House And Unit Value Disparity At All Time High
Unit values have continued to underperform.
Unit values have continued to underperform.
Market desire for space has seen the price gap between houses and units accelerate to a new record high.
According to CoreLogic’s new monthly Unit Market Update, the disparity between Australia’s house and unit values has reached 28.3% in January the highest ever level.
House prices across the country have seen the highest growth rates since 1989 — up 24.8% —however units have increased only 14.3% in the 12 months to January.
Report author and CoreLogic research Analyst Kaytlin Ezzy said houses do typically outpace units, albeit not at the market current place.
“The annual performance gap between houses began to narrow in the final three months of last year — in part due to the lifting of lockdowns and border restrictions, as well as increasing affordability constraints diverting demand towards the medium to high-density sector,” Ms Ezzy explained.
“However, in January we saw that annual performance gap start to widen again, which could, in part, be explained by the disparity between advertised house and unit supply.”
Unit values have continued to underperform, however, there are shifting tides in some capital cities. Canberra (5.6%), Darwin (2.6%), regional Victoria (5.7%), and regional Tasmania (9.2%) all recorded stronger unit growth over the last quarter compared to houses.
Hobart’s unit market has in the past 12 months been the nation’s strongest performer with median prices up 32.8% over the year compared to 26.3% capital gain for houses.
Sydney’s unit values have also sharply ascended 15.4% with the median price to $837,640 which is the highest in Australia.
Over the same period, capital city house listings were down 12.5% compared to this time last year and 32.7% below the five-year average.
Yet, despite the threat of interest rates rising, Ms Ezzy said unit markets could see increased demand this year.
“It is likely affordability constraints will gradually pull some demand away from houses towards more affordable units and with international borders opening this month, Australia may gradually see a return to pre-COVID levels of migration.”
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Buying activity by companies fell in line with the decline in overall home sales amid higher borrowing costs
Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too.
Companies bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by real-estate brokerage Redfin during the third quarter, compared with 94,000 homes during the same quarter a year ago. The percentage decline in investor purchases was the largest in a quarter since the subprime crisis, save for the second quarter of 2020 when the pandemic shut down most home buying.
The investor pullback represents a turnaround from months ago when their purchases were still rising fast. These firms bought homes in record numbers last year and earlier this year, helping to supercharge the housing market.
Now, investors are reducing their buying activity in line with the decline in overall home sales, which have slumped with mortgage rates rising fast. But with investors’ large cash positions, and with big firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. planning to increase its exposure to the home-buying business, investors are poised to resume more aggressive buying when rates or home prices begin to ease.
These firms have seized on a pandemic-driven rise in demand for houses in suburban areas. These owners rented out the homes and increased rents on homes by double-digit percentages. By the first quarter of 2022, investors accounted for one in every five home purchases nationally.
But ballooning borrowing costs have kept investors from buying as much recently, said John Pawlowski, an analyst at Green Street. Buyers and sellers are also agreeing less often on pricing, stifling sales.
“It leads to a lot of people just putting down the pen,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
Rent growth has also begun to slow. Rents for single-family homes rose 10.1% year over year in September, down from 13.9% in April, according to housing data firm CoreLogic.
That rate of growth is still very high by historical standards, however, and much stronger than in the apartment market. Multifamily rent increases are now much lower by most measures. Near record-high rental prices are failing to attract as many new tenants, and demand in the third quarter fell to its lowest level in 13 years.
Demand for rental houses has held up better, in part because many of these homes are leased to relatively high-earning people who have found the for-sale market too expensive to buy, some analysts say.
That rent growth for single-family owners hasn’t translated into stock-market gains this year. Investors have lumped these owners in with home builders and sold many of them. Shares for the three largest publicly traded owners, Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent and Tricon Residential, are each down more than 25% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500 over that period.
Rental landlords also face headwinds from rising property tax assessments that have come alongside enormous increases in home-price appreciation.
At the same time, large rental landlords are coming under greater scrutiny from federal and local governments. Congressional Democrats have hosted a series of hearings focused on eviction practices and rent increases. Three Congress members from California this month introduced a bill called the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act,” which proposes levying new taxes on single-family landlords. It would prevent government-sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac from acquiring and securitising their debt.
Many of the places where investors have eased purchasing are the same cities where they had counted for an outsize share of total sales. That includes Las Vegas and Phoenix, where investor sales dropped more than 44% in the third quarter compared with a year ago.
Fewer purchases by online house-flippers, or iBuyers, may have contributed to those declines, according to Redfin. Redfin decided to close its own home-flipping business, RedfinNow, earlier this month.
Nationally, investors still accounted for 17.5% of all home sales in the third quarter, a higher share than they held at any time before the pandemic, by Redfin’s count.
That share seems likely to rise again. Builders with unsold homes due to widespread cancellations by traditional buyers have been looking to sell in bulk to rental landlords.
Meanwhile, some institutional investors are now readying large funds to snap up homes. J.P. Morgan’s asset-management business said this month it had formed a joint venture with rental landlord Haven Realty Capital to purchase and develop $1 billion in houses. A unit of real-estate firm JLL’s LaSalle Investment Management, in partnership with the landlord Amherst Group, said it plans to buy $500 million of homes over the next two years.
Tricon has nearly $3 billion it plans to tap to buy and build homes. “We will lean in and deploy that capital when the time is right,” Tricon’s Chief Executive Gary Berman said on a November earnings call.
While a recession could bring down borrowing rates, it would likely be accompanied by higher unemployment, making it difficult for traditional buyers to take advantage, said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. For investors, however, that could offer an opportunity to acquire homes at favourable prices.
“An investor may have more resources to jump in at exactly the moment when rates decline,” Ms. Fairweather said.
The market is forced to confront the impact of COVID lockdowns.