A surge in for-sale listings tipped to dampen home price growth
The forecast slowdown comes on the back of sharp increases in home values
3 min
The number of new for-sale listings has been stubbornly sluggish for much of the year, but there are growing signs would-be vendors are finally feeling confident to go to market.
New analysis indicates this surge in supply is likely to put the brakes on a renewed boom in property prices being seen across much of the country.
According to data from research firm CoreLogic, national home values rose 2.9 percent in the three months to July – the highest quarterly movement since January.
Across the capital cities, values were up 0.8 percent last month – down slightly from a 1.2 percent lift seen in June.
Prices are rising fastest in Sydney, with a whopping 4.5 percent jump in the three months to July.
Prices rose 4.2 percent in Brisbane in the quarter, while Adelaide and Perth each recorded a 3.2 per cent increase. Values in Melbourne were up two per cent.
“Home values are down 3.4 percent annually, but declines are quickly subsiding from an eight per cent drop in the year to March,” Eliza Owen, head of residential research at CoreLogic, observed.
Data shows the number of new listings nationally hit 33,616 in the four weeks to 30 July, trending slightly higher through the month, which she noted is unusual for this time of year.
“The flow of new listings added to the market has been rising since mid-June, in contrast to the usual seasonal trend where new vendor activity would be trending lower through the colder months.”
With more homes hitting the market ahead of the traditionally busy spring selling season, Paul Ryan, economist at data house PropTrack, said price growth could dampen in the months ahead.
“There have been some tentative signs that sellers are responding to continued strong buyer demand and higher prices by bringing more listings to market,” Mr Ryan said.
PropTrack modelling shows a low level of new listings could be responsible for as much as a quarter of the price growth seen this year, and the impact of low supply can be felt within a few months.
“This analysis suggests that a stronger flow of listings could weigh on home price growth later this year as the market gears up for the spring selling season,” Mr Ryan said.
“And importantly, it shows the impact on prices is likely to be felt quite quickly after any new listings are brought to market – within one to two months.”
Mr Ryan said property markets have “displayed a remarkable turnaround in 2023”.
“Home prices fell persistently over 2022, down 4.1 percent from April to December, during the sharpest episode of interest rate increases ever implemented by the Reserve Bank,” he said.
“But 2023 has seen national home prices increase each month, up 2.8 percent so far this year, despite continued increases in interest rates.”
One major factor for the rapid turnaround in price movements is the low supply of new listings hitting the market, he said. Buyer demand has remained strong.
“The flow of new listings over the first half of 2023 was around 15 percent below the level seen over the same period in 2022, which represents a significant decrease.
“By contrast, the total number of homes on the market has mostly drifted upward as homes take longer to sell compared to the strong market conditions in 2021.”
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Strong population growth, major infrastructure spending and comparatively affordable property are expected to cement Melbourne’s position as Australia’s most attractive long-term real estate market.
2 min
Melbourne is poised to become Australia’s largest city within the next decade, with strong population growth, infrastructure investment and relative affordability driving long-term property demand.
A new research report from Knight Frank argues the Victorian capital remains one of the country’s most compelling markets for investors, businesses and residents.
The report highlights the city’s rapidly expanding population, diverse economy and major infrastructure pipeline as key factors underpinning future property growth.
Knight Frank Managing Director Victoria, Dominic Long, said Melbourne’s fundamentals continue to position the city strongly for long-term investment.
“Melbourne continues to stand out as one of Australia’s most compelling real estate markets,” he said.
“It is Australia’s strongest long-term growth city with the fastest growing population, the most diversified economy, world-class liveability and the most affordable major market for office, industrial and residential property.”
Population growth driving demand
Melbourne’s population has grown at an average rate of 1.8 per cent per year since 2000, faster than any advanced global economy, according to the research.
In the year to June 2025 alone, the city added about 123,500 residents, the largest annual increase of any Australian capital.
Population growth is expected to remain one of the key drivers of demand across residential and commercial property markets, including housing, offices and logistics space.
The report forecasts Melbourne’s population will overtake Sydney’s by the 2030s, reinforcing its position as the country’s fastest-growing major city.
Office market offering value
Melbourne’s CBD office market is also attracting renewed attention from investors.
Prime office rents remain significantly lower than in competing cities, with CBD office space about 46 per cent cheaper than Sydney and around 13 per cent cheaper than Brisbane.
That relative affordability is expected to drive long-term demand from occupiers and investors seeking value in Australia’s largest office markets.
The city’s office sector is also showing signs of recovery, with effective rents rising in 2025 and demand increasing for high-quality buildings in premium locations.
Industrial market benefiting from scale
Melbourne’s industrial sector continues to expand, supported by strong population growth, e-commerce demand and the scale of the city’s logistics network.
The city already hosts the country’s largest industrial market, with about 34 million square metres of warehousing stock and significant land available for future development.
Industrial rents remain competitive compared with other capitals, while Melbourne’s port handles the largest container volumes in Australia, further supporting demand for logistics space.
Infrastructure pipeline supporting growth
More than $200 billion in transport infrastructure investment between 2014 and 2036 is also expected to reshape the city and support future property values.
Major projects include the Metro Tunnel, the West Gate Tunnel, the North-East Link and the Suburban Rail Loop, which together will improve connectivity across Melbourne and its growth corridors.
Knight Frank’s Head of Research & Consulting, Victoria, Dr Tony McGough, said these investments would play a key role in supporting the city’s economic expansion.
“Melbourne is Australia’s most economically diverse city and has delivered stable growth for more than two decades,” he said.
“With strong population growth, a highly educated workforce and unprecedented infrastructure investment, Melbourne is well placed to remain one of Australia’s most attractive long-term property markets.”
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