A surge in for-sale listings tipped to dampen home price growth
The forecast slowdown comes on the back of sharp increases in home values
3 min
The number of new for-sale listings has been stubbornly sluggish for much of the year, but there are growing signs would-be vendors are finally feeling confident to go to market.
New analysis indicates this surge in supply is likely to put the brakes on a renewed boom in property prices being seen across much of the country.
According to data from research firm CoreLogic, national home values rose 2.9 percent in the three months to July – the highest quarterly movement since January.
Across the capital cities, values were up 0.8 percent last month – down slightly from a 1.2 percent lift seen in June.
Prices are rising fastest in Sydney, with a whopping 4.5 percent jump in the three months to July.
Prices rose 4.2 percent in Brisbane in the quarter, while Adelaide and Perth each recorded a 3.2 per cent increase. Values in Melbourne were up two per cent.
“Home values are down 3.4 percent annually, but declines are quickly subsiding from an eight per cent drop in the year to March,” Eliza Owen, head of residential research at CoreLogic, observed.
Data shows the number of new listings nationally hit 33,616 in the four weeks to 30 July, trending slightly higher through the month, which she noted is unusual for this time of year.
“The flow of new listings added to the market has been rising since mid-June, in contrast to the usual seasonal trend where new vendor activity would be trending lower through the colder months.”
With more homes hitting the market ahead of the traditionally busy spring selling season, Paul Ryan, economist at data house PropTrack, said price growth could dampen in the months ahead.
“There have been some tentative signs that sellers are responding to continued strong buyer demand and higher prices by bringing more listings to market,” Mr Ryan said.
PropTrack modelling shows a low level of new listings could be responsible for as much as a quarter of the price growth seen this year, and the impact of low supply can be felt within a few months.
“This analysis suggests that a stronger flow of listings could weigh on home price growth later this year as the market gears up for the spring selling season,” Mr Ryan said.
“And importantly, it shows the impact on prices is likely to be felt quite quickly after any new listings are brought to market – within one to two months.”
Mr Ryan said property markets have “displayed a remarkable turnaround in 2023”.
“Home prices fell persistently over 2022, down 4.1 percent from April to December, during the sharpest episode of interest rate increases ever implemented by the Reserve Bank,” he said.
“But 2023 has seen national home prices increase each month, up 2.8 percent so far this year, despite continued increases in interest rates.”
One major factor for the rapid turnaround in price movements is the low supply of new listings hitting the market, he said. Buyer demand has remained strong.
“The flow of new listings over the first half of 2023 was around 15 percent below the level seen over the same period in 2022, which represents a significant decrease.
“By contrast, the total number of homes on the market has mostly drifted upward as homes take longer to sell compared to the strong market conditions in 2021.”
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Mirvac’s 45-level Trielle has topped out at Yarra’s Edge, pairing riverfront apartments with wellness facilities, private dining and resident services.
3 min
Mirvac has topped out Trielle at Melbourne’s Yarra’s Edge, with more than 70 per cent of the riverfront development sold and approximately 80 per cent of purchasers intending to make their apartment a home.
The figures, released on September 22, point to an owner-occupier audience for one of the precinct’s final residential towers. Mirvac began developing Yarra’s Edge in 2003, and its latest addition occupies one of the remaining absolute riverfront sites.
Mirvac CEO of Development Stuart Penklis said existing residents were among those moving up within the neighbourhood.
“Many purchasers already have a connection to Yarra’s Edge,” Mr Penklis said, describing buyers whose changing needs were encouraging an upgrade within the precinct.
“As one of the final residential towers within Yarra’s Edge, Trielle represents the culmination of more than two decades of creating one of Melbourne’s most established and sought-after waterfront communities,” Penklis said.
“Positioned on the Collins Street axis with absolute river frontage, Trielle offers residents a rare opportunity to enjoy sweeping views across the Yarra River, Melbourne skyline and Port Phillip Bay, while remaining seamlessly connected to the CBD. With Trielle now more than 70 per cent sold, we’re continuing to see strong demand from buyers seeking quality homes in established locations.”
The developer also flagged a penthouse and sub-penthouse collection with larger layouts, premium finishes and broad outlooks. The planned wellness centrepiece, The Oasis, encompasses a 900-square-metre elevated urban rainforest.
Mirvac General Manager Residential Development Victoria Elysa Anderson said Trielle had resonated strongly with buyers seeking a rare lifestyle offering in Melbourne.
“Opportunities to secure a new luxury residence on a riverfront site of this calibre are incredibly rare, particularly within a community like Yarra’s Edge,” Anderson said.
“What makes Trielle unique is the combination of exceptional views, world-class residential facilities and the lifestyle that already exists around it. Residents are buying into a mature waterfront community with parks, promenades, dining, wellness and strong community connections already in place.”
The 45-level tower brings a substantial new presence to that waterfront. Its residential offering spans one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, with Signature, Prestige and Sub-Penthouse collections accommodating different household sizes. The north-facing position connects the apartments visually to the river and city beyond.
Seven storeys above the promenade, the planned Oasis combines planting and a running stream with a Scandinavian-inspired wellness club developed with spa specialist Naomi Gregory. Facilities include a 25-metre lap pool, hot magnesium pool, sauna, hydrotherapy, a gym, yoga and Pilates room, and treatment spaces.
The amenity extends beyond exercise. Residents will have access to The Biblioteca library and workspaces, ground-floor work pods, and The Salone piano lounge. A private Chef’s Table dining room offers a setting for larger gatherings, while a cinema, games room and sports lounge broaden the entertaining options. Concierge services and a dog-wash area support everyday routines.
Trielle comprises a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences. Reflecting strong demand from owner occupiers, approximately 80 per cent of purchasers to date intend to live in their homes, highlighting the project’s appeal to those seeking a long-term waterfront lifestyle.
Mirvac has recently delivered The Albertine, a premium apartment development on the edge of Melbourne’s CBD, and is nearing completion of Prince & Parade in Brunswick, further strengthening its portfolio of thoughtfully designed apartment communities in some of Melbourne’s most sought-after urban locations.
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