Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic Growth
Kanebridge News
Share Button

Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic Growth

Slower reported growth due to rising prices and concerns over interest rates, survey finds.

By Paul Hannon
Thu, May 26, 2022 11:22amGrey Clock 3 min

Growth in the U.S. and global economies slowed in May as high inflation and rising interest rates dented demand, business surveys said Tuesday.

Business activity at services businesses in the U.S., eurozone, U.K. and Australia all grew more slowly in May amid rising prices, according to S&P Global surveys. The firm’s purchasing managers index surveys also reported Tuesday that factories in major global economies face supply-chain disruptions related to Covid-19 surges and the Ukraine war, as well as higher fuel costs and rising wages.

Separate U.S. figures on Monday pointed to slower growth in a segment of the housing market. The Commerce Department said purchases of newly built single-family homes declined in April for the fourth straight month, dropping 16.6% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000. That marked the slowest pace of sales since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic.

New-home sales are a relatively narrow slice of all U.S. home sales, and sales figures can be volatile and subject to revisions. Still, the drop adds to signs the housing market is slowing amid record home prices and rising mortgage rates.

The global economy faces a series of obstacles this year, ranging from Covid-19 lockdowns in China, soaring energy and food prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a broadening drive by central banks to combat high inflation by increasing borrowing costs.

Some businesses are planning for a significant slowdown in growth or economic contraction.

Electronics retailer Best Buy Co. reported falling sales and profits for the latest quarter and said its results for the current fiscal year will be worse than it had previously predicted amid increased sales promotions and higher supply-chain expenses. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. swung to a quarterly loss, hurt by higher freight and product costs.

Retailers have posted mixed results for the first quarter. Last week, Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. posted weaker-than-expected earnings.

The surveys of purchasing managers at businesses in some of the world’s largest and richest economies indicate that activity continues to be supported by the easing of restrictions on the services sector as Western societies learn to live with Covid-19, with sectors such as tourism experiencing a strong recovery. Still, high inflation, geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates are clouding the outlook.

In the U.S., S&P Global said its composite purchasing managers index—which measures activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors—was 53.8 in May, down from 56.0 in April and the weakest rate of growth in four months. Separately, S&P Global said its index for the eurozone’s services and manufacturing sectors fell to 54.9 in May from 55.8 in April. A reading above 50.0 points to an expansion in activity, while a figure below that threshold points to a contraction.

While the surveys point to continued growth in the second quarter, they appear to have exaggerated the strength of the global economy during the first three months of the year.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, economic output in its 38 members was just 0.1% higher in the three months through March than it was in the final quarter of 2021, a sharp slowdown from the 1.2% growth recorded in the three months through December.

Economists at Capital Economics say that, based on their history, the PMIs pointed to growth in rich countries of around 0.5%.

“This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of Covid restrictions, all of which should fade from now on allowing the PMIs to give a more accurate steer,” wrote Ariane Curtis in a note to clients.

Facing the full brunt of the jump in energy prices triggered by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, European policy makers are preparing for tough economic times ahead.

“It’s now very clear that the economic toll of this war is world-wide,” said Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe after heading a meeting of eurozone treasury chiefs Monday. “High prices and disruption to food supplies are rippling across the world with very serious consequences for the most vulnerable in our societies.”

According to the surveys of purchasing managers, the U.K. has suffered the sharpest blow to activity in the wake of the invasion. S&P Global said its PMI for the country slumped to 51.8 in May from 58.2 in April to hit its lowest level in 15 months. Inflation hit a four-decade high in April as home energy prices surged.

“In the U.K., we are facing a very big negative impact on real incomes caused by the rise in prices of things we import, notably energy,” said Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, in a speech Monday. “We expect that to weigh heavily on demand.”

Citing the impact of the conflict on energy and food prices, the United Nations last week lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.1% from 4%, and its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% from 3.5%.

Business leaders share those worries. A survey conducted by the Conference Board and released Tuesday found chief executive officers at 56 of Europe’s leading companies had become much more gloomy about their prospects in the six months since the last poll. The measure of confidence fell to 37 from 63, with a reading below 50.0 indicating that more CEOs are pessimistic than optimistic about the outlook.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 24, 2022.



MOST POPULAR
11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

35 North Street Windsor

Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.

Related Stories
Lifestyle
The Uglification of Everything
By Peggy Noonan 26/04/2024
Money
Personal Wardrobe of the Iconic Late Fashion Designer Vivienne Westwood Goes up for Auction
By CASEY FARMER 25/04/2024
Money
Rediscovered John Lennon Guitar Heads to Auction, Expected to Set Records
By Eric Grossman 24/04/2024
The Uglification of Everything

Artistic culture has taken a repulsive turn. It speaks of a society that hates itself, and hates life.

By Peggy Noonan
Fri, Apr 26, 2024 5 min

I wish to protest the current ugliness. I see it as a continuing trend, “the uglification of everything.” It is coming out of our culture with picked-up speed, and from many media silos, and I don’t like it.

You remember the 1999 movie “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” from the Patricia Highsmith novel. It was fabulous—mysteries, murders, a sociopath scheming his way among high-class expats on the Italian Riviera. The laid-back glamour of Jude Law, the Grace Kelly-ness of Gwyneth Paltrow, who looks like a Vogue magazine cover decided to take a stroll through the streets of 1950s Venice, the truly brilliant acting of Matt Damon, who is so well-liked by audiences I’m not sure we notice anymore what a great actor he is. The director, Anthony Minghella, deliberately showed you pretty shiny things while taking you on a journey to a heart of darkness.

