Inflation set to level out in 2023 – but more interest rate pain likely
Mortgage holders should brace themselves for another hip pocket hit when the RBA meets next month
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Australian mortgage holders should prepare themselves for more pain this year, with experts predicting another interest rate rise when the RBA meets next month.
The Big Four banks expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by at least another 25 basis points, which would mark the ninth consecutive rise since May last year, and the highest peak since 1990 at 3.35 percent.
The Reserve Bank has been raising the cash rate in a bid to combat rising inflation, which currently sits at 7.8 percent, the highest level since 1990. The Australian Bureau of Statistics points to more expensive domestic holidays, international travel and higher energy prices as some of the key drivers.
While some have expressed concern that further interest rate rises could be enough to push Australia into a recession, head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen, says there’s not too much cause for alarm just yet.
In the CoreLogic Property Pulse Report released this week, she points out that the RBA predicted inflation would peak at 8 percent this year and that the signs of a coming decline in the rate of inflation are already there.
“Underlying core inflation (the RBA’s preferred reading on inflation), which is measured by trimming excessively volatile components of CPI, actually fell in the quarter, from 1.9 percent in September to 1.7 percent,” she said in the report.
“Annual core inflation is still a long way from the 2 to 3 percent target range set by the RBA, at 6.9%. However, December marked the first fall in quarterly core inflation since March 2021, following eight consecutive interest rate rises from May 2022.”
The result, she said, is that inflation may have already peaked.
“Inflation across the combined OECD slowed to 1.8 percent in the September 2022 quarter, after peaking at 2.1 percent through June,” she said. “Forecasts from the OECD also suggest a fall in inflation through 2023 across most major economies, as global economic demand starts to slow.”
This includes Australia’s major trading partners such as China, Germany, Japan and the US.
In better news for those looking to renovate or build this year, the report also says that housing metrics indicate the rate of growth in new build costs is slowing.
“December CPI figures showed housing costs were still up a substantial 1.9% in the quarter, but this was down from a 3.2% lift in the three months to September,” Ms Owen said.
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Strong consumer spending and tight supply have driven retail to the top of commercial property, but signs of pressure are starting to emerge.
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Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
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