Japan’s Economy Shows Signs of Life as Spending Revives

TOKYO—The Japanese economy returned to growth in the April-June quarter thanks to a recovery in spending by households and companies.

Japan’s gross domestic product expanded 0.8% in the three months to June from the previous quarter, preliminary government data showed Thursday. That compared with economists’ forecast for 0.6% growth in a poll by data provider Quick. The economy contracted 0.6% in the January-March quarter.

The figures come after the Bank of Japan opted to raise interest rates last month and signaled potential for further increases, stoking concern among some that the economy wasn’t yet strong enough to stomach the move, as a premature increase could dial back inflation too far and lead to a slowdown.

The economy grew 3.1% on an annualized basis, which reflects what would happen if the second-quarter pace continued for a full year.

Private consumption rose 1% from the previous quarter, snapping four consecutive quarters of declines. Car sales recovered, shrugging off the impact of production suspensions that had crimped output earlier in the year.

The rising cost of living and a struggling economy have led to a decline in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s voter support. Kishida had introduced measures to protect households from inflation and revive consumption, including tax cuts and energy subsidies. But they didn’t help his approval ratings recover much, and Kishida said Wednesday that he won’t seek to stay in office.

Economists expect consumption to recover further in the July-September period thanks to the effects of the income and residential tax cuts. Real wages adjusted for inflation also turned positive in June for the first time in more than two years.

Thursday’s data showed capital expenditures also rose 0.9% on the back of solid corporate earnings.

One print showing some improvement may not be enough to convince analysts that the economy is getting back on track, however.

It will be difficult to say that the economy has emerged from its seesawing phase, NLI Research Institute economist Taro Saito said before Thursday’s data release. In order to confirm the recovery of the Japanese economy, it will be necessary to examine developments in the July-September quarter and thereafter, he said.

Economists at Moody’s Analytics meanwhile said in a recent note that even a robust increase in Thursday’s data would follow a series of lackluster gross domestic product reports that have captured falling output for the better part of a year.

The boom in casual footware ushered in by the pandemic has ended, a potential problem for companies such as Adidas that benefited from the shift to less formal clothing, Bank of America says.

The casual footwear business has been on the ropes since mid-2023 as people began returning to office.

Analyst Thierry Cota wrote that while most downcycles have lasted one to two years over the past two decades or so, the current one is different.

It “shows no sign of abating” and there is “no turning point in sight,” he said.

Adidas and Nike alone account for almost 60% of revenue in the casual footwear industry, Cota estimated, so the sector’s slower growth could be especially painful for them as opposed to brands that have a stronger performance-shoe segment. Adidas may just have it worse than Nike.

Cota downgraded Adidas stock to Underperform from Buy on Tuesday and slashed his target for the stock price to €160 (about $187) from €213. He doesn’t have a rating for Nike stock.

Shares of Adidas listed on the German stock exchange fell 4.5% Tuesday to €162.25. Nike stock was down 1.2%.

Adidas didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cota sees trouble for Adidas both in the short and long term.

Adidas’ lifestyle segment, which includes the Gazelles and Sambas brands, has been one of the company’s fastest-growing business, but there are signs growth is waning.

Lifestyle sales increased at a 10% annual pace in Adidas’ third quarter, down from 13% in the second quarter.

The analyst now predicts Adidas’ organic sales will grow by a 5% annual rate starting in 2027, down from his prior forecast of 7.5%.

The slower revenue growth will likewise weigh on profitability, Cota said, predicting that margins on earnings before interest and taxes will decline back toward the company’s long-term average after several quarters of outperforming. That could result in a cut to earnings per share.

Adidas stock had a rough 2025. Shares shed 33% in the past 12 months, weighed down by investor concerns over how tariffs, slowing demand, and increased competition would affect revenue growth.

Nike stock fell 9% throughout the period, reflecting both the company’s struggles with demand and optimism over a turnaround plan CEO Elliott Hill rolled out in late 2024.

Investors’ confidence has faded following Nike’s December earnings report, which suggested that a sustained recovery is still several quarters away. Just how many remains anyone’s guess.

But if Adidas’ challenges continue, as Cota believes they will, it could open up some space for Nike to claw back any market share it lost to its rival.

Investors should keep in mind, however, that the field has grown increasingly crowded in the past five years. Upstarts such as On Holding and Hoka also present a formidable challenge to the sector’s legacy brands.

Shares of On and Deckers Outdoor , Hoka’s parent company, fell 11% and 48%, respectively, in 2025, but analysts are upbeat about both companies’ fundamentals as the new year begins.

The battle of the sneakers is just getting started.

Japan’s Economy Shows Signs of Life as Spending Revives

Gross domestic product expanded 0.8% in the three months to June from the previous quarter, preliminary government data showed

The pandemic-fuelled love affair with casual footwear is fading, with Bank of America warning the downturn shows no sign of easing.