The winners and losers in Australian residential real estate in 2025

Australia’s housing market staged a turnaround in 2025, defying intense affordability and cost-of-living pressures to deliver an above-decade-average growth rate of 7.7% through the year-to-date.

Cotality’s annual Best of the Best report, a detailed nationwide breakdown of the suburbs that rose fastest, had the highest rent return or offered the most accessible entry points, identifies which markets led the year’s recovery.

National dwelling values are set to close 2025 at least eight per cent higher, a result Cotality Australia Head of Research Eliza Owen says highlights how quickly conditions shifted after a challenging start.

“Markets entered 2025 under considerable pressure. Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out. What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition,” Ms Owen said.

Three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive the recovery, with the housing market recording three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November and reaching a new high of $12 trillion.

Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower-value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions.

“Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets were had the most acceleration because they remained within reach for buyers navigating higher living costs,” she said.

Prestige Sydney remains Australia’s price leader

Sydney’s top-end suburbs sat in their own price bracket in 2025, widening the gap between premium enclaves and the rest of the country.

Point Piper led the national list with a median house value of $17.3 million and unit medians above $3.1 million, followed by long-established areas such as Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse,

Tamarama and Rose Bay.

Owen said the resilience of premium Sydney markets was in sharp contrast to affordability pressures elsewhere.

“Affordability constraints were a defining feature of 2025, yet premium markets continued to operate on their own cycle. These suburbs are far less sensitive to borrowing costs and

listing trends, which is why their performance often diverges from the broader market,” she said.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally at $1.58 billion across 229 transactions, underlining the scale of turnover even in a year of strained serviceability.

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest gains

Western Australia dominated high house value growth in 2025, with Kalbarri increasing 40.2% to $515,378 followed by Rangeway (32.2%) and Lockyer (32.0%).

Similar trends emerged in the unit market, with strong results concentrated in Queensland’s mid-priced regions such as Cranbrook (up 29.3%) and Wilsonton (up 26.9%).

Ms Owen said the performance of these markets highlighted the role of affordability at a time of constrained borrowing power.

“Lower value areas offered buyers an opportunity to get into the market if they had the capacity to service a mortgage. Once interest rate cuts started to flow through, demand lifted

quickly in those areas where prices had further room to grow,” she said.

“Investors were a particularly strong driver of demand in markets across WA and QLD, where the share of new mortgage lending to investors reached 38.3% and 41.1%

respectively.”

Perth, Brisbane and Darwin lead capital-city upswing

Darwin posted the strongest rise among the capitals at 17.1% through the year-to-date, following a flat result in 2024, joined by Brisbane and Perth as Australia’s three top-performing capital cities.

The fastest growing capital-city suburb for houses was Mandogalup in Perth (up 33.0% to $944,609), alongside several outer Darwin suburbs where more moderate entry points below $600,000 supported stronger value growth.

The most affordable capital-city suburbs for houses were clustered around Greater Hobart, including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater, all with medians under $450,000.

Suburbs in Adelaide and Darwin provided some of the best value for unit buyers, with medians ranging from less than $250,000 in Hackham, Adelaide to $328,416 for Karama in Darwin.

Biggest gains and the steepest falls in regional Australia

Strong upswings in WA and Queensland contrasted with declines in other regional pockets.

House values fell 11.6% in Millthorpe (NSW) and 10.5% in Tennant Creek (NT) while several unit markets recorded annual declines, including South Hedland (down 14.1%) and Mulwala (down 11.8%).

Owen said these differences reflected the uneven backdrop of supply levels, migration flows and localised demand.

“Some regional areas are still benefiting from relative affordability and tight rental conditions.

Others are adjusting to earlier periods of rapid growth or shifts in local economic activity,” she said.

Mining towns produced the highest yields

Rental demand remained firm across key resource corridors in regional WA and parts of regional Queensland, where constrained supply, strong employment bases and short-stay

workforces contributed to some of the highest yields in the country.

Newman, in the Pilbara, delivered the strongest house yields at 12.6%, reflecting demand linked to iron ore operations, Kambalda East, near the Goldfields mining belt, followed at

12.2%, supported by nickel and gold activity.

Unit yields were even stronger, with South Hedland leading the country at 17.8%, while Newman recorded 14.3% and Pegs Creek recorded 13.2%, as apartment stock is limited

and worker demand remains consistent.

Pegs Creek, located in Karratha, recorded a 23.5% increase in house rents over the year and Rockhampton City recorded a 21.1% jump in unit rents.

