Housing Supply Falling Along The East Coast
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Housing Supply Falling Along The East Coast

Supply-chain issues are affecting house-and-land packages.

By Kanebridge News
Wed, Mar 2, 2022 2:25pmGrey Clock 2 min

A dire undersupply of new housing lots is on the horizon due to construction delays and is expected to dire up the price of house-and-land packages on the Australian east coast this year following a surge in prices in 2021.

Housing analyst Colin Keane, a director at Research4 expects months of delay.

“It has no supply and customers are still lining up,” said Mr Keane.

Surprisingly, Sydney didn’t take top prize for the most lot sales but did take the ribbon when it came to price growth, up 34% in 2021 from $534,000 from $430,000 for house-and-land packages.

According to Mr Keane, a lack of active supply drove a 50% drop in sales volumes in the latter half of 2021 following record sales volumes in the first half of the year.

“The lack of supply resulted in an estimated nine months of demand being left on the table.

’The number of active [housing] estates dropped from 150 to 75 in one quarter, with a further 21 expected to end in early 2022. [This is] a massive impact on capacity to supply [new lots], he told Financial Review.

Further, the average size of a Sydney housing estate had slumped from a long-term average of 275 to just 78 lots in 2021.

Melbourne, the country’s biggest residential land market, saw 21,000 lot sales in 2021. Prices increased 15% as first home buyers and others priced out of established housing headed to outer suburbs.

Elsewhere on the east coast, south-east Queensland developers are benefitting from the undersupply situation in Sydney and influx of Melbourne buyers.

“Average land sales for 2021 were 41 per cent higher than the past seven-year average … and prices went up 16%” Mr Keane said.

South-east Queensland loot sales approached Melbourne levels with 1900 per month in the June quarter, there was still not enough to meet demand with Mr Keane estimating four months of demand left in the market that he expects will drive up prices in the short term.



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Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.

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Early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month.

By Robb M. Stewart
Tue, Apr 15, 2025 3 min

OTTAWA–The nascent recovery in Canada’s housing market has become a casualty of the trade dispute with the U.S.

The latest national home-resale data are due out Tuesday, but early indications from several big regional real-estate boards suggest March was overall another down month as many prospective buyers exercised caution.

The recent weakness in home sales has dimmed the previously brighter outlook for the property market coming into 2025, when buyers were encouraged by the Bank of Canada’s aggressive interest-rate cuts.

“The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier,” said Robert Hogue , assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Hogue said resales are down materially in a number of markets two months running, and home prices in several markets are coming under pressure as inventories rise. And although Canada was spared additional levies when President Trump unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries earlier this month, no meaningful rebound is likely so long as trade uncertainty lingers, he said.

Home buyers in Toronto, Canada’s most populous city and the country’s financial hub, aren’t turning up for the usual spring pickup in property-market activity.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area slumped 23.1% in March from a year earlier, as new listings for the region jumped close to 29%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. That marked the worst month of resales since 1998.

The board’s chief information officer, Jason Mercer , said many potential home buyers were likely taking a wait-and-see approach given the economic worries as well as a pending federal election. “Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” he said, adding that ownership has become more affordable and prices in the area fell about 3.8% year on year in March.

Uncertainty is also weighing on the housing market in Calgary, the biggest city in oil-rich Alberta. The city’s real-estate board said realtors reported a 19% drop in sales of existing homes from last year, with a similar trend of improving supply and a sharp increase in the average number of days that homes were on the market.

On the West Coast, home sales registered in the metro Vancouver area of British Columbia were the lowest for March since 2019, falling 13.4% on a year earlier and coming in close to 37% below the 10-year seasonal average, while active listings continued to rise.

There are some areas of resilience. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said total sales in the province were up 9% year on year in March. Still, RBC’s Hogue estimated Montreal sales in March were down about 15% from December seasonally adjusted, effectively rolling back the advance since the end of last summer.

The most recent national data for the country, from the Canadian Real Estate Association, showed resales dropped 9.8% month over month in February, when homebuyers may also have been put off by harsh winter storms in parts of the country. That marked the sharpest fall since May 2022 and brought the level of sales to their lowest level since November 2023, snapping signs that activity had been picking up in recent months.

Rishi Sondhi , an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a recent report estimated the country was tracking toward a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single-digit drop in Canadian average home prices for the first three months of 2025. That is much weaker than a pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December that projected a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest gain in sales and prices.

Central-bank officials are set to decide Wednesday on monetary policy, but they have signaled a cautious approach to rates as they balance the prospect of tariffs stoking price pressures against the likelihood that they will dampen demand and weigh on the economy. That could mean the Bank of Canada will pause after seven straight cuts to its policy rate.

Housing is a hot topic for party leaders campaigning ahead of the April 28 election, with both the incumbent Liberal Party and opposition Conservatives proposing tax cuts and incentives to encourage buyers and builders.

The outlook for new homes has also dimmed with the tariff threat. The value of residential-building permits issued in February fell 2.9% from a month prior, adding to a retreat in January that took back some of the surge in intentions in the final month of last year, Statistics Canada data last week showed.

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