Prestige house values fall in regional centres

Properties on the NSW far north coast have lost almost half the value they gained during the pandemic, CoreLogic results show.

The property data provider’s Regional Market Update has revealed a fall of -24.2 percent in the Richmond-Tweed region, which takes in regional prestige markets including Byron Bay, Bangalow and Brunswick Heads, over the year to April. During COVID, prices in the region rose by 51 percent. The Richmond-Tweed also saw the greatest rates of vendor discounting at -7.9 percent and the biggest fall in annual sales activity at -39.9 percent.

CoreLogic noted that following the surge in values during the pandemic, where working remotely became normalised and buyers sought refuge in regional areas, the area had experienced severe flooding, as well as the impacts of rising costs of living.

Southern regions of NSW also took a hit, with house values falling in the Southern Highlands by -16 percent and the Illawarra by -13.7 percent. The Southern Highlands also recorded the longest time to sell on the market at a median of 79 days.

CoreLogic Australia economist Kaytlin Ezzy said the results were not surprising.

“Over the past year, premium lifestyle markets have been hardest hit by softer market conditions and rate increases,” she said.

“These markets were among the largest beneficiaries of regional migration through the COVID-induced upswing and, as a result, became significantly more sensitive to the rising cost of debt and the normalisation in regional migration trends.”

However, not all regional prestige markets experienced the same downturn in values. The south east region in South Australia, including Kangaroo Island, the Fleurieu Peninsula and the Limestone Coast saw values increase by 10.8 percent over the year to April.

There was less volatility recorded in more affordable regional areas, with mild declines recorded.

“Despite two interest rate rises over the first few months of the year, these markets offer relative affordability, have low listing levels, increased regional migration inflows and strong economic activity off the back of mining, agriculture and tourism. This has all helped support mild value growth,” Ms Ezzy said.

“Values are influenced by more than just interest rates, such as stock levels, migration, local economic factors and an improvement in consumer sentiment, which are helping to stabilise values across some regional markets.”

Australia’s hoped-for recovery in housing construction is losing momentum before it has had time to close the national supply gap.

Sales of new detached homes fell 10 per cent nationally in August, according to the Housing Industry Association’s survey of major volume builders across the five largest mainland states. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

The fall was broad rather than isolated. Victoria recorded the largest retreat, down 27 per cent, followed by Queensland at 20.2 per cent, New South Wales at 17.5 per cent, South Australia at 10.8 per cent and Western Australia at 8.2 per cent.

Across the three months to August, sales were 19.3 per cent below the preceding three-month period and 7.7 per cent lower than the equivalent period a year earlier.

New-home sales matter beyond the immediate fortunes of volume builders. They are an early indicator of future starts: buyers sign contracts, finance is finalised, approvals are secured and construction follows months later. A sustained sales decline during the middle of 2026 is therefore likely to weaken commencements during 2027.

The slowdown reflects the collision of several pressures. Households have absorbed multiple interest-rate rises, reducing borrowing capacity and increasing the repayment cost attached to a new build. Established-home prices have softened in some markets, weakening the relative appeal of waiting through a construction period. Builders continue to face elevated labour and material costs.

The Reserve Bank’s August analysis showed new-dwelling construction prices increased 1.8 per cent during the June quarter and 5.3 per cent over the year. It attributed part of the pressure to oil-derived building products and other conflict-related costs.

Policy uncertainty can also cause buyers and investors to defer large commitments. But the precise contribution of any single tax or regulatory change is difficult to isolate from rates, confidence, land prices and construction costs. The HIA survey should be read as an indicator from large builders rather than a complete count of every dwelling sale.

The figures complicate progress towards the Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council reported 308,000 completions since the Accord began and 244,000 dwellings under construction in the March quarter. Approvals and commencements had improved, but falling sales risk undermining the next wave.

For developers and governments, the warning is that planning approvals alone do not create homes. Projects need finance, viable construction pricing and buyers able to settle. If one part fails, approved supply can remain on paper.

Data box

National August new-home sales: Down 10 per cent

Three months to August: Down 19.3 per cent from the preceding three months

Year-on-year three-month comparison: Down 7.7 per cent

Victoria: Down 27 per cent

Queensland: Down 20.2 per cent

New South Wales: Down 17.5 per cent

South Australia: Down 10.8 per cent

Western Australia: Down 8.2 per cent

Prestige house values fall in regional centres

Byron Bay property data signals a decline in values for regional prestige markets

New detached-home sales fell 10% nationally in August, led by a 27% decline in Victoria, raising concerns about construction starts in 2027.