The Sydney suburbs leading property price recovery in 2023
Prices could be back to their peak before the end of the year, new data shows
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Australian house prices are bouncing back with some areas hardest hit expected to hit their peak in the second half of 2023, leading real estate firm Ray White reports.
Chief economist for Ray White, Nerida Conisbee said figures revealed that Sydney, which experienced the largest decline over the past year, is now leading the price recovery, with growth up by 4.1 percent since December 2022.
In Mosman, where the median price fell by $530,000 over 2022, there has already been an increase of $172,000. Manly, the northern and eastern suburbs of Sydney, Chatswood-Lane Cove, Dural and Pennant Hills-Epping have also shown strong signs of bouncing back with price increases in excess of $100,000.
South Canberra is the only area outside NSW to record similar increases, with prices up by more than $104,000 from December 2022 to March 2023.
“While Sydney’s most expensive suburbs dominate the list of top growth suburbs, there are two outliers,” Ms Conisbee said. “South Canberra has seen an increase of $100,000 this year, while the regional NSW town of Dural is up a similar amount. Premium markets led the 2022 downturn and are now leading the way out of it in 2023.”
However, not all areas have bounced back so strongly so far. Canada Bay in the inner west and Ryde-Hunters Hill, which saw median prices fall by $367,664 and $347,505 respectively did not make it into the top 10 greatest increases.
Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
Borrowers cannot control the Reserve Bank, but they can control how exposed their household budget is to its next decision. The RBA meets on 29 September with inflation concerns still elevated and major-bank economists increasingly bringing forward their rate-rise calls. Fixed mortgage rates have also been moving, reducing the value of waiting for perfect certainty. …
Continue reading “What mortgage holders should do before the next RBA decision”
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A property portfolio can look comfortable until several small pressures arrive together: a rate increase, a vacancy, higher insurance and an unexpected repair. The correct time to model that combination is before it occurs.
Start by recalculating every loan at 0.25, 0.50 and one percentage point above its current rate. Include principal-and-interest repayments even where a loan is temporarily interest-only, because the eventual step-up may be larger than the next RBA move.
Then calculate true net rent. Deduct management, council and water charges, strata, insurance, maintenance, land tax where applicable and a vacancy allowance. A property advertised with an attractive gross yield can produce a very different result after these costs.
Third, review the portfolio’s liquidity. An offset account can reduce interest while keeping cash accessible, but investors should obtain tax advice before moving funds between loans. The distinction between investment and private debt affects deductibility, and poorly structured redraws can create lasting complexity.
Fourth, examine refinancing risk rather than just today’s rate. A highly leveraged investor may be unable to refinance on the same terms because the new lender tests total debt at a higher assessment rate. Credit-card limits, owner-occupied debt and shaded rental income can all reduce capacity.
Fifth, rank properties by resilience. Consider net yield, vacancy risk, near-term capital expenditure, tenant demand, debt attached and the cost of selling. This is not an instruction to sell the weakest performer automatically; transaction costs and tax consequences matter. It is a way to identify where pressure would emerge first.
Investors should also review fixed-rate and interest-only expiry dates. A portfolio with several facilities resetting in the same quarter carries concentration risk even when each loan appears manageable individually.
The goal is not to predict the RBA perfectly. It is to ensure that one policy decision does not force a rushed refinancing, sale or reduction in essential maintenance. A portfolio that can absorb higher rates and temporary income interruptions gives its owner time to make deliberate decisions.
Read more: What mortgage holders should do before the next RBA decision
Portfolio checklist
Stress test: Current rate plus 0.25, 0.50 and one percentage point.
Model: Net rent after every recurring cost and vacancy.
Check: Fixed-rate expiries, interest-only expiries and loan maturity.
Preserve: An accessible emergency buffer.
Review: Insurance, land tax, strata works and major maintenance.
Seek advice: Licensed credit, financial and tax advice before restructuring.
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