Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic Growth

Growth in the U.S. and global economies slowed in May as high inflation and rising interest rates dented demand, business surveys said Tuesday.

Business activity at services businesses in the U.S., eurozone, U.K. and Australia all grew more slowly in May amid rising prices, according to S&P Global surveys. The firm’s purchasing managers index surveys also reported Tuesday that factories in major global economies face supply-chain disruptions related to Covid-19 surges and the Ukraine war, as well as higher fuel costs and rising wages.

Separate U.S. figures on Monday pointed to slower growth in a segment of the housing market. The Commerce Department said purchases of newly built single-family homes declined in April for the fourth straight month, dropping 16.6% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000. That marked the slowest pace of sales since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic.

New-home sales are a relatively narrow slice of all U.S. home sales, and sales figures can be volatile and subject to revisions. Still, the drop adds to signs the housing market is slowing amid record home prices and rising mortgage rates.

The global economy faces a series of obstacles this year, ranging from Covid-19 lockdowns in China, soaring energy and food prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a broadening drive by central banks to combat high inflation by increasing borrowing costs.

Some businesses are planning for a significant slowdown in growth or economic contraction.

Electronics retailer Best Buy Co. reported falling sales and profits for the latest quarter and said its results for the current fiscal year will be worse than it had previously predicted amid increased sales promotions and higher supply-chain expenses. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. swung to a quarterly loss, hurt by higher freight and product costs.

Retailers have posted mixed results for the first quarter. Last week, Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. posted weaker-than-expected earnings.

The surveys of purchasing managers at businesses in some of the world’s largest and richest economies indicate that activity continues to be supported by the easing of restrictions on the services sector as Western societies learn to live with Covid-19, with sectors such as tourism experiencing a strong recovery. Still, high inflation, geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates are clouding the outlook.

In the U.S., S&P Global said its composite purchasing managers index—which measures activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors—was 53.8 in May, down from 56.0 in April and the weakest rate of growth in four months. Separately, S&P Global said its index for the eurozone’s services and manufacturing sectors fell to 54.9 in May from 55.8 in April. A reading above 50.0 points to an expansion in activity, while a figure below that threshold points to a contraction.

While the surveys point to continued growth in the second quarter, they appear to have exaggerated the strength of the global economy during the first three months of the year.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, economic output in its 38 members was just 0.1% higher in the three months through March than it was in the final quarter of 2021, a sharp slowdown from the 1.2% growth recorded in the three months through December.

Economists at Capital Economics say that, based on their history, the PMIs pointed to growth in rich countries of around 0.5%.

“This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of Covid restrictions, all of which should fade from now on allowing the PMIs to give a more accurate steer,” wrote Ariane Curtis in a note to clients.

Facing the full brunt of the jump in energy prices triggered by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, European policy makers are preparing for tough economic times ahead.

“It’s now very clear that the economic toll of this war is world-wide,” said Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe after heading a meeting of eurozone treasury chiefs Monday. “High prices and disruption to food supplies are rippling across the world with very serious consequences for the most vulnerable in our societies.”

According to the surveys of purchasing managers, the U.K. has suffered the sharpest blow to activity in the wake of the invasion. S&P Global said its PMI for the country slumped to 51.8 in May from 58.2 in April to hit its lowest level in 15 months. Inflation hit a four-decade high in April as home energy prices surged.

“In the U.K., we are facing a very big negative impact on real incomes caused by the rise in prices of things we import, notably energy,” said Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, in a speech Monday. “We expect that to weigh heavily on demand.”

Citing the impact of the conflict on energy and food prices, the United Nations last week lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.1% from 4%, and its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% from 3.5%.

Business leaders share those worries. A survey conducted by the Conference Board and released Tuesday found chief executive officers at 56 of Europe’s leading companies had become much more gloomy about their prospects in the six months since the last poll. The measure of confidence fell to 37 from 63, with a reading below 50.0 indicating that more CEOs are pessimistic than optimistic about the outlook.

