The winners and losers in Australian residential real estate in 2025
Australia’s housing market rebounded sharply in 2025, with lower-value suburbs and resource regions driving growth as rate cuts, tight supply and renewed competition reshaped the year.
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Australia’s housing market staged a turnaround in 2025, defying intense affordability and cost-of-living pressures to deliver an above-decade-average growth rate of 7.7% through the year-to-date.
Cotality’s annual Best of the Best report, a detailed nationwide breakdown of the suburbs that rose fastest, had the highest rent return or offered the most accessible entry points, identifies which markets led the year’s recovery.
National dwelling values are set to close 2025 at least eight per cent higher, a result Cotality Australia Head of Research Eliza Owen says highlights how quickly conditions shifted after a challenging start.
“Markets entered 2025 under considerable pressure. Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out. What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition,” Ms Owen said.
Three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive the recovery, with the housing market recording three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November and reaching a new high of $12 trillion.
Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower-value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions.
“Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets were had the most acceleration because they remained within reach for buyers navigating higher living costs,” she said.
Prestige Sydney remains Australia’s price leader
Sydney’s top-end suburbs sat in their own price bracket in 2025, widening the gap between premium enclaves and the rest of the country.
Point Piper led the national list with a median house value of $17.3 million and unit medians above $3.1 million, followed by long-established areas such as Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse,
Tamarama and Rose Bay.
Owen said the resilience of premium Sydney markets was in sharp contrast to affordability pressures elsewhere.
“Affordability constraints were a defining feature of 2025, yet premium markets continued to operate on their own cycle. These suburbs are far less sensitive to borrowing costs and
listing trends, which is why their performance often diverges from the broader market,” she said.
Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally at $1.58 billion across 229 transactions, underlining the scale of turnover even in a year of strained serviceability.
Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest gains
Western Australia dominated high house value growth in 2025, with Kalbarri increasing 40.2% to $515,378 followed by Rangeway (32.2%) and Lockyer (32.0%).
Similar trends emerged in the unit market, with strong results concentrated in Queensland’s mid-priced regions such as Cranbrook (up 29.3%) and Wilsonton (up 26.9%).
Ms Owen said the performance of these markets highlighted the role of affordability at a time of constrained borrowing power.
“Lower value areas offered buyers an opportunity to get into the market if they had the capacity to service a mortgage. Once interest rate cuts started to flow through, demand lifted
quickly in those areas where prices had further room to grow,” she said.
“Investors were a particularly strong driver of demand in markets across WA and QLD, where the share of new mortgage lending to investors reached 38.3% and 41.1%
respectively.”
Perth, Brisbane and Darwin lead capital-city upswing
Darwin posted the strongest rise among the capitals at 17.1% through the year-to-date, following a flat result in 2024, joined by Brisbane and Perth as Australia’s three top-performing capital cities.
The fastest growing capital-city suburb for houses was Mandogalup in Perth (up 33.0% to $944,609), alongside several outer Darwin suburbs where more moderate entry points below $600,000 supported stronger value growth.
The most affordable capital-city suburbs for houses were clustered around Greater Hobart, including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater, all with medians under $450,000.
Suburbs in Adelaide and Darwin provided some of the best value for unit buyers, with medians ranging from less than $250,000 in Hackham, Adelaide to $328,416 for Karama in Darwin.
Biggest gains and the steepest falls in regional Australia
Strong upswings in WA and Queensland contrasted with declines in other regional pockets.
House values fell 11.6% in Millthorpe (NSW) and 10.5% in Tennant Creek (NT) while several unit markets recorded annual declines, including South Hedland (down 14.1%) and Mulwala (down 11.8%).
Owen said these differences reflected the uneven backdrop of supply levels, migration flows and localised demand.
“Some regional areas are still benefiting from relative affordability and tight rental conditions.
Others are adjusting to earlier periods of rapid growth or shifts in local economic activity,” she said.
Mining towns produced the highest yields
Rental demand remained firm across key resource corridors in regional WA and parts of regional Queensland, where constrained supply, strong employment bases and short-stay
workforces contributed to some of the highest yields in the country.
Newman, in the Pilbara, delivered the strongest house yields at 12.6%, reflecting demand linked to iron ore operations, Kambalda East, near the Goldfields mining belt, followed at
12.2%, supported by nickel and gold activity.
Unit yields were even stronger, with South Hedland leading the country at 17.8%, while Newman recorded 14.3% and Pegs Creek recorded 13.2%, as apartment stock is limited
and worker demand remains consistent.
Pegs Creek, located in Karratha, recorded a 23.5% increase in house rents over the year and Rockhampton City recorded a 21.1% jump in unit rents.
Constraints to shape 2026
Market conditions are expected to be more restrained in 2026 as borrowing capacity, affordability and credit assessments place limitations on demand.
National listings remain 18% below the five-year average and new housing completions continue to trail household formation, maintaining the structural imbalance that supported
stronger conditions in 2025.
Owen said that imbalance alone is not enough to drive the same level of growth next year.
