The Sydney Neighbourhoods At The Forefront Of The Property Downturn
As interest rates rise some areas are feeling the pinch more than others.
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The upper end of Sydney’s property market is leading the downturn in home values according to the latest figures from CoreLogic.
Parts of the NSW capital’s inner west, Northern Beaches, eastern suburbs and inner-city recorded the largest decline in values over the past three months, as rising rates put downward pressure on pricing and reduce buyer borrowing power.
The rising cash rate has accelerated value falls in Sydney according to CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless. This was most acutely felt in the top end of the market, with the upper quartile down 4.3% while values for the bottom quartile fell only 0.5%.
Sydney property values were down by 2.8% across the board in the quarter and aer expected to fall further. The NAB downgraded its forecast last week, expecting prices to decline 8.8% this year and 13.4% in 2023. The Commonwealth Bank has forecast a decline of 18% by the end of 2023.
According to the latest CoreLogic figures, the Leichhardt SA3 region (covering suburbs such as Rozelle, Balmain and Birchgrove too), recorded the largest decline in house values, down 7.3% in three months.
Leichhardt’s area was followed by the Pittwater (-7.2%) and Warringah (-6.5%) regions, while the inner city and Strathfield, Ashfield, and Burwood regions also had values drop by more than 6%.
For units, it was slightly different where the largest falls were in the North Sydney and Mosman region — down 5.8%. The Manly and eastern suburbs regions — including the likes of Vaucluse, Bellevue Hill and Bondi — all recorded drops of more than 5%.
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Ray White’s chief economist outlines her predictions for housing market trends in 2024
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Ray White’s chief economist, Nerida Conisbee says property price growth will continue next year and mortgage holders will need to “survive until 2025” amid expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
Ms Conisbee said strong population growth and a housing supply shortage combatted the impact of rising interest rates in 2023, leading to unusually strong price growth during a rate hiking cycle. The latest CoreLogic data shows home values have increased by more than 10 percent in the year to date in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Among the regional markets, price growth has been strongest in regional South Australia with 8.6 percent growth and regional Queensland at 6.9 percent growth.
“As interest rates head close to peak, it is expected that price growth will continue. At this point, housing supply remains extremely low and many people that would be new home buyers are being pushed into the established market,” Ms Conisbee said. “Big jumps in rents are pushing more first home buyers into the market and population growth is continuing to be strong.”
Ms Conisbee said interest rates will be higher for longer due to sticky inflation. “… we are unlikely to see a rate cut until late 2024 or early 2025. This means mortgage holders need to survive until 2025, paying far more on their home loans than they did two years ago.”
Buyers in coastal areas currently have a window of opportunity to take advantage of softer prices, Ms Conisbee said. “Look out for beach house bargains over summer but you need to move quick. In many beachside holiday destinations, we saw a sharp rise in properties for sale and a corresponding fall in prices. This was driven by many pandemic driven holiday home purchases coming back on to the market.”
3 key housing market trends for 2024
Here are three of Ms Conisbee’s predictions for the key housing market trends of 2024.
Luxury apartment market to soar
Ms Conisbee said the types of apartments being built have changed dramatically amid more people choosing to live in apartments longer-term and Australia’s ageing population downsizing. “Demand is increasing for much larger, higher quality, more expensive developments. This has resulted in the most expensive apartments in Australia seeing price increases more than double those of an average priced apartment. This year, fewer apartments being built, growing population and a desire to live in some of Australia’s most sought-after inner urban areas will lead to a boom in luxury apartment demand.”
Homes to become even greener
The rising costs of energy and the health impacts of heat are two new factors driving interest in green homes, Ms Conisbee said. “Having a greener home utilising solar and batteries makes it cheaper to run air conditioning, heaters and pool pumps. We are heading into a particularly hot summer and having homes that are difficult to cool down makes them far more dangerous for the elderly and very young.”
More people living alone
For some time now, long-term social changes such as delayed marriage and an ageing population have led to more people living alone. However, Ms Conisbee points out that the pandemic also showed that many people prefer to live alone for lifestyle reasons. “Shorter term, the pandemic has shown that given the chance, many people prefer to live alone with a record increase in single-person households during the time. This trend may influence housing preferences, with a potential rise in demand for smaller dwellings and properties catering to individuals rather than traditional family units.”
Consumers are going to gravitate toward applications powered by the buzzy new technology, analyst Michael Wolf predicts
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
