Australian Economy Posts Weakest Growth Since Early 1990s

Australia’s commodity-rich economy recorded its weakest growth momentum since the early 1990s in the second quarter, as consumers and businesses continued to feel the impact of high interest rates, with little expectation of a reprieve from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near term.

The economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, with annual growth running at 1.0%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The results were in line with market expectations.

It was the 11th consecutive quarter of growth, although the economy slowed sharply over the year to June 30, the ABS said.

Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic period, annual growth was the lowest since 1992, the year that included a gradual recovery from a recession in 1991.

The economy remained in a deep per capita recession, with gross domestic product per capita falling 0.4% from the previous quarter, a sixth consecutive quarterly fall, the ABS said.

A big area of weakness in the economy was household spending, which fell 0.2% from the first quarter, detracting 0.1 percentage point from GDP growth.

On a yearly basis, consumption growth came in at just 0.5% in the second quarter, well below the 1.1% figure the RBA had expected, and was broad-based.

The soft growth report comes as the RBA continues to warn that inflation remains stubbornly high, ruling out near-term interest-rate cuts.

RBA Gov. Michele Bullock said last month that near-term rate cuts aren’t being considered.

Money markets have priced in a cut at the end of this year, while most economists expect that the RBA will stand pat until early 2025.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned this week that high interest rates are “smashing the economy.”

Still, with income tax cuts delivered at the start of July, there are some expectations that consumers will be in a better position to spend in the third quarter, reviving the economy to some degree.

“Output has now grown at 0.2% for three consecutive quarters now. That leaves little doubt that the economy is growing well below potential,” said Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics.

“But if activity does continue to disappoint, the RBA could well cut interest rates sooner,” Surya added.

Government spending rose 1.4% over the quarter, due in part to strength in social-benefits programs for health services, the ABS said.

Australian home prices increased for the 19^th consecutive month in August, with the national median price rising by 0.5% to a median $802,357, according to new figures from CoreLogic. However, there is significant diversity between the capital city markets, with some areas recording price falls. Home values rose the most in Perth at 2 percent but fell the most in Canberra by 0.4 percent.

CoreLogic says the pace of price growth across the country is slowing, primarily due to affordability constraints and an easing of very tight supply and demand in the strongest markets. Over the three months ending August 30, the national median rose by 1.3 percent, which is less than half the 2.7 percent increase recorded over the same period last year.

Perth remains the hottest property market in the country, with values rising 2 percent to a median of $785,250 last month. Values rose by 1.4% in Adelaide to a median $790,789, and by 1.1% in Brisbane to a median $875,040. Sydney home values lifted by 0.3% to a median price of $1,180,463.

Four capital cities saw a fall in home prices in August, led by Canberra with an 0.4 percent fall to a median value of $845,875. Melbourne and Darwin recorded an 0.2 percent drop to a median of $776,044 and $504,367, respectively. Hobart values softened by 0.1 percent to $655,114.

For the first time since February 2015 when Western Australia was coming out of a mining boom, Perth’s median home value is now higher than Melbourne’s median price. Adelaide has also reached a new milestone with its median value also exceeding Melbourne’s for the first time in the four decades that CoreLogic has been tracking home prices.

Melbourne’s median price is now the third lowest among the capital cities. While the city’s higher proportion of apartments skews its overall home price median lower, there are other factors behind Melbourne’s softening market. These include higher supply, with Victoria building more homes over the past decade than any other state or territory, and lower investor demand due to increased taxes.

CoreLogic’s Head of Research, Eliza Owen said seasonality may have contributed to weaker overall value growth throughout Winter, but affordability was the greater factor. Higher interest rates are limiting buyers’ borrowing capacity and high cost of living pressures are reducing demand.

CoreLogic estimates that an affordable purchase for a median-income household is just $500,000. However, the national median value has just risen above $800,000. Ms Owen said this discrepancy has likely narrowed the buyer pool to wealthier and higher-income buyers.

Sydney

Sydney’s median house price rose by 0.3 percent in August to $1,471,892. The median apartment price rose by 0.5 percent to $859,050.

Melbourne

Melbourne’s median house price fell by 0.2 percent in August to $929,715. The median apartment price dipped 0.1 percent to $610,652.

Brisbane

Brisbane’s median house price increased by 0.9 percent in August to $966,382. The median apartment price rose by 1.7 percent to $653,325.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s median house value lifted 1.4 percent in August to $844,963. The median apartment price rose by 1.5 percent to $555,464.

Perth

Perth’s median house price rose strongly by 1.9 percent in August to $818,839. The median apartment price increased by 2.2 percent to $561,582.

Canberra

Canberra’s median house price eased 0.3 percent in August to $967,933. The median apartment price fell 0.5 percent to $579,774.

Hobart

Hobart’s median house price dipped 0.4 percent in August to $692,606. The median apartment price went the other way, rising by 1.3 percent to $549,569.

Darwin

Darwin’s median house price dipped by 0.1 percent in August to $589,392. The median apartment price fell 0.5 percent to $355,297.