MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025

Melbourne’s residential market appears to be on a comeback path, with a pricing recovery expected to take shape from late 2025 and continue through 2026 as borrowing costs ease and demand holds up.

New research by the MaxCap Group, commercial real estate fund manager, argues that lower mortgage rates will be the key catalyst for the next upswing, with stabilising sentiment and gradually improving activity reinforcing the turn.

The city has underperformed since 2022. While Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide posted strong gains, Melbourne recorded a modest correction.

One effect has been a lift in relative affordability. Local prices now sit below a wide set of comparable markets, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Adelaide, and could trail Perth by year end.

That discount is expected to endure even as prices rise, reflecting differences in tax settings, investor participation and recent growth momentum elsewhere.

Several cyclical and structural forces are in play. Higher interest rates and softer sentiment have been a clear headwind over the past two years.

A heavier state tax take as Victoria pursues budget repair has also weighed on investor activity. Property-related imposts such as land transfer duty and land tax are taking a larger share of state revenues in 2025–26, and that has cooled appetite at the margin.

Set against those drags are supportive fundamentals. Population growth remains robust, interstate outflows are easing, and the construction pipeline is constrained.

The research estimates an 8,000-dwelling shortfall in Victoria in 2025, with the shortage most acute in the city of Melbourne. Rental markets remain tight, with a residential vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent in August pointing to ongoing pressure on rents and a continued incentive to build.

At a sub-market level, undersupply is most evident across the inner and middle rings and through the south-east corridor. There are early signs of price stabilisation, with more than half of the most-traded suburbs shifting from annual declines to annual growth.

The initial gains are concentrated in more affordable fringe areas, where price points and borrowing capacity are best aligned as rates begin to fall.

Looking ahead, model-based projections indicate prices should lift as mortgage rates decline, incomes rise and building activity gradually recovers. The upgrade cycle is expected to be measured rather than explosive.

Without near-term reform to property taxes, the recovery is likely to be more subdued than previous Melbourne upswings, and the city’s price discount to other capitals is expected to persist through this cycle.

The research also contrasts Melbourne’s broader post-pandemic performance with other markets, noting a deeper peak-to-trough decline in CBD office values than Sydney.

Even so, the residential turnaround is framed as primarily a function of the interest rate cycle rather than policy shifts. Risks to the outlook include a slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts, construction cost pressures that delay supply, and any renewed deterioration in investor sentiment.

For buyers, the combination of improved affordability, tightening rental conditions and the prospect of lower rates suggests a narrowing window before momentum rebuilds. For sellers, the message is that late 2025 into 2026 should deliver firmer conditions, especially in well-located, appropriately priced stock across the inner and middle rings where undersupply is most pronounced.

An ultra-luxury Main Beach penthouse with 360-degree views of the beach, hinterland and city skyline has hit the market with an $18 million price tag, as buyers seeking a rare slice of coastal opulence continue to drive the top-end of the Gold Coast market.

The sprawling 600sqm residence will occupy the upper two floors of the 29-level La Mer tower on Main Beach Parade, and has been released as its construction reaches top-out, ahead of completion later this year.

The lavish penthouse boasts four bedrooms, all with ensuites, including an ocean-facing master retreat with private lounge, a kitchen designed for a private chef, a rooftop pool, huge entertaining zone with outdoor kitchen, a grand staircase, and its own express lift.

Demand for high-end Gold Coast property remains strong, with a Burleigh penthouse sold off-the-plan for $30 million earlier this year, surpassing the $24 million record set in 2023.

“The La Mer penthouse represents exceptional value, considering its quality design, size, privacy and location – not to mention the 360-degree views capturing the beach and Gold Coast Broadwater,” said OTP Group director James Elliott, who is marketing the project.

“We’re anticipating interest from high-net worth individuals and couples seeking a residence or holiday home in the sought-after village enclave of Main Beach, taking advantage of the unprecedented growth underway in the area and neighbouring The Spit.”

The $155 million La Mer is being developed by developer-builder ODUS and Nazero, in partnership with funder Metrics Credit Partners.

ODUS Director Byron Sakha said with construction powering ahead and the 29-level structure now complete, it was the ideal time to launch the penthouse to the market.

“We’ve worked with internationally-recognised studio, Sici Design, on the penthouse interiors, with a focus on ensuring it isn’t luxury for luxury’s sake – every element has been thoughtfully designed to enhance quality of life for those who call it home,” he said.

“The views are the hero of virtually every space, but we’ve given equal attention to the fittings and finishes, so every detail exudes elegance and refinement.

“Now that construction of La Mer has topped out, prospective buyers can experience how the building is taking shape and the exceptional location on offer, just 68 steps from the sand.”

Sici Design founder and director Maria Papadopoulos said the penthouse interiors exemplified effortless luxury living.

“The views weren’t something we designed around, they became part of the design itself, with the true luxury of La Mer in its feeling of peace, calm and wellbeing,” she said.

“Luxury isn’t defined by how something looks, but how it makes you feel, and we believe a luxurious home should be beautiful to live in, not stressful to maintain.”

Refined yet durable materials include premium natural stone Austral Dream Dolomite, with travertine bringing warmth and timelessness, complementing timber flooring, and a coastal colour palette.

The ocean-facing resort-style master retreat occupies half the upper level, with its own private balcony, lounge room, two walk-in wardrobes, and an oversized ensuite with double shower, double vanity, and solid stone freestanding bath overlooking the views.

The kitchen features a 3.6-metre statement island bench and expansive butler’s pantry, complemented by a dedicated wine cellar and integrated bar area.

Designed by architects, Plus Studio, La Mer features 24 full-floor, three-bedroom plus multipurpose room residences, along with the dual-level penthouse. Exclusive resort-style facilities include a pool, spa, fully-equipped gym, sauna, barbeque facilities, private sun lounges, yoga lawn and an outdoor beach shower.

The penthouse is being launched as part of the final release of apartments at La Mer, with prices starting from $4.3 million.

MELBOURNE HOUSING POISED FOR CYCLICAL RECOVERY IN 2025–26

Lower interest rates, firm population growth and tight supply set the stage for a late-2025 upturn, though Melbourne’s price discount to other capitals is likely to persist, according to new research.