The worldwide trend Australia does not want to be following
Governments around the world are offering incentives to reverse a downward spiral that could threaten economic growth
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The Australian birth rate is at a record low, new data has shown.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have revealed there were 286,998 births registered around the country last year, or 1.5 babies per woman.
Birth rates in Australia have been in a slow decline since the 1990s, down from 1.86 births per woman in 1993. Declining fertility rates among girls and women aged 15 to 19 years was most stark, down two thirds, while for women aged 40 to 44 years, the rate had almost doubled.
“The long-term decline in fertility of younger mums as well as the continued increase in fertility of older mums reflects a shift towards later childbearing,” said Beidar Cho, ABS head of demography statistics. “Together, this has resulted in a rise in median age of mothers to 31.9 years, and a fall in Australia’s total fertility rate.”
The fall in the Australian birth rate is in keeping with worldwide trends, with the United States also seeing fertility rates hit a 32-year low. The Lancet reported earlier this year that, based on current trends, by 2100 more than 97 percent of the world’s countries and territories “will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time”.
On a global scale, the Lancet reported that the total fertility rate had “more than halved over the past 70 years” from about five children per female in the 1950s to 2.2 children in 2021. In countries such as South Korea and Serbia, the rate is already less than 1.1 child for each female.
Governments around the world have tried to incentivise would-be parents, offering money, increased access to childcare and better paid maternity leave.
Experts have said without additional immigration, lower birth rates and an ageing population in Australia could put further pressure on young people, threaten economic growth and create economic uncertainty. However, a study released earlier this year by the University of Canberra showed the cost of raising a child to adulthood was between $474,000 and $1,097,000.
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The inflation rate ran at an annual pace of 2.2% in the quarter compared with a rise of 3.3% in the second quarter
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SYDNEY—New Zealand’s inflation rate returned to within the central bank’s target band for the first time since early 2021 in the third quarter, opening a path to more supersized interest-rate cuts in coming months.
The inflation rate ran at an annual pace of 2.2% in the quarter, near the midpoint of the desired 1% to 3% target band, with some economists warning that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand must continue lowering the official cash rate at speed as a neutral policy rate is still well off in the distance.
The annual increase in inflation compares with a rise of 3.3% in the second quarter, StatsNZ said Wednesday. Inflation rose by 0.6% in quarterly terms.
The inflation data justifies the 75 basis points of cuts announced so far since August, with the RBNZ stepping up the pace of lowering the official cash rate last week by joining the Federal Reserve in slashing by 50 basis points.
Economists warn that there is a risk that inflation will undershoot the target band in coming quarters, especially if the RBNZ backs away from more significant cuts.
The official cash rate has so far fallen to 4.75% from 5.50%, with a neutral policy rate likely closer to 3.00%, according to economists.
New Zealand’s farm-rich economy has been in and out of recession for years as the RBNZ proved to be one of the more aggressive central banks globally when combating the inflation surge that emerged after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Economic activity remains flat and in need of resuscitation, especially with growth in China, its main trading partner, in a slowdown, economists said.
Higher rents were the biggest contributor to the annual inflation rate, up 4.5%. Almost a fifth of the annual increase in the consumer-price index was due to rent prices.
Prices for local authority rates and payments increased 12.2% in the 12 months to the third quarter, StatsNZ said. Prices for cigarettes and tobacco also rose sharply in line with an annual excise-tax increase.
Still, lower prices for gasoline and vegetables helped to offset rising prices, StatsNZ added.
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