WHY THE HOUSING CRISIS IS ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE
Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.
2 min
The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.
Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.
Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.
But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.
Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.
Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.
Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.
The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.
The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.
The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.
Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.
That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.
Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.
We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.
At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.
This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.
Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.
The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.
Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.
And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.
Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.
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At the northern tip of Point Piper, hidden from the street and positioned directly on Sydney Harbour, “Radford” combines cinematic views, rare waterfront access and a fascinating connection to one of Australia’s most storied estates.
The five-bedroom residence occupies land once belonging to Paradis Sur Mer, the celebrated three-block waterfront estate that made Australian property history in 1982. The original mansion became the country’s first home reported to have sold for more than $5 million—and may also have inspired one of its fastest and most profitable resales.
Property developer and yachtsman Bernard Lewis purchased the estate at auction for $5.25 million, only to sell it within hours to English betting magnate and thoroughbred breeder Robert Sangster. Lewis reportedly made a $500,000 profit in the process.
Sangster renamed the property Toison D’Or—French for “Golden Fleece” and the name of one of his racehorses—and established it as a Sydney base with his then-wife, Susan. The estate subsequently changed hands and identities again, becoming Paradis Sur Mer, or “Paradise on the Sea”, during Susan’s marriage to financier Sir Frank Renouf.
After another headline-making sale near the peak of Sydney’s late-1980s property boom, the original mansion was eventually demolished and the waterfront holding subdivided. “Radford” now stands on one of those prized parcels, carrying a thread of that extraordinary history into the present day.
Harbour views take centre stage
Designed by award-winning architect Victor Berk and constructed in the early 1990s, the three-level modernist residence has been planned around its exceptional position.
Panoramic views stretch from the Sydney Harbour Bridge across Shark Island and Rose Bay to Manly. A prized northerly aspect fills the home with natural light, while bedrooms and living spaces open to decks, balconies and terraces overlooking the water.
The main living areas flow to a broad alfresco entertaining terrace, sunny swimming pool and level harbourfront lawn. Beyond the garden, a private jetty completes the quintessential Sydney waterfront lifestyle.
Inside, generous proportions make the home equally suited to private family life and large-scale entertaining. The formal dining area can accommodate up to 14 guests, while a Gaggenau-appointed kitchen incorporates an island, walk-in pantry and casual breakfast area opening to the poolside deck.
A fireplace anchors the principal living space, complemented by high ceilings, travertine floors and expansive glazing that keeps the harbour present throughout the home.
A private sanctuary on every level
The main bedroom is accompanied by two walk-in wardrobes, a sitting area and an ensuite featuring a spa bath, separate shower and twin basins. Three further bedrooms each have an ensuite, while a gym with its own kitchenette, built-in storage and bathroom can serve as a fifth bedroom or private guest retreat.
Additional spaces include a fitted home office, an upper-level family area, sauna, two powder rooms and a substantial laundry. A lift connects all three levels, and the central staircase sits beneath an atrium-style glass roof fitted with an electric retractable blind.
Ducted and zoned air-conditioning, extensive storage and a security alarm add everyday practicality. Internal access leads to an oversized secure double garage, with additional driveway parking.
Set in an elite cul-de-sac on one of Australia’s most prestigious waterfront streets, “Radford” is close to Lady Martins Beach, Prince Edward Yacht Club, the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Rose Bay’s marinas and leading schools. Double Bay’s restaurants, boutiques and village amenities are only minutes away.
It is an exceptional harbourfront residence in its own right—but its connection to the record-breaking Paradis Sur Mer estate gives it a place within the wider story of Sydney real estate.
Property details
Address: Wolseley Road, Point Piper, NSW
Bedrooms: Five, including a flexible gym or guest suite
Bathrooms: Five, plus two powder rooms
Parking: Oversized double garage and additional driveway space
Key features: Northerly aspect, panoramic harbour views, private jetty, swimming pool, level waterfront lawn, lift, sauna, home office and Gaggenau kitchen
Architect: Victor Berk
Agents: Michael Pallier, Sydney Sotheby’s & Brad Pillinger, Pillinger
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