Wall Street Wants You to Buy Gold. It’s Still Risky.
Wall Street has gold fever. Investors should be careful.
Wall Street has gold fever. Investors should be careful.
J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs advise continuing to hold gold. BNP Paribas just raised its forecast for gold prices. For months now, BlackRock has recommended buying gold to diversify portfolios.
So far, the recommendations have been spot on. The most active gold futures contract hit another record high on Thursday, closing at $2,991.30 an ounce, marking its tenth record close in 2025. The popular SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, which tracks gold bullion, also closed at a record of $275.13.
But the megarally isn’t without risks.
Gold has now closed at record levels 10 times this year, after closing out its best year in over a decade, with 46 records in 2024. Drivers for the rally have been plentiful: Strong buying from central banks, a weaker dollar, realignment of international relationships as President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on goods from the U.S.’s closest allies, and wars abroad have pushed investors to seek safety in gold.
The conventional wisdom says the path of least resistance for gold is higher in part because prices are above their 200- and 100-day moving averages of $2,619.51 and $2,756.11, respectively, based on Wednesday’s close. When a price moves above its moving average, it is a sign that an uptrend is likely to continue.
BNP Paribas forecasts gold prices will rise above $3,100 an ounce in the second quarter of 2025. It assumes the average gold price in 2025 will be $2,990, 8% higher than its prior forecast. A price of $3,100 would represent a gain of 5.2% from its closing price on Wednesday.
“The biggest change to our previous view is the impact of the Trump tariff threats, which is resulting in fears of renewed US inflation on the one hand, and slower US and global growth expectations, on the other, driving increased safe-haven demand for gold,” David Wilson, senior commodities strategist as the bank, said in a research note Wednesday.
Still, when optimism is so widespread, it is smart to also consider the risks, even with investments such as gold that are famous for being safe.
For one, it could be said that the metal is overvalued, given that it has been in a bull market since September 2022. That raises the prospect that gold has already priced in much of its potential over the period, leaving it vulnerable to corrections. Those gains could tempt early investors to sell to lock in profits.
Gold could also struggle in a world where Washington’s efforts to overhaul the federal government prove successful, even if economists have their doubts. Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is slashing the federal workforce, which the administration has said will boost productivity, critical for economic growth, as laid-off government workers find more productive jobs in the private sector.
Economic growth and gold are inversely related. When the economy is booming, investors tend to favor riskier assets like stocks over gold, which loses its appeal.
“Such a development would be terrible news for gold whose price may then return to its historical norm, as expressed in oil-equivalent terms,” wrote Charles Gave, founder of Gavekal Research, in a research note on Wednesday. This implies a 50% fall, the note says.
On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons why prices could keep rising. An index of economic uncertainty index is high, while more tariffs would lead to inflation, both benefiting gold. The possibility that the U.S. government might value its gold holdings at market prices, rather than the current $42.2222 an ounce, would help as well.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent triggered speculation about revaluation in early February , saying the U.S. wants to monetize its balance sheet. He dismissed the idea in an interview with Bloomberg last month, but market chatter about the topic continues.
Revaluing the U.S.’s gold holdings would show interest in the commodity by the government, potentially adding to the momentum in the price. The statutory price of gold, set by law , hasn’t moved since 1973.
The evidence for gains is strong. Just don’t completely ignore the risks when putting your money to work.
Corrections & Amplifications: The most active gold futures contract closed at $2,991.30 on Thursday. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said it closed at $2,984.30, the price of the front-month contract.
Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com undefined undefined
A divide has opened in the tech job market between those with artificial-intelligence skills and everyone else.
A 30-metre masterpiece unveiled in Monaco brings Lamborghini’s supercar drama to the high seas, powered by 7,600 horsepower and unmistakable Italian design.
A divide has opened in the tech job market between those with artificial-intelligence skills and everyone else.
There has rarely, if ever, been so much tech talent available in the job market. Yet many tech companies say good help is hard to find.
What gives?
U.S. colleges more than doubled the number of computer-science degrees awarded from 2013 to 2022, according to federal data. Then came round after round of layoffs at Google, Meta, Amazon, and others.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts businesses will employ 6% fewer computer programmers in 2034 than they did last year.
All of this should, in theory, mean there is an ample supply of eager, capable engineers ready for hire.
