WHY THE HOUSING CRISIS IS ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE

The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.

Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.

Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.

But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.

Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.

Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.

Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.

The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.

The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.

The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.

Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.

That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.

Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.

We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.

At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.

This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.

Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.

The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.

Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.

And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.

The Sydney developer-builder, which typically retains its projects, is offering 54 residences off the plan on Spencer Street, with prices starting at $3.9 million.

HSN Property Group has launched Maison Jolene in Rose Bay, giving buyers a rare opportunity to purchase off the plan from a developer-builder that has spent more than two decades building a predominantly build-to-hold portfolio in Sydney’s eastern suburbs. HSN values that portfolio at $4 billion.

Located at 2–16 Spencer Street, Maison Jolene comprises 54 residences, including house-sized two- and three-bedroom apartments, sub-penthouses and penthouses. Prices start at $3.9 million, according to HSN, with many residences designed to capture views across Rose Bay, Sydney Harbour and the city skyline.

James Nixon, head of projects at The Rubinstein Group, is handling the sales campaign alongside agency founder Gavin Rubinstein. He says the launch is an unusual opportunity for buyers who have followed the developer’s work.

“HSN is renowned for building entire projects and rarely selling a single apartment to the open market, so Maison Jolene really is a first for potential buyers who have been following the brand across previous projects,” Nixon says.

HSN worked with architecture practice MHN Design Union and interiors studio The Unlisted Collective on the development. A rhythm of arches and deep-set openings gives the building its presence on Spencer Street, while the residences are positioned to make the most of natural light, privacy and outlook. Landscaping frames the arrival and carries through to the shared outdoor spaces.

“Maison Jolene was conceived to bring a touch of European elegance to Rose Bay, drawing on the understated charm of Mayfair and the romance of Paris while remaining grounded in the relaxed character of Sydney’s eastern suburbs,” says Rafi Assouline, founder and director of HSN Property Group.

The apartments were designed with established Rose Bay downsizers in mind. Large kitchens, generous storage and flexible living areas are intended to ease the move from a family home, with layouts that can also accommodate families and professionals looking for more space in an apartment.

The shared amenities are designed as an extension of those homes. Residents will have access to a lounge, private dining room and landscaped alfresco entertaining area. A wellness retreat brings together a magnesium pool, cold plunge, sauna, steam room and heated stone recovery bench, alongside a gym and dedicated space for Pilates and yoga.

Inside the apartments, the curves of the façade recur in the cabinetry and balustrades. Custom wall sconces, tapware and patterned parquetry sit alongside carved marble basins, hammered-glass shower screens and recessed stone niches. Timber veneer wardrobes have leather-clad drawers, while an Art Deco-inspired motif appears in the raised ceiling detail, joinery and built-in velvet bedheads.

“Maison Jolene is at once contemporary and old world, with custom-designed parquetry flooring and an art deco-inspired motif juxtaposing with the curvature of the arched facade, balustrade and internal cabinetry,” Assouline says.

The kitchens bring several of those ideas together in a sculptural, bubble-shaped island. Assouline helped design and engineer the curved form and personally selected the marble, which is bookmatched so the veining mirrors across adjoining pieces.

“With each of our projects, I look for symmetry in design,” he says. “Crafting the apartments is like solving a puzzle of one thousand pieces; one little detail wrong could mean the picture doesn’t translate correctly once it’s finished.”

HSN will develop and build Maison Jolene, overseeing the project from design through to construction. The family-owned company says it has delivered more than 270 homes, has 200 apartments under construction and has a 100 per cent completion record.

“As a private, integrated developer-builder, we maintain close control over every stage of a project,” Assouline says. “We see our projects as collaborative partnerships with our architects, interior designers and specialist trades with whom we have refined a very unique aesthetic, to ensure every detail is considered for those who will live there.”

For Nixon, the developer’s involvement in both design and construction is part of the pitch to buyers. “The attention to design excellence, combined with HSN’s proven track record in delivering ultra-high-end developments, ensures a level of rarity and enduring quality seldom seen in today’s market,” he says.

“To purchase an HSN property is to acquire a property that will not just hold its value but stand the test of time as a timeless piece of Sydney real estate.”

The Spencer Street address puts residents close to Rose Bay’s village cafés and restaurants, foreshore walks and ferry service, with beaches, golf courses and schools nearby. Maison Jolene is now selling off the plan through James Nixon and Gavin Rubinstein.

WHY THE HOUSING CRISIS IS ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE

Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.