The 'single biggest factor' driving the rise in first homebuyer activity for Australians

The number of new loans being issued to the most budget-conscious cohort of buyers in the property market – first-time purchasers – has increased by 20 percent over the past 12 months, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Almost 10,400 new loans were written for first home buyers in November, 31 percent of them in Victoria, 23 percent in New South Wales and 19 percent in Queensland.

Despite the common affordability challenges faced by younger Australians, lending to first homebuyers is currently tracking at 29.4 percent of all new owner-occupier finance, which is above the 10-year average of 24.3percent. The value of all owner-occupier loans rose by 0.5 percent in November to $17.86 billion, up 10.6 percent over the past 12 months. The value of investor loans rose by 1.9 percent to $9.72 billion, which is 18 percent higher than a year ago. But the boost to first homebuyer finance is much bigger, up 2.8 percent in November to $5.25 billion, but more significantly, it’s up 25.8 percent compared to a year ago.

The ABS points out that a large component of November’s increase in first home buyer finance was due to a surge in Queensland. This coincides with a doubling of the state’s First Home Owner Grant to $30,000 for eligible first home buyers purchasing or building a new home. The grant is the equal highest state grant available to young buyers and triple the size of grants available in New South Wales and Victoria.

There are two key factors underpinning rising first home buyer activity, despite today’s high interest rates. The first and most significant is the growing impact of the Bank of Mum and Dad, with parents typically getting involved at the start of the process. They are either gifting cash to help fund the deposit, offering rent-free accommodation to their children throughout their 20s so they can save a deposit themselves, or going guarantor on their loans.

Research published last year by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) found parental help has “become one of the key enablers of the transition into home ownership”. According to AHURI’s findings: “Parental transfers, both direct and in-kind, are increasingly assisting individuals make a more rapid transition into home ownership. Analysis identified that in-kind transfers in the form of co-residence with parents (and not renting) lifts the likelihood of transitioning into home ownership by 40 percent.”

AHURI says first homebuyers’ ability to save a deposit using their earnings alone had diminished over time as property values – and thus the required deposit amounts – have risen. According to PEXA data, buyers in NSW needed a median deposit of just below $120,000 to buy a home in FY23, up 3.9 percent on FY22. In Victoria, the median deposit was $84,723, down 0.5 percent, and in Queensland it was $78,143, up 8.5 percent.

AHURI said family support “was found to be the single biggest factor in supporting being able to buy a home”. In Australia’s most expensive market, Sydney, where the median house price is currently $1.4 million and the median apartment value is above $830,000, according to the latest CoreLogic figures, AHURI says family support “was an essential component of being able to buy a home in all cases …”.

The second factor boosting first home buying today is higher uptake of the Federal Government’s expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which enables eligible buyers to qualify for a loan with just a 5 percent deposit and a government guarantee on the rest, saving them thousands of dollars in mortgage insurance.

Housing Australia says one in three of all first home buyers in FY23 used the scheme, up from one in seven in FY22. This reflects the expansion of the scheme, with more places funded by the Albanese Government and broader eligibility criteria enabling more people to participate.

Higher interest rates have also encouraged more participation, says Housing Australia’s head of research, data and analytics, Hugh Hartigan.

“The broader macroeconomic environment with rapidly rising interest rates has substantially decreased mortgage serviceability with flow-on effects for affordability and this has led to first home buyers relying more heavily (proportionally) on the scheme than in previous years,” Mr Hartigan said.

There has been a substantial increase in the number of Australians earning high incomes who are renting their homes instead of owning them, and this may be another element contributing to higher market demand and continually rising rents, according to new research.

The portion of households with an annual income of $140,000 per year (in 2021 dollars), went from 8 percent of the private rental market in 1996 to 24 percent in 2021, according to research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The AHURI study highlights that longer-term declines in the rate of home ownership in Australia are likely the cause of this trend.

The biggest challenge this creates is the flow-on effect on lower-income households because they may face stronger competition for a limited supply of rental stock, and they also have less capacity to cope with rising rents that look likely to keep going up due to the entrenched undersupply.

The 2024 ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report notes that weekly rents have been rising strongly since the pandemic and are currently re-accelerating. “Nationally, annual rent growth has lifted from a recent low of 8.1 percent year-on-year in October 2023, to 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2024,” according to the report. “The re-acceleration was particularly evident in house rents, where annual growth bottomed out at 6.8 percent in the year to September, and rose to 8.4 percent in the year to March 2024.”

Rents are also rising in markets that have experienced recent declines. “In Hobart, rent values saw a downturn of -6 percent between March and October 2023. Since bottoming out in October, rents have now moved 5 percent higher to the end of March, and are just 1 percent off the record highs in March 2023. The Canberra rental market was the only other capital city to see a decline in rents in recent years, where rent values fell -3.8 percent between June 2022 and September 2023. Since then, Canberra rents have risen 3.5 percent, and are 1 percent from the record high.”

The Productivity Commission’s review of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement points out that high-income earners also have more capacity to relocate to cheaper markets when rents rise, which creates more competition for lower-income households competing for homes in those same areas.

ANZ CoreLogic notes that rents in lower-cost markets have risen the most in recent years, so much so that the portion of earnings that lower-income households have to dedicate to rent has reached a record high 54.3 percent. For middle-income households, it’s 32.2 percent and for high-income households, it’s just 22.9 percent. ‘Housing stress’ has long been defined as requiring more than 30 percent of income to put a roof over your head.

While some high-income households may aspire to own their own homes, rising property values have made that a difficult and long process given the years it takes to save a deposit. ANZ CoreLogic data shows it now takes a median 10.1 years in the capital cities and 9.9 years in regional areas to save a 20 percent deposit to buy a property.

It also takes 48.3 percent of income in the cities and 47.1 percent in the regions to cover mortgage repayments at today’s home loan interest rates, which is far greater than the portion of income required to service rents at a median 30.4 percent in cities and 33.3 percent in the regions.

The ‘single biggest factor’ driving the rise in first homebuyer activity for Australians

The number of loans issued to first home buyers has risen by 20 percent over the past 12 months

This may be contributing to continually rising weekly rents