AUSTRALIAN HOME VALUES FALL IN OCTOBER, BUT IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS
The latest figures follow on from a continued decline in values in recent months
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Consecutive and aggressive interest rate hikes appear to have taken their toll on residential property prices as national home values fell by -4.1 percent in the three months to October 2022, data from CoreLogic reveals.
The decline was consistent across Australian capitals and regional areas, with combined regional values falling by -4.1 percent compared with -4.0 percent in the combined capitals.
The latest figures bring the drop in dwelling values over 12 months to -0.9 percent and represents a slowing in the pace of decline from -1.4 percent in September to -1.2 percent in October.
Digging deeper, Sydney home prices have continued to fall, by -1.3 percent in October, -10.2 percent less than the record high in January this year. Prices also fell in October in the southern capital of Melbourne, which saw a -0.8 percent decrease in values in October. CoreLogic reports Melbourne dwelling values are not -6.4 percent below the record high in February 2022.
Hobart has also experienced a -5.7 percent drop in values below the record high, which was recorded in May this year. October values dropped by -1.1 percent and by -4.4 percent ovet the quarter.
The news in Adelaide was mixed. While values dropped by -0.3 percent in October, they have increased by 16.5 percent over the past year. It’s a less dramatic story in Brisbane, where values fell by -2.0 percent in October but have increased by 8.4 percent over the past 12 months.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
Philip Lowe’s comments come amid property industry concerns about pressures on mortgage holders and rising rents
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Leaders in Australia’s property industry are calling on the RBA to hit the pause button on further interest rate rises following yesterday’s announcement to raise the cash rate to 4.1 percent.
CEO of the REINSW, Tim McKibbin, said it was time to let the 12 interest rate rises since May last year take effect.
“The REINSW would like to see the RBA hit pause and allow the 12 rate rises to date work their way through the economy. Property prices have rebounded because of supply and demand. I think that will continue with the rate rise,” said Mr McKibbin.
The Real Estate Institute of Australia today released its Housing Affordability Report for the March 2023 quarter which showed that in NSW, the proportion of family income required to meet the average loan repayments has risen to 55 percent, up from 44.5 percent a year ago.
Chief economist at Ray White, Nerida Conisbee, said while this latest increase would probably not push Australia into a recession, it had major implications for the housing market and the needs of ordinary Australians.
“As more countries head into recession, at this point, it does look like the RBA’s “narrow path” will get us through while taming inflation,” she said.
“In the meantime however, it is creating a headache for renters, buyers and new housing supply that is going to take many years to resolve.
“And every interest rate rise is extending that pain.”
In a speech to guests at Morgan Stanley’s Australia Summit released today, Governor Philip Lowe addressed the RBA board’s ‘narrow path’ approach, navigating continued economic growth while pushing inflation from its current level of 6.8 percent down to a more acceptable level of 2 to 3 percent.
“It is still possible to navigate this path and our ambition is to do so,” Mr Lowe said. “But it is a narrow path and likely to be a bumpy one, with risks on both sides.”
However, he said the alternative is persistent high inflation, which would do the national economy more damage in the longer term.
“If inflation stays high for too long, it will become ingrained in people’s expectations and high inflation will then be self-perpetuating,” he said. “As the historical experiences shows, the inevitable result of this would be even higher interest rates and, at some point, a larger increase in unemployment to get rid of the ingrained inflation.
“The Board’s priority is to do what it can to avoid this.”
While acknowledging that another rate rise would adversely affect many households, Mr Lowe said it was unavoidable if inflation was to be tamed.
“It is certainly true that if the Board had not lifted interest rates as it has done, some households would have avoided, for a short period, the financial pressures that come with higher mortgage rates,” he said.
“But this short-term gain would have been at a much higher medium-term cost. If we had not tightened monetary policy, the cost of living would be higher for longer. This would hurt all Australians and the functioning of our economy and would ultimately require even higher interest rates to bring inflation back down.
“So, as difficult as it is, the rise in interest rates is necessary to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable timeframe.”
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
