Industry body calls for government enquiry to address housing crisis
The housing affordability crisis demands attention now, as values are on the move again, REINSW says
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A leading real estate industry body has called for a government enquiry to address ‘skyrocketing housing demand’.
CEO of the Real Estate Institute of NSW, Tim McKibbin said the contrast between the demand for housing and the available stock is already at ‘critical’ levels – and is only set to get worse.
“REINSW is calling for an immediate and expeditious Inquiry into the inhibitors of supply and then a brutal action plan involving industry and Government to implement the recommendations,” Mr McKibbin said.
“The community is sick of all the talk on this issue. It’s time for action and this means government and industry working together now.”
Homebuyers unable to find a property at their price point have remained in the rental market, where a lack of supply is putting further pressure on rental prices, which have soared 10.2 percent in the past year.
Data from PropTrack has shown rental vacancy rates were at an historic low in March this year. As rental properties become available and have been quickly leased, landlords have had the opportunity to increase rent, further impacting households’ ability to save for a deposit.
In capital cities, rents have risen 13 percent year-on-year, while in regional areas, rents have gone up by 4.5 percent.
CoreLogic reported house values are also on the move, which Mr McKibbin said put the goal of buying a home further out of reach.
“Higher house prices and rents are an unavoidable market consequence of a housing shortfall, and without more social and affordable housing, increased homelessness is a catastrophic social consequence,” he said.
“There is already evidence of prices beginning to rebound and we need to remember that the bull-run through the pandemic typically pushed median prices up between 20 percent and 30 percent, depending on the area.
“The rebound in house prices is no surprise. The lack of supply is the primary enemy of affordability.”
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Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Ray White’s chief economist outlines her predictions for housing market trends in 2024
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Ray White’s chief economist, Nerida Conisbee says property price growth will continue next year and mortgage holders will need to “survive until 2025” amid expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
Ms Conisbee said strong population growth and a housing supply shortage combatted the impact of rising interest rates in 2023, leading to unusually strong price growth during a rate hiking cycle. The latest CoreLogic data shows home values have increased by more than 10 percent in the year to date in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Among the regional markets, price growth has been strongest in regional South Australia with 8.6 percent growth and regional Queensland at 6.9 percent growth.
“As interest rates head close to peak, it is expected that price growth will continue. At this point, housing supply remains extremely low and many people that would be new home buyers are being pushed into the established market,” Ms Conisbee said. “Big jumps in rents are pushing more first home buyers into the market and population growth is continuing to be strong.”
Ms Conisbee said interest rates will be higher for longer due to sticky inflation. “… we are unlikely to see a rate cut until late 2024 or early 2025. This means mortgage holders need to survive until 2025, paying far more on their home loans than they did two years ago.”
Buyers in coastal areas currently have a window of opportunity to take advantage of softer prices, Ms Conisbee said. “Look out for beach house bargains over summer but you need to move quick. In many beachside holiday destinations, we saw a sharp rise in properties for sale and a corresponding fall in prices. This was driven by many pandemic driven holiday home purchases coming back on to the market.”
3 key housing market trends for 2024
Here are three of Ms Conisbee’s predictions for the key housing market trends of 2024.
Luxury apartment market to soar
Ms Conisbee said the types of apartments being built have changed dramatically amid more people choosing to live in apartments longer-term and Australia’s ageing population downsizing. “Demand is increasing for much larger, higher quality, more expensive developments. This has resulted in the most expensive apartments in Australia seeing price increases more than double those of an average priced apartment. This year, fewer apartments being built, growing population and a desire to live in some of Australia’s most sought-after inner urban areas will lead to a boom in luxury apartment demand.”
Homes to become even greener
The rising costs of energy and the health impacts of heat are two new factors driving interest in green homes, Ms Conisbee said. “Having a greener home utilising solar and batteries makes it cheaper to run air conditioning, heaters and pool pumps. We are heading into a particularly hot summer and having homes that are difficult to cool down makes them far more dangerous for the elderly and very young.”
More people living alone
For some time now, long-term social changes such as delayed marriage and an ageing population have led to more people living alone. However, Ms Conisbee points out that the pandemic also showed that many people prefer to live alone for lifestyle reasons. “Shorter term, the pandemic has shown that given the chance, many people prefer to live alone with a record increase in single-person households during the time. This trend may influence housing preferences, with a potential rise in demand for smaller dwellings and properties catering to individuals rather than traditional family units.”
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
