Tesla Stock Is Rising. Analyst Sees ‘Limited’ Focus on Fundamentals.

Tesla stock fell while the market rallied on Friday, which makes Monday’s gain a relief for investors watching the stock after its recent surge. Still, no one should mistake Tesla ’s recent moves for anything based on the fundamental factors driving the business.

Let’s back up. Tesla’s stock has been on a tear of late, which makes Friday’s move something of a puzzle. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker dropped 3.5% on Friday, closing at $421.06, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1%.

There wasn’t a great reason for the divergence. “To me, [Tesla stock] was wildly overbought and long hedge funds needed a reason to take some profits,” says Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black .

“Overbought” is a trading term that essentially means the stock has gone up a lot quickly. When that happens, it can be a sign a lot of good news is reflected in the price and that there aren’t many buyers left to fuel more gains.

Some profit-taking in Tesla shares is natural—especially considering the rally. Coming into Monday, Tesla stock had risen 69% this year and 67% since the Nov. 5 election . Shares have declined 12% from a record closing high of $479.86 on Dec. 17.

Tesla stock closed up 2.3% at $430.60, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.

One thing helping shares was a report from Barclays analyst Dan Levy . He expects the company to deliver 515,000 vehicles this quarter. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver roughly 510,00 vehicles, according to various consensus aggregators, a record for any quarter.

Better-than-expected results can help any stock, but Levy’s number is important for another reason. Tesla needs to deliver about 515,000 vehicles to increase deliveries in 2024 compared with 2023. While Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, it shipped 1,293,656 in the first three quarters of 2023, down about 7% year over year.

Levy isn’t a Tesla bull. He rates shares Hold and has a $270 price target on the stock. A “beat could keep narrative momentum strong,” wrote Levy. “But [a] focus on fundamentals [is] limited overall.”

Tesla stock has added about $170 a share since the election, boosting Tesla’s market value by more than $550 billion, even though the car business hasn’t changed all that much.

Investors, however, are thinking about earnings. They believe Tesla’s self-driving robo-taxi business will drive significant value. That business is slated to begin in late 2025.

Levy is less optimistic, though. He even used the word “meme” in his report, referring to stocks that go wild for little reason.

Overall, about 46% of analysts covering Tesla stock rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $296 a share, up about $60 sine the election.

No matter what happens in the last few days of the trading year, 2024 will have turned out quite well for Tesla investors. It is their reward for enduring volatility. Don’t forget, Tesla stock bottomed out below $$140 a share in April.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

Tesla Stock Is Rising. Analyst Sees ‘Limited’ Focus on Fundamentals.

The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.