent and energy advanced 1.39 per cent.

At the other end of the market, consumer staples fell 5.13 per cent and consumer discretionary shares lost 2.35 per cent. Utilities declined 0.73 per cent and communication services eased 0.68 per cent.

Inflation changes the conversation

Australia’s September inflation data was the week’s pivotal domestic release.

Annual inflation of 4.3 per cent pushed market pricing towards another possible Reserve Bank increase and disrupted Wednesday’s early sharemarket rally.

By Thursday’s close, one widely followed market measure placed the probability of an increase in the cash rate to 4.85 per cent at approximately 80 per cent.

That pricing does not make an increase certain. It does, however, change the framework through which investors assess Australian businesses.

Companies dependent on discretionary household spending face renewed pressure on sales and margins. Property trusts, banks, developers and highly leveraged companies must be considered against the prospect of higher funding costs.

Banks present a more complicated equation. Higher rates can support margins, but they may also slow credit growth and increase arrears.

Miners recover

BHP gained 4.56 per cent across the week to close at $57.56, making a substantial contribution to the benchmark’s rise.

The recovery followed an 8.3 per cent fall during the previous week and helped lift the broader materials sector.

Northern Star Resources added 4.59 per cent, while Goodman Group advanced 6.85 per cent to become the strongest performer in the ASX 20.

The commodities picture was mixed. Gold fell approximately 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure, while Brent crude added around 0.68 per cent.

The Australian dollar was little changed at approximately US70.35 cents at the reference point.

Supermarkets and consumer shares retreat

The consumer-staples story was markedly weaker.

Coles fell 11.77 per cent after its first-quarter update, making it one of the largest significant-company declines of the week.

Woolworths lost 3.66 per cent and Wesfarmers fell 4.48 per cent to $76.69 as investors processed company trading commentary against the prospect of another squeeze on household demand.

The moves illustrate how quickly expectations can change when an apparently defensive company disappoints.

Supermarkets still benefit from the recurring need for groceries, but customers can trade down, shift between chains and reduce spending on higher-margin discretionary lines.

Wesfarmers carries exposure to several consumer categories through businesses including Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks. A renewed rate increase would place more pressure on households already confronting higher prices.

The wider market’s biggest movements

Among companies outside the ASX 20, Mesoblast surged 27.32 per cent, SiteMinder gained 22.74 per cent and Zip rose 22.60 per cent.

The sharpest weekly falls included 4DMedical, down 33.51 per cent; Tuas, down 29.95 per cent; Catalyst Metals, down 17.47 per cent; and Champion Iron, down 13.35 per cent.

Those percentages require context.

The movements in BHP, Commonwealth Bank and other very large companies had substantially more influence on the index than similarly dramatic changes among smaller companies.

A 20 per cent move in a relatively small stock may attract more attention than a two per cent rise in a major bank, but the bank can have the greater effect on the market.

How the ASX 20 moved

The following list uses the S&P/ASX 20 constituents and five-session movements reported at the 30 October close.

Where the component feed did not publish a valid five-day comparison, no figure has been estimated.

BHP Group: Up 4.56 per cent

Commonwealth Bank: Up 1.66 per cent

Rio Tinto: Down 2.20 per cent

National Australia Bank: Up 0.48 per cent

Westpac: Up 0.08 per cent

ANZ Group: Up 1.92 per cent

CSL: Up 2.05 per cent

Macquarie Group: Up 2.19 per cent

Wesfarmers: Down 4.48 per cent

Woodside Energy: Up 1.43 per cent

Goodman Group: Up 6.85 per cent

Telstra: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed

Woolworths: Down 3.66 per cent

Fortescue: Five-day comparison unavailable from the cited component feed

Transurban: Down 2.40 per cent

QBE Insurance: Down 1.21 per cent

Aristocrat Leisure: Up 0.63 per cent

Northern Star Resources: Up 4.59 per cent

Sigma Healthcare: Down 0.36 per cent

Brambles: Down 1.20 per cent

The companies dominating the conversation

Coles was the week’s standout media-facing company for the wrong reason.

