Inflation set to level out in 2023 – but more interest rate pain likely
Mortgage holders should brace themselves for another hip pocket hit when the RBA meets next month
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Australian mortgage holders should prepare themselves for more pain this year, with experts predicting another interest rate rise when the RBA meets next month.
The Big Four banks expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by at least another 25 basis points, which would mark the ninth consecutive rise since May last year, and the highest peak since 1990 at 3.35 percent.
The Reserve Bank has been raising the cash rate in a bid to combat rising inflation, which currently sits at 7.8 percent, the highest level since 1990. The Australian Bureau of Statistics points to more expensive domestic holidays, international travel and higher energy prices as some of the key drivers.
While some have expressed concern that further interest rate rises could be enough to push Australia into a recession, head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen, says there’s not too much cause for alarm just yet.
In the CoreLogic Property Pulse Report released this week, she points out that the RBA predicted inflation would peak at 8 percent this year and that the signs of a coming decline in the rate of inflation are already there.
“Underlying core inflation (the RBA’s preferred reading on inflation), which is measured by trimming excessively volatile components of CPI, actually fell in the quarter, from 1.9 percent in September to 1.7 percent,” she said in the report.
“Annual core inflation is still a long way from the 2 to 3 percent target range set by the RBA, at 6.9%. However, December marked the first fall in quarterly core inflation since March 2021, following eight consecutive interest rate rises from May 2022.”
The result, she said, is that inflation may have already peaked.
“Inflation across the combined OECD slowed to 1.8 percent in the September 2022 quarter, after peaking at 2.1 percent through June,” she said. “Forecasts from the OECD also suggest a fall in inflation through 2023 across most major economies, as global economic demand starts to slow.”
This includes Australia’s major trading partners such as China, Germany, Japan and the US.
In better news for those looking to renovate or build this year, the report also says that housing metrics indicate the rate of growth in new build costs is slowing.
“December CPI figures showed housing costs were still up a substantial 1.9% in the quarter, but this was down from a 3.2% lift in the three months to September,” Ms Owen said.
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Strong rental fundamentals and tight supply have driven more than $155 million in Sydney apartment block and residential investment sales over the past year.
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Sydney’s residential investment market has recorded $155 million in apartment block and townhouse sales over 2025, underscoring continued investor confidence in rental-led assets despite broader economic uncertainty.
The transactions were completed by Knight Frank’s Investment Sales agents James Masselos and Adam Droubi, who negotiated 19 sales across Sydney during the year.
Residential investments accounted for 75 per cent of their total sales activity, supported by more than 4,200 active purchaser enquiries.
Co-living deal sets national benchmark
Among the standout transactions was the off-market sale of 142 Carillon Avenue in Newtown, a 37-studio co-living apartment block located close to the University of Sydney and Royal Prince Alfred Hospital.
The property sold for $21.5 million, setting a new benchmark for the living sectors market nationally.
The deal achieved approximately $581,000 per bedroom, believed to be one of the highest per-bedroom results recorded for a co-living asset in Australia.
Inner-city assets trade in one line
Other notable sales included a group of 12 townhouses at 108 Illawarra Road in Marrickville, sold in one line for $14 million, and a block of 20 studio apartments at 171 Rowntree Street in Birchgrove, which changed hands for $6.7 million.
Both transactions reflected strong buyer competition for well-located residential assets with established income streams.
Supply constraints underpin momentum
Mr Masselos said Sydney’s apartment block market continued to benefit from tight supply and strong rental conditions.
“Apartment blocks and broader residential investments remain a robust asset class, underpinned by strong rental growth, record low vacancy levels and scarcity of stock,” he said.
He added that more than $25 million worth of residential investment opportunities are expected to come to market in 2026, with buyer enquiry remaining elevated.
Mr Droubi said competitive sales campaigns had become a feature of the market as investors sought secure income and long-term value.
“Supply constraints and ongoing population growth underpin market strength,” he said. “New approvals and completions lag demand, keeping stock tight and boosting both rents and prices.”
Vacancy rates keep pressure on rents
According to Knight Frank, rental demand across Sydney remains intense, with vacancy rates well below typical “healthy” levels.
Many middle and outer-ring suburbs are recording vacancies of around 1.5 per cent or lower, maintaining upward pressure on rents and reinforcing the appeal of residential investment assets.
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