There’s a new version, a streaming series from Netflix, called “Ripley.” I turned to it eagerly and watched with puzzlement. It is unrelievedly ugly. Grimy, gloomy, grim. Tom Ripley is now charmless, a pale and watchful slug slithering through ancient rooms. He isn’t bright, eager, endearing, only predatory. No one would want to know him! Which makes the story make no sense. Again, Ripley is a sociopath, but few could tell because he seemed so sweet and easy. In the original movie, Philip Seymour Hoffman has an unforgettable turn as a jazz-loving, prep-schooled, in-crowd snob. In this version that character is mirthless, genderless, hidden. No one would want to know him either. Marge, the Paltrow role in the movie, is ponderous and plain, like a lost 1970s hippie, which undercuts a small part of the tragedy: Why is the lovely woman so in love with a careless idler who loves no one?

The ugliness seemed a deliberate artistic decision, as did the air of constant menace, as if we all know life is never nice.

I go to the No. 1 program on Netflix this week, “Baby Reindeer.” People speak highly of it. It’s about a stalker and is based on a true story, but she’s stalking a comic so this might be fun. Oh dear, no. It is again unrelievedly bleak. Life is low, plain and homely. No one is ever nice or kind; all human conversation is opaque and halting; work colleagues are cruel and loud. Everyone is emotionally incapable and dumb. No one laughs except for the morbidly obese stalker, who cackles madly. The only attractive person is the transgender girlfriend, who has a pretty smile and smiles a lot, but cries a lot too and is vengeful.

Good drama always makes you think. I thought: Do I want to continue living?

I go to the Daily Mail website, once my guilty pleasure. High jinks of the rich and famous, randy royals, fast cars and movie stars, models and rock stars caught in the drug bust. It was great! But it seems to have taken a turn and is more about crime, grime, human sadness and degradation—child abuse, mothers drowning their babies, “Man murders family, self.” It is less a portal into life’s mindless, undeserved beauty, than a testimony to its horrors.

I go to the new “Cabaret.” Who doesn’t love “Cabaret”? It is dark, witty, painful, glamorous. The music and lyrics have stood the test of time. The story’s backdrop: The soft decadence of Weimar is being replaced by the hard decadence of Nazism.

It is Kander and Ebb’s masterpiece, revived again and again. And this revival is hideous. It is ugly, bizarre, inartistic, fundamentally stupid. Also obscene but in a purposeless way, without meaning.

I had the distinct feeling the producers take their audience to be distracted dopamine addicts with fractured attention spans and no ability to follow a story. They also seemed to have no faith in the story itself, so they went with endless pyrotechnics. This is “Cabaret” for the empty-headed. Everyone screams. The songs are slowed, because you might need a moment to take it in. Almost everyone on stage is weirdly hunched, like a gargoyle, everyone overacts, and all of it is without art.

On the way in, staffers put stickers on the cameras of your phone, “to protect our intellectual property,” as one said.

It isn’t an easy job to make the widely admired Eddie Redmayne unappealing, but by God they did it. As he’s a producer I guess he did it, too. He takes the stage as the Emcee in a purple leather skirt with a small green cone on his head and appears further on as a clown with a machine gun and a weird goth devil. It is all so childish, so plonkingly empty.

Here is something sad about modern artists: They are held back by a lack of limits.

Bob Fosse, the director of the classic 1972 movie version, got to push against society’s limits and Broadway’s and Hollywood’s prohibitions. He pushed hard against what was pushing him, which caused friction; in the heat of that came art. Directors and writers now have nothing to push against because there are no rules or cultural prohibitions, so there’s no friction, everything is left cold, and the art turns in on itself and becomes merely weird.

Fosse famously loved women. No one loves women in this show. When we meet Sally Bowles, in the kind of dress a little girl might put on a doll, with heavy leather boots and harsh, garish makeup, the character doesn’t flirt, doesn’t seduce or charm. She barks and screams, angrily.

Really it is harrowing. At one point Mr. Redmayne dances with a toilet plunger, and a loaf of Italian bread is inserted and removed from his anal cavity. I mentioned this to my friend, who asked if I saw the dancer in the corner masturbating with a copy of what appeared to be “Mein Kampf.”

That’s what I call intellectual property!

In previous iterations the Kit Kat Club was a hypocrisy-free zone, a place of no boundaries, until the bad guys came and it wasn’t. I’m sure the director and producers met in the planning stage and used words like “breakthrough” and “a ‘Cabaret’ for today,” and “we don’t hide the coming cruelty.” But they do hide it by making everything, beginning to end, lifeless and grotesque. No innocence is traduced because no innocence exists.

How could a show be so frantic and outlandish and still be so tedious? It’s almost an achievement.

And for all that there is something smug about it, as if they’re looking down from some great, unearned height.

I left thinking, as I often do now on seeing something made ugly: This is what purgatory is going to be like. And then, no, this is what hell is going to be like—the cackling stalker, the pale sociopath, Eddie Redmayne dancing with a plunger.

Why does it all bother me?

Because even though it isn’t new, uglification is rising and spreading as an artistic attitude, and it can’t be good for us. Because it speaks of self-hatred, and a society that hates itself, and hates life, won’t last. Because it gives those who are young nothing to love and feel soft about. Because we need beauty to keep our morale up.

Because life isn’t merde, in spite of what our entertainment geniuses say.

 

MOST POPULAR

Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts

11 ACRES ROAD, KELLYVILLE, NSW

This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan

Related Stories
Lifestyle
Yes, There Is a Best Time of Year to Buy a New Car
By PERRI ORMONT BLUMBERG 23/10/2023
Money
Crash Parties, Escape Dull Chitchat and Make Powerful Friends: What Davos Elites Know
By CHIP CUTTER AND EMILY GLAZER 16/01/2024
Lifestyle
The OpenAI Board Member Who Clashed With Sam Altman Shares Her Side
By MEGHAN BOBROWSKY 08/12/2023
0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn to Shop