Its trading update produced an outsized repricing and drew attention across the grocery and retail sectors. Woolworths and Wesfarmers were also scrutinised as investors considered how stubborn inflation and another possible rate rise could affect sales volumes.

Bank of Queensland offered a more positive corporate signal.

The bank reported that its FY26 net interest margin had risen six basis points to 1.70 per cent, ahead of the 1.68 per cent expected by the market according to contemporaneous reporting.

Bank of Queensland shares rose 5.8 per cent on Thursday, while the major banks also rallied.

Endeavour Group finished Friday at $3.39, up 4.31 per cent on the day, and released the results of its annual general meeting.

The movement was notable during a week in which investors were highly sensitive to consumer-facing companies. The AGM result should not, however, be presented as the sole cause of the share-price increase without further supporting company guidance.

Mesoblast’s 23.4 per cent Thursday rise and 27.32 per cent weekly gain returned the biotechnology company to the centre of market attention.

For editors, it is important to separate the size of that percentage movement from its influence on the index. Mesoblast was an eye-catching performer, but it did not drive the ASX 200 in the way BHP or Commonwealth Bank did.

Qantas remained part of the broader market conversation as investors watched travel demand and company updates.

However, the primary-source review did not locate a fresh Qantas announcement that justified attributing a major weekly market movement to new company information. The airline should therefore remain on the monitoring list rather than being forced into the week’s causal narrative.

Is Australia’s IPO market reopening?

The official ASX new-listings pipeline remains active but selective.

ASX’s upcoming-floats page included formal applications with offer timetables extending through October and at least one anticipated listing on 30 November.

The exchange notes that its page covers companies for which a formal listing application has been received. It does not represent every company privately exploring a float.

The wider debate concerns whether Australia’s public market is sufficiently competitive when high-growth businesses can pursue capital in the United States or remain privately funded for longer.

ASX has previously raised possible reforms designed to improve the attractiveness of the local market. These include debate about reducing minimum free-float requirements and streamlining aspects of the admissions process.

An enhanced fast-track pathway for qualifying applicants can shorten the review process, reducing the execution risk created when market conditions change during a long IPO timetable.

That does not remove the more fundamental challenge.

New floats still require credible earnings or a convincing growth pathway, sensible pricing and enough genuine free float to support trading after listing.

Investors can already obtain diversified exposure through low-cost exchange-traded funds or buy established, liquid businesses. A float must therefore offer more than novelty.

The current pipeline suggests that the IPO window is open, but it is not indiscriminate.

What investors will watch next

The Reserve Bank’s next decision now sits at the centre of the domestic outlook.

Any change in cash-rate expectations will flow rapidly through banks, retailers, property trusts, listed developers and companies carrying substantial debt.

Investors will also watch whether the materials recovery can continue, whether BHP can hold its rebound and whether consumer companies provide further evidence of slowing demand.

Overseas, technology-sector volatility, commodity prices and the United States interest-rate outlook will continue to shape Australian trading.

The week’s 1.28 per cent headline gain was encouraging, but it was not a broad declaration of confidence.

It was a rotation towards miners, selected financials and property securities—and away from consumer businesses facing a more difficult inflation and interest-rate equation.

Market dashboard

S&P/ASX 200: 8,908.1, up 1.28 per cent for the week

All Ordinaries: 9,025, up 1.34 per cent

S&P/ASX 20: 5,214.7, up 1.11 per cent over five sessions

Best sector: Materials, up 4.06 per cent

Next-best sector: A-REITs, up 3.77 per cent

Weakest sector: Consumer staples, down 5.13 per cent

Major large-cap winner: Goodman Group, up 6.85 per cent

Major large-cap loser: Coles, down 11.77 per cent

AUD/USD: Approximately US70.35 cents at the weekly reference point

Gold: Approximately US$3,885 an ounce, down 3.12 per cent on the cited weekly measure

Brent crude: Approximately US$117.70 a barrel, up 0.68 per cent on the cited weekly measure