The idea of wallpaper elicits so much apprehension in homeowners, New York designer Francis Toumbakaris purposely uses the term “wallcovering” when speaking to clients about it. Yet decorating websites and media accounts teem with instances of the stuff. “It transforms a room and gives it personality,” said Casey Keasler, founder of design studio Casework, in Portland, Ore.

So what keeps folks from hanging the gorgeous material, and how do homeowners get over these wallpaper willies? Here, some case studies of conversions.

Hangup: It’s too pricey.

Budget concerns can hamstring homeowners. Home-services company Angi estimates that wallpaper can cost as much as $12 a square foot for labor and materials, while painting tops out at $6. “If the wall surface needs work beforehand, prices go up,” said Bethany Adams, an interior designer in Louisville, Ky. And Keasler notes that paper can cost as much as $400 a roll.

Antidote: Baby steps

New York designer Tara McCauley says homeowners can get more hang for their buck by using paper strategically. In an apartment in Brooklyn whose homeowners sweated the bottom line, she coated only the hallway with a dark-blue pattern inspired by Portuguese tiles. “It added so much impact,” McCauley said of the modest use. The designer adds that another way to save money is by hanging what she calls the gateway drug to wallpaper: patternless grass cloth. With no need to align a motif, the material goes up quickly and costs less to install, she says, “but it adds visual depth in a way plain paint never could.”

Hangup: I’ll get sick of it

A fear of commitment stops many would-be wall paperers, who worry about having a change of heart later. Erik Perez, a design publicist with his own firm in Los Angeles, campaigned hard for what he thought was the perfect old-Hollywood look for his and his husband’s dining room—a maximalist, leafy green wallpaper made famous by the mid-20th-century decoration of the Beverly Hills Hotel. His husband, Paul Hardoin, a voice-over actor, resisted. “Is it going to go out of style? Will I tire of it? Will it affect resale value?” he worried.

Erik Perez, right, and his husband, Paul Hardoin, in their Los Angeles dining room, clad in CW Stockwell’s Martinique paper. Photo: Julie Goldstone for WSJ

Antidote: Low-use spaces

Infrequently used rooms can carry a bold choice long-term. Of the Brooklyn hallway she wrapped in blue, McCauley noted, “It’s a pass-through, so you don’t get overwhelmed by a bold pattern.” Ditto powder and dining rooms, like that of Perez, who said, “We only used that room when we were entertaining and it was too cold to be outside.”

It took three years, but Hardoin caved when the banana-leaf pattern became available in blue. “I thought it looked cool,” Hardoin said. He took the leap, knowing his sister Annette Moran (a wallpaper enthusiast) would be their DIY installer. “Now it’s the happiest room in the house,” he said.

Hangup: It’s dated

When Sarah and Nate Simon bought a historic home in Louisville, Ky., the walls sported oppressively dark patterns, including big, repeating medallions set in a grid. Sarah recalls thinking, “ ‘Not this! What’s the opposite of this?’ In my mind that would be paint.” Even for folks who haven’t pulled down awful examples, “the word ‘wallpaper’ can take them back to flowery patterns of the ’50s and ’60s that feel very dated,” said Toumbakaris.

Antidote: Modernity

“Wallpaper does not mean what it used to. It can be meandering, abstract, ombre or sisal,” said Simon’s interior designer, Bethany Adams. She suggested a sophisticated Chinoiserie that New York designer Miles Redd, in a collaboration with Schumacher, updated with an aqua colorway. Adams explains that like most Chinoiseries, this pattern doesn’t repeat for more than 8 feet. “You get a peripatetic design that keeps the eye engaged,” she said. “It’s looser.” Said Simon of her dining room today, “It’s a complete transformation, like art on my walls.”

Stereotypes of fusty florals and pitiless patterns fall away when designers present homeowners with contemporary picks. Still, sometimes the conversion takes time. One of Keasler’s clients, gun-shy after removing old paper, came back a year later, ready. “We chose a clean classic style that was graphic and minimal for a modern edge in the bathroom,” said the designer.