China’s Wobbles Could Throw the Global Economy Off Its Axis

About the author: Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was previously a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and the chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.

Today, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande, a Chinese company that was one of the world’s largest property developers. After years of fruitless negotiations between the company and its creditors over the restructuring of its $300 billion debt mountain, a Chinese court said that “enough was enough.” In a blow to an already troubled Chinese housing market, it ordered that the company’s assets be liquidated to pay back its creditors.

How mainland China handles Hong Kong’s court order could have major implications for Chinese property prices and foreign investor confidence. If it enforces the court’s order, that could see an acceleration in Chinese home-price declines by adding to supply in an already glutted market. It could also heighten social tensions by disappointing around 1.5 million Chinese households who have put down large deposits for homes that are yet to be completed.

If it ignores the Hong Kong court’s order, it risks dealing a further blow to waning investor confidence. Questions would arise about China’s willingness to abide by the rule of law and to offer a safe economic environment for investors.

The Evergrande liquidation comes at an awkward time for the Chinese economy. It is already in deep trouble and could be headed for a Japanese-style lost economic decade. The news also suggests that China will disappoint the consensus view that the Chinese economy is headed for only a minor economic slowdown this year. This could have major implications for the U.S. and world economic outlook, considering that China is the world’s second-largest economy and until recently was its main engine of economic growth.

Even before Evergrande’s liquidation order, a whole set of indicators suggested that the former Chinese economic growth model was dead. Chinese home prices have been falling for more than a year; both wholesale and consumer prices have been falling; stock prices have plummeted as foreign investors have taken fright; and youth unemployment has risen to around 20%.

There have also been questions about President Xi Jinping’s economic stewardship. First, his disastrous zero-tolerance Covid policy contributed to the country’s slowest economic growth in 30 years. Now his increased economic intervention is undermining the underpinnings of the Chinese economic growth miracle unleashed by Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in the 1980s.

Chinese stocks rose last week on news that authorities are taking steps to stimulate the economy. But anyone thinking that the Chinese economy will respond favourably to yet another round of policy stimulus has not been paying attention to the size of that country’s housing and credit market bubble that has now burst. Nor have they been paying attention to the troubling degree to which that country’s economy has become unbalanced.

According to Harvard’s Ken Rogoff, the Chinese property market now accounts for almost 30% of that country’s GDP. That is around 50% more than that in most developed economies. Meanwhile, over the past decade Chinese credit to its non financial private sector expanded by 100% of GDP, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That is a larger rate of credit expansion than that which preceded Japan’s lost economic decade in the 1990s and that which preceded the 2008 bursting of the U.S. subprime and housing market.

The overall Chinese economy is highly unbalanced in the sense that it has become overly reliant on investment demand. The Chinese investment-to-GDP ratio is over 40%, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s sharply higher than the more normal 25% ratio in most other developed and mid-sized emerging market economies.

The consensus forecast is that Chinese economic growth this year will continue at a 5% clip. Anyone relying on that forecast should reflect on the many failures by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central bankers to foresee the grave problems of the subprime housing market in the U.S. in early 2008. It would seem that most economists are downplaying indications of major Chinese economic problems that are plain sight. Chinese economic problems could unleash serious deflationary forces for the U.S. and global economy. The Federal Reserve would be ignoring them at its peril.

Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors.

One of Burleigh Heads’ most architecturally significant penthouses has hit the market for the first time since its completion five years ago.

The listing provides the first real look inside the two-level penthouse crowning Norfolk, Forme’s award-winning Goodwin Terrace development which was completed in 2021.

The penthouse sold off the plan for $5.35 million around 18 months before construction was completed and has remained tightly held ever since, meaning its resale offers the first insight inside one of Burleigh’s most architecturally impressive apartment buildings.

The four-bedroom residence spans approximately 461 sqm, comprising 276 sqm of internal living and a further 185 sqm of outdoor space across its two levels.

