Why the next three years could be the best time to invest in property
Stable rates, tight supply and improving confidence are creating a rare three-year window for strategic property investment.
4 min
After the RBA failed to cut interest rates earlier this month, many Australians are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for “the right time” to buy.
But as every experienced investor knows, there’s rarely a perfect moment. Only windows where fundamentals align.
The next three years look to be one of those windows. This period represents a great opportunity to step into the market strategically, supported by strong long-term tailwinds and a more stable lending environment.
Supply is tight and that’s not changing anytime soon
Australia’s housing shortage has become structural.
The government’s target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029 is already slipping out of reach, with completions tracking closer to 160,000 per year.
Construction costs, planning bottlenecks, and labour shortages continue to restrict new supply, while population growth and immigration remain high.
Australian market snapshot
Perth (WA)
4,251 listings (week ending 1 Jun 2025)
2,832 listings (Oct 2025) ↓ 40 % YoY; sales ↓ 3.1 %; median days on market ≈ 12
Significant supply contraction
Despite small weekly lifts, total stock remains 40 % below 2024. Homes under the median are selling within days.
Brisbane (QLD)
Median value $945 k; monthly growth 1.5 %
Median value $992,864 (+1.8 % MoM, +10.8 % YoY); unit listings 45 % below 5-yr avg
Tight supply + rising prices
Affordable pockets < $1 m remain highly competitive. Demand concentrated around family suburbs.
Melbourne (VIC)
Listings below 5-yr avg; mild buyer hesitancy
Supply still below 5-yr avg; tight in inner east, north & inner west
Selective undersupply
Now Australia’s most affordable capital on income-to-debt ratio. Tight supply in established suburbs positions it for rebound.
Across Perth, Brisbane and Melbourne, in particular, demand continues to outstrip supply, a formula for steady, sustainable growth rather than speculation.
In Perth, listings have fallen roughly 40% year-on-year, and properties are turning over in just 12 days on average, the fastest market in the country.
For Brisbane, supply remains well below normal, particularly under $1 million, where investors and first-home buyers overlap.
And in Melbourne, affordability is now the best in the country, with tight supply in key inner corridors setting up for a cyclical recovery as rates stabilise.
Confidence is returning
After two years of turbulence, the rate environment has finally steadied. Most lenders now sit between 5.3% and 5.6%, roughly 1% lower than a year ago.
On an average $800,000 loan, that’s about $8,000 in annual savings, a meaningful improvement to serviceability and household cash flow.
While no one expects large cuts in the short term, the broader shift will breed confidence.
Borrowers who were cautious in 2023–24 are re-entering the market with renewed clarity around repayments and borrowing power.
This is an ideal time to re-engage clients who paused during the rate-rise cycle. With the right structuring, many can now step forward without over-stretching.
Demand, supply & location
In a market where many investors fixate on short-term yields, it’s critical to bring clients back to fundamentals.
The best opportunities over the next three years will be in locations with strong demand drivers, limited supply, and genuine affordability.
Strong demand drivers
Focus on markets backed by tangible fundamentals, infrastructure investment, job growth, and migration inflows. Areas with improving economies and active employment hubs consistently attract owner-occupiers, which supports long-term value.
Limited incoming supply + affordability
When affordability and low supply align, upward price pressure follows. Australia is currently building only around 160,000 new dwellings per year, well below the 240,000 needed to meet national targets. Markets with low construction pipelines and accessible entry prices are positioned for sustained growth.
Location and value-creation potential
Established, owner-occupied suburbs tend to outperform because they’re insulated from large-scale supply shocks.
Look for houses or properties with strong land content, ideally a 50 % or higher land-to-asset ratio and those that allow for renovations, granny-flat additions, or subdivisions over time.
While every market will move through its own cycle, the next three years should continue to deliver solid opportunities across Australia, particularly in locations where supply is tight, economies are strong, and demand is anchored by real fundamentals.
The market is resetting its risk profile
Macquarie Bank’s recent decision to halt lending to new property purchases in trust structures could also change parts of the investor market.
While it may slow activity in investment-heavy markets, it’s unlikely to affect demand in locations where most of the activity is driven by home buyers.
These areas are largely found within the major capital cities, and even in some of the smaller capitals with growing owner-occupier bases.
When assessing these markets, it’s important to look at the local economy, the industries that support employment, infrastructure investment, and migration.
Even indicators like Gross State Product (GSP) can provide valuable insight into the health of the local market and its resilience to policy changes.
This shift reinforces the importance of sticking to fundamentals such as strong economies, real demand, and sustainable affordability, not investor-driven locations.
Thinking long-term
The next three years won’t be about chasing quick gains.
