WHY THE HOUSING CRISIS IS ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE
Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.
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The Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.
Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.
Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.
But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.
Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.
Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.
Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.
The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.
The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.
The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.
Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.
That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.
Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.
We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.
At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.
This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.
Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.
The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.
Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.
And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.
Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.
As interest rates, inflation and market sentiment fluctuate, investors are being urged to focus on data, not panic.
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Château d’Ansembourg and the adjacent Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg are on the market for €37.5 Million
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The listing comprises the ancient Château d’Ansembourg and the adjacent Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg, which are within central Luxembourg’s Valley of the Seven Castles.
Château d’Ansembourg is one of the seven castles the valley is named for and is regarded as one of the country’s most important privately owned châteaus, according to Ignace Meuwissen, the founder of Whisper Auctions, who is handling the sale.
The castle sits at the heart of an almost 500-acre estate overlooking the picturesque village of Ansembourg, and records of its existence date to 1135.
Domaine du Presbytère d’Ansembourg, meanwhile, is a more than 110-acre estate comprising a former presbytery, a chapel dating to 1678, a historic school site, forests and meadows.
“Properties of this calibre rarely become available,” Meuwissen said.
“What is being offered today is far more than a chateau. The combination of nearly nine centuries of documented history, 245 hectares of land and a unique location in the Valley of the Seven Castles creates an opportunity that is exceptionally rare within Europe. Opportunities of this scale and heritage value are seldom brought to market and are often preserved within families for generations.”
The properties are being marketed through a “semi-off-market sales process,” with limited information and marketing materials publicly available, and access to the properties is reserved for a small number of pre-qualified candidates, according to Meuwissen.
Both estates have been privately occupied by the same owner, whom Meuwissen declined to identify. Mansion Global could not confirm who the seller is.
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