MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26
Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.
2 min
Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.
New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.
The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.
One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.
That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.
Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.
A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.
Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.
The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.
At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.
The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.
Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.
Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.
The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.
Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.
For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.
Victorian auction buyers will soon receive a piece of information that has traditionally been withheld until bidding reaches it: the vendor’s reserve price. Under new property-sale and underquoting laws, agents must publish the agreed reserve at least seven days before an auction or fixed-date sale. Most changes begin on 1 October 2026 and apply to …
Continue reading “Victoria’s New Auction Rules Will Force Reserve Prices Into the Open”
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2 minVictorian auction buyers will soon receive a piece of information that has traditionally been withheld until bidding reaches it: the vendor’s reserve price.
Under new property-sale and underquoting laws, agents must publish the agreed reserve at least seven days before an auction or fixed-date sale. Most changes begin on 1 October 2026 and apply to auctions and fixed-date sales held from 16 October.
The reserve must be presented as a single dollar amount. Advertising and the new Property Price Statement must be updated to match it, without qualifiers such as “from”, “over” or “starting at”. If the reserve has not been published seven days before the scheduled sale, the auction or fixed-date sale cannot proceed and penalties may apply.
For buyers, the immediate benefit is clearer budget discipline. A purchaser should be less likely to pay for inspections, strata reviews, contract advice and loan preparation on a property whose seller will not accept a price within the advertised range.
That does not mean the published reserve predicts the result. Competitive bidding may still carry a property far beyond it. Nor does it remove the need to value the property independently. The reserve is the seller’s minimum at that stage of the campaign, not an expert statement of market value.
The Statement of Information will be replaced by a more prominent Property Price Statement. Agents must disclose key features of the property and of the comparable sales used to support the quoted price. Where three appropriate comparables cannot be identified, one or two must be supplied if they exist.
Sold-price transparency will also increase. Agents must add the unconditional sale price to the Property Price Statement within seven days and keep that statement available publicly for at least 18 months, subject to limited exemptions including personal or family-violence concerns.
Later changes will require Section 32 vendor statements to be made available earlier, including at least 14 days before an auction or fixed-date sale from June 2027. From July 2027, agents will be prevented from taking commission from deposits released before settlement.
Vendors and agents will need to adjust campaign strategy. Setting a reserve earlier may reduce last-minute flexibility and make price expectations more visible to competing buyers. Some vendors may prefer private treaty campaigns, although those sales remain subject to broader pricing and disclosure laws.
For buyers, the practical response is not simply to bid up to the disclosed reserve. Use it as one data point alongside comparable sales, building and pest reports, owners-corporation records, planning constraints and finance approval. Decide on a maximum before the auction and do not confuse the seller’s minimum with your own valuation.
Key dates
– 1 October 2026: Most new rules commence
– 9 October 2026: First reserve disclosures may be required for sales on 16 October
– 16 October 2026: New reserve rules apply to auctions/fixed-date sales from this date
– 1 June 2027: Earlier Section 32 availability begins
– 1 July 2027: Restrictions on commission from released deposits begin
– 1 December 2027: Broader sold-price reporting to Consumer Affairs begins
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