Constraints to shape 2026

Market conditions are expected to be more restrained in 2026 as borrowing capacity, affordability and credit assessments place limitations on demand.

National listings remain 18% below the five-year average and new housing completions continue to trail household formation, maintaining the structural imbalance that supported

stronger conditions in 2025.

Owen said that imbalance alone is not enough to drive the same level of growth next year.

“Supply remains tight, but the demand environment is shifting. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher, interest rate expectations have adjusted with them, and households are

facing stricter borrowing assessments. Those factors can temper buyer activity even when stock levels are low,” she said.

“Lower value markets may still outperform because they carry less sensitivity to credit constraints, but overall growth is likely to be more measured compared with 2025.”

Key findings – Cotality Best of The Best (BoB) 2025

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest value gains, led by Kalbarri (WA), up 40.2% for houses, and Cranbrook (Qld), up 29.3% for units.

Sydney’s premium suburbs remained the country’s highest value markets, with Point Piper recording a house median of $17.3 million and unit median of more than $3.1

million.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally, with $1.58 billion transacted across 229 sales.

WA’s resource-linked towns produced the nation’s strongest rental yields, with Newman at 12.6% for houses and South Hedland at 17.8% for units.

Pegs Creek (WA) had the highest annual house rent increase at 23.5%, unit rents rose the highest in Rockhampton (QLD), up 21.1%.

The Centennial Collection, the new apartment development on the edge of Centennial Park in Bondi Junction, continues to break local residential property records.

A local Eastern suburbs buyer has splashed $11 million on a three-bedroom, sub-penthouse on level 10 of the development, topping the previous record within the same development.

At 266 sqm, including internal and external space, the north-facing residence achieved more than $55,000 per sqm, making it one of the most expensive apartment transactions ever recorded in Sydney’s eastern suburbs outside the harbourfront enclaves of Double Bay and Darling Point.

The buyer had originally purchased a three-bedroom apartment in The Centennial Collection in 2025 for $6.5 million before deciding to secure the larger half-floor sub-penthouse.

Ray White Projects Director of Sales Marcello Bo, who is managing sales for the project, said the transaction highlighted the continued strength of demand for premium apartments in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.

“This sale is a clear indication of buoyancy in the upper end of the market and reinforces the strong demand and appetite for primely located, larger-sized apartments with all the luxurious inclusions you would expect with a development of this calibre,” Bo said.

“It also demonstrates that superbly-designed, lifestyle-driven residences in tightly held locations continue to outperform, particularly when they deliver scale, privacy, rarity and long-term liveability that aligns with how buyers want to live today.”

The Centennial Collection occupies a prominent gateway site overlooking Centennial Park at the junction of Bondi Junction, Woollahra and Paddington. Following recent State Significant Development approval, the project now comprises 79 apartments across two adjoining towers rising 13 and 16 storeys.

The development has been designed to target owner-occupiers seeking larger-format apartments, with residences featuring inclusions more commonly associated with standalone homes, including private rooftop pools, bedroom fireplaces, wet bars, butler’s pantries and full-sized wine fridges.

The record-setting residence was originally designed as one of the project’s penthouses before the approval process allowed additional levels to be added to the scheme.

Positioned on Level 10, the apartment occupies half a floor and has no common walls. It offers 270-degree views spanning Sydney Harbour, the Harbour Bridge, Opera House, Centennial Park and both the northern and southern headlands.

The purchaser said that proximity to Centennial Park, transport connectivity, and the surrounding lifestyle amenities ultimately drove his decision.

“I’m constantly looking at developments everywhere in the east, from Darling Point to Rushcutters Bay, Double Bay, all the beaches, Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama, Woollahra. I wanted something new,” he said.

“Everywhere you go, there’s a trade-off. It might have a great floor plan, but it doesn’t have a view. Working in the city, your daily commute impacts everything, so Bondi Junction train station was a huge factor in my decision.”

The buyer, an avid cyclist who rides regularly in Centennial Park, said his view of the location changed significantly as he spent more time assessing the eastern suburbs market.

“At first, I thought, who would want to live there? It’s one of the busiest intersections in the eastern suburbs. But when you peel it all back, it’s one of the best locations in Sydney. You’re close to everything, you can walk to everything, the amenity is incredible, and the views are amazing.”

Bondi Junction is slated to look materially different in the coming decades, with a draft 100-page masterplan proposing a regeneration of the suburb which would include thousands more apartments as well as a revitalised commercial, retail, and dining precinct.