ANZ Bank Tips House Price Rise | Kanebridge News
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ANZ Bank Tips House Price Rise

A predicted 17% rise this year could lock out first-home buyers.

By Terry Christodoulou
Thu, Mar 25, 2021 11:34amGrey Clock < 1 min

Australian housing prices are set to rise 17% in 2021 across capital cities according to ANZ economists.

Sydney and Perth housing prices are predicted to rise by 19% in 2021, with Hobart (18%), Melbourne and Brisbane (16%) and Adelaide (13%), following on.

ANZ reported that property prices rose a rapid 9% in the month of February, accelerating sharply from the 0.5– 0.6% gains over the previous three months.

The latest figures are a stark difference from the forecast 9% national rise for 2021 previously predicted by the bank.

ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said she expected the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) would then introduce macroprudential measures later in the year to slow house price growth to 6% in 2022.

The new forecast figures comes as the red-hot property market continues to surge amid ultra-low interest rates, the likelihood that rates will stay low and pent-up demand following last year’s lockdown measures.

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House values continued to fall last month, but the pace of decline has slowed, CoreLogic reports.

In signs that the RBA’s aggressive approach to monetary policy is making an impact, CoreLogic’s Home Value Index reveals national dwelling values fell -1.0 percent in November, marking the smallest monthly decline since June.

The drop represents a -7.0 percent decline – or about $53,400 –  since the peak value recorded in April 2022. Research director at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, said the Sydney and Melbourne markets are leading the way, with the capital cities experiencing the most significant falls. But it’s not all bad news for homeowners.

“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3 percent,” he said. “That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3 percent in November.  In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5 percent over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8%.”

The rate of decline has also slowed in the smaller capitals, he said.  

“Potentially we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls,” Mr Lawless said. “However, it’s fair to say housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.” 

The RBA has raised the cash rate from 0.10 in April  to 2.85 in November. The board is due to meet again next week, with most experts still predicting a further increase in the cash rate of 25 basis points despite the fall in house values.

Mr Lawless said if interest rates continue to increase, there is potential for declines to ‘reaccelerate’.

“Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire,” Mr Lawless said.

Statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this week also reveal a slowdown in the rate of inflation last month, as higher mortgage repayments and cost of living pressures bite into household budgets.

However, ABS data reveals ongoing labour shortages and high levels of construction continues to fuel higher prices for new housing, although the rate of price growth eased in September and October. 

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