They’ll be about steady, compounding growth driven by constrained supply, stable rates, and solid demand. Property wealth isn’t about speculation, it’s about structure, patience, and the discipline of buying the right asset and holding it through cycles.
If you’re considering entering the market, now is the time to act. Stable rates, limited supply, and improving affordability create a strong foundation for the next property cycle.
Abdullah Nouh is the Founder and Director of Mecca Property Group, one of Australia’s leading buyers’ agencies specialising in high-growth residential and commercial investments.
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Australia’s housing market was flat in May as falling values in Sydney and Melbourne offset continued growth in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.
3 min
Australia’s housing market has lost momentum, with Cotality’s latest Home Value Index revealing national dwelling values were flat in May as affordability constraints, higher borrowing costs and weakening buyer sentiment continue to weigh on demand.
The national result masks increasingly divergent conditions across the country.
Sydney and Melbourne led the decline, with dwelling values falling 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively over the month.
Sydney values are now 2.1 per cent below their November 2025 peak, while Melbourne values sit 3.2 per cent below their March 2022 high.
In contrast, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continued to record growth, although even the stronger-performing markets are beginning to show signs of slowing.
Perth again led the capitals, recording monthly growth of 1.5 per cent and annual growth of 25.8 per cent. Brisbane values increased 0.9 per cent in May and are now 19.1 per cent higher than a year ago, while Adelaide recorded a 0.5 per cent monthly rise and annua growth of 12.3 per cent.
Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said Australia’s housing market continues to operate at vastly different speeds depending on location.
“We are continuing to see multi-speed conditions across Australia’s housing sector, with Perth and Melbourne at opposite ends of the spectrum,” Lawless said.
“The past five years have seen these cities diverge sharply, with Perth values up a stunning 91.4 per cent while Melbourne home values are only 3.3 per cent higher since May 2021.”
Lawless said while the pace of value growth remains highly varied between cities, a common trend is emerging.
“While the speed of value change remains very different from city to city, the direction is becoming more consistent, with most markets losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify.”
The slowdown is becoming increasingly evident in transaction activity.
National home sales over the past three months were estimated to be 2.2 per cent lower than a year ago and 4.1 per cent below the five-year average.
Sydney and Melbourne recorded the sharpest declines in sales activity, down 17.0 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively compared to the same period last year.
Lawless said higher listing volumes are shifting negotiating power back towards buyers.
“These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers,” he said.
The softer conditions come despite ongoing supply constraints across much of the country. Construction costs remain elevated and feasibility challenges continue to limit new housing delivery, even as governments in NSW and Victoria continue to implement planning reforms designed to accelerate approvals and increase apartment supply.
For the new apartment sector, the data highlights an increasingly important divide between established housing markets and the off-the-plan market.
While detached housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne continue to soften, the supply of new apartments remains well below the levels required to meet population growth and federal housing targets.
This imbalance is likely to continue supporting demand for new apartment stock, particularly in major urban centres where affordability pressures are forcing more buyers towards higher-density housing options.
The latest rental figures also reinforce the underlying strength of housing demand.
National rents increased another 0.6 per cent in May, taking annual rental growth to 5.9 per cent. Vacancy rates remain at just 1.5 per cent nationally, matching the record lows experienced during the post-pandemic migration surge.
Lawless said renters are increasingly reaching affordability limits.
“With renters dedicating around a third of their pre-tax income to rental payments, it’s uncertain how much longer this upswing in rents can last,” he said.
The housing slowdown is unfolding against a backdrop of improving inflation data and growing confidence that interest rates will remain on hold when the Reserve Bank meets in June.
Australia’s monthly inflation indicator has continued to trend lower in recent months, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA is unlikely to lift the cash rate again in the near term.
Financial markets and economists have increasingly shifted their focus towards the timing of future rate cuts rather than the prospect of further tightening.
While the RBA remains cautious about services inflation and housing-related costs, recent inflation outcomes have largely eased concerns that another rate rise would be required.
That is providing some support to housing sentiment, although affordability and borrowing capacity remain significant constraints.
For now, Cotality’s data suggests the housing market is entering a more subdued phase rather than facing a sharp correction.
Affordability pressures, weaker confidence and slower sales activity are weighing on demand, while population growth, tight rental markets and constrained housing supply continue to provide a floor underneath values.
The result is a housing market that remains highly fragmented, with Sydney and Melbourne continuing to cool, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain in growth mode, albeit at a slower pace than seen over the past two years.
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International AI strategist Justin Kabbani will headline the Kanebridge Property Summit in Sydney on June 18, with tickets selling fast.