Its position on Goodwin Terrace gives the penthouse one of the Gold Coast’s comparatively rare true north-to-water aspects, with views stretching from Burleigh Headland along the coastline towards the towers of Surfers Paradise. Floor-to-ceiling glazing has been used extensively throughout the residence, framing the ocean outlook from almost every principal living space.

Forme, led by Managing Director David Calvisi, acquired the prime 1,012 sqm site, formerly home to The Fish House restaurant, before developing Norfolk as the first new multi-residential project delivered on Goodwin Terrace in around three decades.

The strength of the location was clear. The more unusual proposition was the building itself.

Forme appointed Koichi Takada Architects to design the 10-level development, marking the practice’s first Gold Coast building. Rather than treating Norfolk’s beachfront setting as a backdrop, Takada used the Norfolk Island pines along the foreshore as the basis for the architecture.

Curved balcony slabs and horizontal battens create the building’s distinctive layered exterior. Sliding timber screens can be repositioned for privacy, shade and protection from the coastal conditions, continuously changing the appearance of the façade.

Takada has compared the concept to the structure of a pinecone, whose overlapping layers open and close according to environmental conditions. In an earlier account of the project, the architect said the objective was to celebrate the site and create a stronger connection between the residences and the elements outside.

The response helped turn Norfolk into an architectural marker for Burleigh’s transformation.

Norfolk comprises 12 half-floor apartments, two dual-level penthouses and one two-level beach house. MIM Design created the interiors, Hutchinson Builders undertook construction and Plus Architecture supplied documentation services for the builder.

Inside Residence 901, MIM Design’s restrained palette brings together timber, natural stone and tailored joinery without competing with the outlook. Travertine surfaces have subsequently received paint-protection film, while the home is being offered with a custom furniture package.

A private lift opens directly into the main living level. Living, dining and media spaces are arranged along the view, accompanied by a concealed bar and a broad north-eastern terrace.

The kitchen has an oversized stone island, European appliances and bespoke cabinetry, supported by a butler’s pantry and separate scullery. An integrated RTI system controls lighting, climate, fans, security, entertainment and audio using in-home touchscreens or a smartphone application.

The principal suite occupies a private wing with ocean views, a dressing room and ensuite. Two additional bedrooms have their own ensuites, while a fourth bedroom can operate as an executive study. A concealed Murphy bed allows that room to accommodate guests when required.

The rooftop is what moves the residence beyond even a generously proportioned beachfront apartment.

Reserved exclusively for the penthouse, it contains a heated lap pool, landscaped gardens, several entertaining areas and an alfresco kitchen with a built-in barbecue. An integrated outdoor cinema allows the rooftop to function as an open-air screening room above the Pacific.

Four side-by-side secure car spaces, dedicated electric-vehicle charging and private storage address practical constraints often encountered by prestige-apartment buyers. The parking allocation is particularly relevant for owners moving from a large house or maintaining a car collection.

Norfolk’s wider amenities include a beach-club-style residents’ area, swimming pool, gymnasium and sauna. Burleigh Beach is directly opposite, while James Street, Burleigh Head National Park and restaurants including Rick Shores and The Tropic are within walking distance.

The building’s reputation has also moved well beyond its beachfront address. Norfolk received both jury and popular-choice honours in the mid-rise multi-unit housing category at the 2022 Architizer A+Awards. It won a Queensland Australian Institute of Architects award for multiple housing and was named the 2022 Medium-Density Residential Development of the Year by The Urban Developer. Further recognition came from the Master Builders awards and Architecture MasterPrize.

Calvisi later said the aim with Norfolk was to produce something the Gold Coast had not previously seen.

The penthouse is being marketed through expressions of interest by Dean Pegoraro of Whitefox Gold Coast.

China’s Wobbles Could Throw the Global Economy Off Its Axis

A two-level penthouse atop Burleigh Heads’ award-winning Norfolk development has hit the market for the first time, offering sweeping ocean views and a private rooftop pool.