“Don’t Fear A Crash”: Dr Andrew Wilson

Kanebridge News: Let’s cut straight to it – your response to the almost daily diatribe being espoused by the naysayers in regards to the national housing market, specifically Sydney, and predictions about its alleged imminent failure?

Dr Andrew Wilson: Such attention-seeking crash predictions have consistently proved to be wrong in the past, and will again prove just as wrong this time. The prospect for the preconditions for falling house prices – sharp increases in interest rates – has never been more remote.

KN: How do you view market movement in the major capitals the next 12 months?

AW: Strong growth in all capitals – Melbourne, Sydney and Perth top performers all likely higher by 10%. Price’s growth will likely decline over the year as affordability falls through higher prices with flat interest rates and low incomes growth.

KN: And the residential rental market?

AW: Lower vacancy rates and higher rents for houses compared to units generally across the board.

KN: Perennial question then – advice for those trying to get into the property market this year?

AW: Maximise your buying potential. Be prepared to compromise. Be prepared to be disappointed. Consider buying first and then selling. As always, consult a financial advisor.

KN: How important is data use in property and how can a novice best apply such sets in regards to a purchase?

AW: Reliable, real-time data provides the foundation for property decision making – enhanced by objective, rational commentary that joins the dots.

KN: What do you see as the most important data consideration(s) when assessing movement in a specific market?

AW: Local supply and demand factors, matched with the overarching macroeconomic drivers and real-time market activity measures of prices and volumes.

My Housing Market’s founder Dr Andrew Wilson.

KN: Clearance rates across the country, specifically Sydney, have recently hit record highs — how do you analyse such numbers, given this is unprecedented?

AW: The Sydney market is responding to high levels of affordability with prices – despite recent strong growth – still at the levels of four years ago. Over that period mortgage rates have fallen by over 1% and incomes have increased by over 6%, giving buyers the capacity to pay more for property. With credit restrictions and coronavirus impediments now eased – the market has clear air to catch up.

KN: Your take on why we’re a property engaged culture?

AW: High aspiration for home ownership and investment underpinned by a strong financial sector and enhanced taxation benefits.

KN: To those that might not know you – you formerly worked as a chief economist for the Domain group, Australian Property Monitors before launching My Housing Market.

AW: Well, my background is in the science and philosophy of housing market economics — I was an academic researcher and lecturer at RMIT University before I worked my way to chief economist at Domain Group and, now, running my own offering and analytics through My Housing Market.

KN: What was the impetus to launch My Housing Market – and how does the platform differentiate itself from what else is out there?

AW: My Housing Market combines high-level, comprehensive, real-time data insights into property markets with detailed, credible and reliable expert commentary. The ‘what’ and the ‘why’.

KN: What is it about property that you’re drawn to?

AW: I have to live somewhere.

KN: Well played …

Kanebridge News uses real-time data supplied by My Housing Market.

There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.

The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.

The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.

The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”

Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”

The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.

ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.

While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.

It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.

“Don’t Fear A Crash”: Dr Andrew Wilson

A rapid fire tete-a-tete with the leading Australian economist and founder of My Housing Market.

This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents