Knowing when to stay in your home – and when to go
If living your best life is on your 2023 to-do list, it might be time to consider a change of address
If living your best life is on your 2023 to-do list, it might be time to consider a change of address
You’ve been successfully climbing the property ladder, leapfrogging towards the prized dream home. But lifestyle or family circumstances can change and a volatile market can make choosing between renovating or moving unclear. Do you take the renovation plunge? Or just avoid potential pitfalls and for peace of mind – and your hip pocket – simply seek that ready-to-go turnkey dream house instead?
Carl Wilson from Home Estate Agents has been a Sydney realtor for 35 years. He’s well acquainted with this dilemma.
“They’re at a crossroads,” he says. “Houses are around but they’re price prohibitive. Any reasonable free-standing house in Sydney’s east is $3m upwards – even semis are attracting $2.5-3m.”
Despite a recent downturn, he says there has been price growth everywhere from Brisbane and Melbourne to Sydney.
“There was a completely rundown Coogee semi that sold in 2020 for $3.75m, now on the market after reno for $5.5m – but then, they’ve spent $2m on it.”
So, is the ‘renovate or move up’ conundrum more about growing family needs or profit potential? Wilson agrees that families requiring more space is often the overriding motivation.
COVID, living and material cost rises have shifted peoples’ expectations even more.
“All of those are a determining factor and they are deterrents to renovating,” he says. “Plus, there’s the DA process, compliance, build-time blowouts, unforeseen added cost – it’s two years of pain.”
It might seen reasonable for investors, Wilson says, but it’s not so much fun if you’re living in your family home as it’s renovated.
“It can destroy marriages,” he says. “A turnkey might be $1million up on where they are but at least there’s certainty.”
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Building cost increases have also taken their toll.
“Five years ago you could renovate a semi for $300,000 to $400,000 but it’s now $1million and potentially $2 million,” he says. “There’s also the issue of pricing by postcode. The overcharging of clients in affluent areas is a reality.
“Alternatively, longtime city residents may sell out and buy up or down the coast. But now, NSW coastal houses worth $400,000 a decade ago can now be $1.5m.
“Ready-to-go residences are becoming a necessity, but there’s never enough around.”
To further muddy the waters, chances are it’s probably going to get worse. The pandemic has given people that didn’t previously have the money more capital, says Wilson. They accessed superaunnuation and halted spending on travel, new cars or entertainment. Plus, lockdowns and families all stuck at home together has given people pause.
“When COVID hit, some moved out of units into houses to alleviate living pressures,” he says. “Now, they’re moving back into units but craving the extra space.”
Builder Gregg Jowett from iRenov8 has been in the industry for 33 years, building from the ground up, managing reality TV builds. He now focuses primarily on bespoke renovations mainly in Sydney’s east and inner west.
“My typical clients are married parents of younger children, remortgaging because they’ve invested so much equity in their property,” he says. “My builds are a combination of creating more space, as well as purely aesthetic work. I do three to four jobs a year, typically six to eight months each.
He says most of his clients are on their second property, renovating and staying put for a while.
“There’s two types,” Wilson says. “One has renovated before and they tend to trust us completely. But to those new to renos, it’s never as streamlined as they think. They watch lifestyle TV shows and think they can do a lot themselves.”
He says COVID gave people pause to consider their options.
“It’s about finding the right builder/architect combo,” he says. “Some people don’t spend money on decent architectural drawings, but they’ve still got to get through council and the ambiguity makes it hard for builders.”
Hector Abbott is a commercial property developer living in his third property since starting a family. He upgraded from a semi to a four-bedroom, freestanding home in Coogee eight years ago, a 1920s cottage that had been fully-renovated by an owner/builder. “He lived in it for a decade before we found it,” he says. “We needed more space to accommodate our teenage daughters. We searched for two years, coming across several houses that ticked boxes but not enough. When you have to donate a six-figure sum to stamp duty, it’s not a decision made lightly.”
The thought of renovating as opposed to buying a turnkey held no appeal at all.
“I work from home,” he says. “I need an office and being disrupted whilst in a renovation, or renting another property while overseeing a build, is too much to contemplate.
“That said, four years ago we did an exterior renovation. We repainted the house, landscaped and rebuilt a pergola.”
The endgame for Abbott was always about a long-term abode.
“I’ve no desire to own a $25m mansion,” he says. “The house is centrally located. The kids have grown up here and we have no desire to downsize. Investment return was never an issue, even though this area is bulletproof. Why on earth leave?”
Can’t decide whether to move or improve? Ask yourself these questions
Do you love where you live? If the kids are in school or there’s a great sense of community, staying where you are and renovating may offer a better lifestyle for everyone
What are house prices doing? If property prices in your area have risen significantly and you’re looking to downsize, or you’re after a seachange, you could sell up and unlock some of the equity in your property
Is your place unlivable? This means different things to different people – it may be too small, too old or too rundown. If you’re thinking of renovating, consider the rising costs of building materials and access to trades
Will selling and buying cost you more? ‘Dead money’ like stamp duty could be ploughed into a renovation. Check what costs you may be up for before making a final decision
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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
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