“Supply remains tight, but the demand environment is shifting. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher, interest rate expectations have adjusted with them, and households are
facing stricter borrowing assessments. Those factors can temper buyer activity even when stock levels are low,” she said.
“Lower value markets may still outperform because they carry less sensitivity to credit constraints, but overall growth is likely to be more measured compared with 2025.”
Key findings – Cotality Best of The Best (BoB) 2025
- Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest value gains, led by Kalbarri (WA), up 40.2% for houses, and Cranbrook (Qld), up 29.3% for units.
- Sydney’s premium suburbs remained the country’s highest value markets, with Point Piper recording a house median of $17.3 million and unit median of more than $3.1
million.
- Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally, with $1.58 billion transacted across 229 sales.
- WA’s resource-linked towns produced the nation’s strongest rental yields, with Newman at 12.6% for houses and South Hedland at 17.8% for units.
- Pegs Creek (WA) had the highest annual house rent increase at 23.5%, unit rents rose the highest in Rockhampton (QLD), up 21.1%.
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Australia’s housing market was flat in May as falling values in Sydney and Melbourne offset continued growth in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.
3 min
Australia’s housing market has lost momentum, with Cotality’s latest Home Value Index revealing national dwelling values were flat in May as affordability constraints, higher borrowing costs and weakening buyer sentiment continue to weigh on demand.
The national result masks increasingly divergent conditions across the country.
Sydney and Melbourne led the decline, with dwelling values falling 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively over the month.
Sydney values are now 2.1 per cent below their November 2025 peak, while Melbourne values sit 3.2 per cent below their March 2022 high.
In contrast, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continued to record growth, although even the stronger-performing markets are beginning to show signs of slowing.
Perth again led the capitals, recording monthly growth of 1.5 per cent and annual growth of 25.8 per cent. Brisbane values increased 0.9 per cent in May and are now 19.1 per cent higher than a year ago, while Adelaide recorded a 0.5 per cent monthly rise and annua growth of 12.3 per cent.
Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless said Australia’s housing market continues to operate at vastly different speeds depending on location.
“We are continuing to see multi-speed conditions across Australia’s housing sector, with Perth and Melbourne at opposite ends of the spectrum,” Lawless said.
“The past five years have seen these cities diverge sharply, with Perth values up a stunning 91.4 per cent while Melbourne home values are only 3.3 per cent higher since May 2021.”
Lawless said while the pace of value growth remains highly varied between cities, a common trend is emerging.
“While the speed of value change remains very different from city to city, the direction is becoming more consistent, with most markets losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify.”
The slowdown is becoming increasingly evident in transaction activity.
National home sales over the past three months were estimated to be 2.2 per cent lower than a year ago and 4.1 per cent below the five-year average.
Sydney and Melbourne recorded the sharpest declines in sales activity, down 17.0 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively compared to the same period last year.
Lawless said higher listing volumes are shifting negotiating power back towards buyers.
“These are also the cities where advertised supply has risen to above average levels, providing more choice and better leverage for buyers,” he said.
The softer conditions come despite ongoing supply constraints across much of the country. Construction costs remain elevated and feasibility challenges continue to limit new housing delivery, even as governments in NSW and Victoria continue to implement planning reforms designed to accelerate approvals and increase apartment supply.
For the new apartment sector, the data highlights an increasingly important divide between established housing markets and the off-the-plan market.
While detached housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne continue to soften, the supply of new apartments remains well below the levels required to meet population growth and federal housing targets.
This imbalance is likely to continue supporting demand for new apartment stock, particularly in major urban centres where affordability pressures are forcing more buyers towards higher-density housing options.
The latest rental figures also reinforce the underlying strength of housing demand.
National rents increased another 0.6 per cent in May, taking annual rental growth to 5.9 per cent. Vacancy rates remain at just 1.5 per cent nationally, matching the record lows experienced during the post-pandemic migration surge.
Lawless said renters are increasingly reaching affordability limits.
“With renters dedicating around a third of their pre-tax income to rental payments, it’s uncertain how much longer this upswing in rents can last,” he said.
The housing slowdown is unfolding against a backdrop of improving inflation data and growing confidence that interest rates will remain on hold when the Reserve Bank meets in June.
Australia’s monthly inflation indicator has continued to trend lower in recent months, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA is unlikely to lift the cash rate again in the near term.
Financial markets and economists have increasingly shifted their focus towards the timing of future rate cuts rather than the prospect of further tightening.
While the RBA remains cautious about services inflation and housing-related costs, recent inflation outcomes have largely eased concerns that another rate rise would be required.
That is providing some support to housing sentiment, although affordability and borrowing capacity remain significant constraints.
For now, Cotality’s data suggests the housing market is entering a more subdued phase rather than facing a sharp correction.
Affordability pressures, weaker confidence and slower sales activity are weighing on demand, while population growth, tight rental markets and constrained housing supply continue to provide a floor underneath values.
The result is a housing market that remains highly fragmented, with Sydney and Melbourne continuing to cool, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain in growth mode, albeit at a slower pace than seen over the past two years.
As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.
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