But in their feverish pursuit of artificial-intelligence supremacy, employers say there aren’t enough people with the most in-demand skills. The few perceived as AI savants can command multimillion-dollar pay packages. On a second tier of AI savvy, workers can rake in close to $1 million a year .
Landing a job is tough for most everyone else.
Frustrated job seekers contend businesses could expand the AI talent pipeline with a little imagination. The argument is companies should accept that relatively few people have AI-specific experience because the technology is so new. They ought to focus on identifying candidates with transferable skills and let those people learn on the job.
Often, though, companies seem to hold out for dream candidates with deep backgrounds in machine learning. Many AI-related roles go unfilled for weeks or months—or get taken off job boards only to be reposted soon after.
It is difficult to define what makes an AI all-star, but I’m sorry to report that it’s probably not whatever you’re doing.
Maybe you’re learning how to work more efficiently with the aid of ChatGPT and its robotic brethren. Perhaps you’re taking one of those innumerable AI certificate courses.
You might as well be playing pickup basketball at your local YMCA in hopes of being signed by the Los Angeles Lakers. The AI minds that companies truly covet are almost as rare as professional athletes.
“We’re talking about hundreds of people in the world, at the most,” says Cristóbal Valenzuela, chief executive of Runway, which makes AI image and video tools.
He describes it like this: Picture an AI model as a machine with 1,000 dials. The goal is to train the machine to detect patterns and predict outcomes. To do this, you have to feed it reams of data and know which dials to adjust—and by how much.
The universe of people with the right touch is confined to those with uncanny intuition, genius-level smarts or the foresight (possibly luck) to go into AI many years ago, before it was all the rage.
As a venture-backed startup with about 120 employees, Runway doesn’t necessarily vie with Silicon Valley giants for the AI job market’s version of LeBron James. But when I spoke with Valenzuela recently, his company was advertising base salaries of up to $440,000 for an engineering manager and $490,000 for a director of machine learning.
A job listing like one of these might attract 2,000 applicants in a week, Valenzuela says, and there is a decent chance he won’t pick any of them. A lot of people who claim to be AI literate merely produce “workslop”—generic, low-quality material. He spends a lot of time reading academic journals and browsing GitHub portfolios, and recruiting people whose work impresses him.
In addition to an uncommon skill set, companies trying to win in the hypercompetitive AI arena are scouting for commitment bordering on fanaticism .
Daniel Park is seeking three new members for his nine-person startup. He says he will wait a year or longer if that’s what it takes to fill roles with advertised base salaries of up to $500,000.
He’s looking for “prodigies” willing to work seven days a week. Much of the team lives together in a six-bedroom house in San Francisco.
If this sounds like a lonely existence, Park’s team members may be able to solve their own problem. His company, Pickle, aims to develop personalised AI companions akin to Tony Stark’s Jarvis in “Iron Man.”
James Strawn wasn’t an AI early adopter, and the father of two teenagers doesn’t want to sacrifice his personal life for a job. He is beginning to wonder whether there is still a place for people like him in the tech sector.
He was laid off over the summer after 25 years at Adobe , where he was a senior software quality-assurance engineer. Strawn, 55, started as a contractor and recalls his hiring as a leap of faith by the company.
He had been an artist and graphic designer. The managers who interviewed him figured he could use that background to help make Illustrator and other Adobe software more user-friendly.
Looking for work now, he doesn’t see the same willingness by companies to take a chance on someone whose résumé isn’t a perfect match to the job description. He’s had one interview since his layoff.
“I always thought my years of experience at a high-profile company would at least be enough to get me interviews where I could explain how I could contribute,” says Strawn, who is taking foundational AI courses. “It’s just not like that.”
The trouble for people starting out in AI—whether recent grads or job switchers like Strawn—is that companies see them as a dime a dozen.
“There’s this AI arms race, and the fact of the matter is entry-level people aren’t going to help you win it,” says Matt Massucci, CEO of the tech recruiting firm Hirewell. “There’s this concept of the 10x engineer—the one engineer who can do the work of 10. That’s what companies are really leaning into and paying for.”
He adds that companies can automate some low-level engineering tasks, which frees up more money to throw at high-end talent.
It’s a dynamic that creates a few handsomely paid haves and a lot more have-nots.
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With two waterfronts, bushland surrounds and a $35 million price tag, this Belongil Beach retreat could become Byron’s most expensive home ever.