The 'single biggest factor' driving the rise in first homebuyer activity for Australians

The number of new loans being issued to the most budget-conscious cohort of buyers in the property market – first-time purchasers – has increased by 20 percent over the past 12 months, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Almost 10,400 new loans were written for first home buyers in November, 31 percent of them in Victoria, 23 percent in New South Wales and 19 percent in Queensland.

Despite the common affordability challenges faced by younger Australians, lending to first homebuyers is currently tracking at 29.4 percent of all new owner-occupier finance, which is above the 10-year average of 24.3percent. The value of all owner-occupier loans rose by 0.5 percent in November to $17.86 billion, up 10.6 percent over the past 12 months. The value of investor loans rose by 1.9 percent to $9.72 billion, which is 18 percent higher than a year ago. But the boost to first homebuyer finance is much bigger, up 2.8 percent in November to $5.25 billion, but more significantly, it’s up 25.8 percent compared to a year ago.

The ABS points out that a large component of November’s increase in first home buyer finance was due to a surge in Queensland. This coincides with a doubling of the state’s First Home Owner Grant to $30,000 for eligible first home buyers purchasing or building a new home. The grant is the equal highest state grant available to young buyers and triple the size of grants available in New South Wales and Victoria.

There are two key factors underpinning rising first home buyer activity, despite today’s high interest rates. The first and most significant is the growing impact of the Bank of Mum and Dad, with parents typically getting involved at the start of the process. They are either gifting cash to help fund the deposit, offering rent-free accommodation to their children throughout their 20s so they can save a deposit themselves, or going guarantor on their loans.

Research published last year by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) found parental help has “become one of the key enablers of the transition into home ownership”. According to AHURI’s findings: “Parental transfers, both direct and in-kind, are increasingly assisting individuals make a more rapid transition into home ownership. Analysis identified that in-kind transfers in the form of co-residence with parents (and not renting) lifts the likelihood of transitioning into home ownership by 40 percent.”

AHURI says first homebuyers’ ability to save a deposit using their earnings alone had diminished over time as property values – and thus the required deposit amounts – have risen. According to PEXA data, buyers in NSW needed a median deposit of just below $120,000 to buy a home in FY23, up 3.9 percent on FY22. In Victoria, the median deposit was $84,723, down 0.5 percent, and in Queensland it was $78,143, up 8.5 percent.

AHURI said family support “was found to be the single biggest factor in supporting being able to buy a home”. In Australia’s most expensive market, Sydney, where the median house price is currently $1.4 million and the median apartment value is above $830,000, according to the latest CoreLogic figures, AHURI says family support “was an essential component of being able to buy a home in all cases …”.

The second factor boosting first home buying today is higher uptake of the Federal Government’s expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which enables eligible buyers to qualify for a loan with just a 5 percent deposit and a government guarantee on the rest, saving them thousands of dollars in mortgage insurance.

Housing Australia says one in three of all first home buyers in FY23 used the scheme, up from one in seven in FY22. This reflects the expansion of the scheme, with more places funded by the Albanese Government and broader eligibility criteria enabling more people to participate.

Higher interest rates have also encouraged more participation, says Housing Australia’s head of research, data and analytics, Hugh Hartigan.

“The broader macroeconomic environment with rapidly rising interest rates has substantially decreased mortgage serviceability with flow-on effects for affordability and this has led to first home buyers relying more heavily (proportionally) on the scheme than in previous years,” Mr Hartigan said.

The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.

Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”

Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.

The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.

But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.

Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.

“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”

Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.

Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”

Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.

Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.

The ‘single biggest factor’ driving the rise in first homebuyer activity for Australians

The number of loans issued to first home buyers has risen by 20 percent over the past 12 months