Australian home market’s first test of the year
It’s the first big auction day of 2024 as the gap between apartment and house values widens
2 min
The Australian property market will undergo its first major test tomorrow when 1,700 capital city homes go under the hammer on the first significant auction day of the year. CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said it will be the second biggest start to February on record behind 2022 when 1,779homes went to auction. In the country’s two biggest auction markets, there will be 608 auctions held in Melbourne and 591 in Sydney.
Ms Ezzy said auction clearance rates weakened to below-average levels toward the end of last year and tomorrow’s event would “help set the pace for the pre-Easter selling season and provide a timely test of buyer demand”.
She added: “This week’s results could help indicate whether the weaker selling condition seen towards the end of last year has persisted into 2023 or if sentiment has lifted with earlier expectations of rate cuts following [this week’s] inflation update.”
Australia’s median home value moved higher for the twelfth consecutive month in January, up 0.4 percent. This follows an 0.3 percent uplift in both November and December. However, price performance is mixed across the capital cities, with Perth once again delivering outstanding growth at 1.6 percent in January. CoreLogic research director, Tim Lawless explained: “The western capital continues to see housing demand outweigh supply, helping to push values 16.7 percent higher over the past 12 months. Despite that, housing prices remain relatively affordable compared with most capital cities, with the median dwelling value sitting just under $677,000.”
Adelaide home values lifted 1.1 percent in January, Brisbane prices rose by 1 percent and Sydney values moved up 0.2 percent. Conversely, Hobart home values fell 0.7 percent, Canberra prices dipped 0.2 percent and Melbourne declined by 0.1 percent.
Mr Lawless noted that house prices across Australia continued to rise faster than apartments. The price gap is now at a new record high of 45.2 percent. House values across the capital cities lifted by 0.5 percent in January, equivalent to about $4,800 in value, while apartments lifted 0.1 percent, or about $900 in value. “Since the commencement of the upswing, capital city house values have surged 11 percent higher while unit values are up 6.9 percent,” Mr Lawless said. “It seems that most Australians are willing to pay a higher premium than ever for a detached home.”
Sales volumes remain elevated, with CoreLogic estimating 115,241 dwellings were sold over the three months ending January, which was 11.9 percent higher than the same time last year. “Despite ongoing cost of living pressures, high interest rates, low consumer sentiment and affordability constraints, homes are still selling, Mr Lawless said. “Housing demand has been buoyed by high migration, but also tight rental markets that have probably incentivised renters to transition towards home ownership if they can afford to do so.”
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Australia’s housing challenge is increasingly about conversion: moving approved projects through finance, commencement and completion.
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Australia’s housing debate often treats a development approval as though it were a completed home. In practice, the distance between those two milestones can stretch for years—and a growing number of projects never cross it.
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council reported in August that approximately 308,000 homes had been completed since the Housing Accord period began, roughly one quarter of the national target. It also identified 244,000 dwellings under construction in the March quarter, the largest pipeline recorded since 1984, while approvals and commencements had improved against their pre-Accord comparisons.
Those numbers show activity, but they also expose the conversion challenge. A planning consent establishes what may be built. It does not lock in the price of labour and materials, guarantee a construction loan or persuade enough buyers to sign unconditional contracts.
For apartment developers, the first hurdle is feasibility. Land, consultant, authority, finance and construction costs must be covered by realistic sales revenue. When building prices rise faster than achievable apartment values, a project can be approved and still be economically unbuildable.
The second hurdle is debt. Financiers typically require substantial equity, a fixed or sufficiently certain building contract and presales to acceptable purchasers. Valuers may discount speculative pricing, while lenders can treat contracts with long settlement periods or highly concentrated buyer profiles cautiously.
Presales form the third constraint. Owner-occupiers may prefer to see construction under way before committing; developers often need commitments before construction can begin. This circular dependency is particularly difficult for first-time developers and projects in untested locations.
The practical metric for policymakers and the industry is therefore not approvals in isolation, but conversion: how many approved dwellings progress to finance, commencement and completion, and how long each step takes.
There are no simple fixes. Faster planning can reduce holding costs, but cannot rescue an unviable scheme. Government-backed finance can help suitable projects, but should not disguise unrealistic land values. Standardised design and modern construction methods may improve productivity, provided procurement risk and quality control are addressed.
For buyers, an approval or sales launch should be viewed as the start of the delivery process—not proof that a home will exist on schedule. The most relevant questions concern finance, builder appointment, sunset provisions, deposits and the developer’s record of completing comparable projects.
Australia has made progress in filling the front end of the housing pipeline. The next challenge is getting those homes out the other end.
Mirzaian is a senior director within CBRE’s Development NSW business, operating across the company’s Western Sydney and North Sydney offices
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