The winners and losers in Australian residential real estate in 2025

Australia’s housing market staged a turnaround in 2025, defying intense affordability and cost-of-living pressures to deliver an above-decade-average growth rate of 7.7% through the year-to-date.

Cotality’s annual Best of the Best report, a detailed nationwide breakdown of the suburbs that rose fastest, had the highest rent return or offered the most accessible entry points, identifies which markets led the year’s recovery.

National dwelling values are set to close 2025 at least eight per cent higher, a result Cotality Australia Head of Research Eliza Owen says highlights how quickly conditions shifted after a challenging start.

“Markets entered 2025 under considerable pressure. Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out. What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition,” Ms Owen said.

Three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive the recovery, with the housing market recording three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November and reaching a new high of $12 trillion.

Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower-value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions.

“Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets were had the most acceleration because they remained within reach for buyers navigating higher living costs,” she said.

Prestige Sydney remains Australia’s price leader

Sydney’s top-end suburbs sat in their own price bracket in 2025, widening the gap between premium enclaves and the rest of the country.

Point Piper led the national list with a median house value of $17.3 million and unit medians above $3.1 million, followed by long-established areas such as Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse,

Tamarama and Rose Bay.

Owen said the resilience of premium Sydney markets was in sharp contrast to affordability pressures elsewhere.

“Affordability constraints were a defining feature of 2025, yet premium markets continued to operate on their own cycle. These suburbs are far less sensitive to borrowing costs and

listing trends, which is why their performance often diverges from the broader market,” she said.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally at $1.58 billion across 229 transactions, underlining the scale of turnover even in a year of strained serviceability.

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest gains

Western Australia dominated high house value growth in 2025, with Kalbarri increasing 40.2% to $515,378 followed by Rangeway (32.2%) and Lockyer (32.0%).

Similar trends emerged in the unit market, with strong results concentrated in Queensland’s mid-priced regions such as Cranbrook (up 29.3%) and Wilsonton (up 26.9%).

Ms Owen said the performance of these markets highlighted the role of affordability at a time of constrained borrowing power.

“Lower value areas offered buyers an opportunity to get into the market if they had the capacity to service a mortgage. Once interest rate cuts started to flow through, demand lifted

quickly in those areas where prices had further room to grow,” she said.

“Investors were a particularly strong driver of demand in markets across WA and QLD, where the share of new mortgage lending to investors reached 38.3% and 41.1%

respectively.”

Perth, Brisbane and Darwin lead capital-city upswing

Darwin posted the strongest rise among the capitals at 17.1% through the year-to-date, following a flat result in 2024, joined by Brisbane and Perth as Australia’s three top-performing capital cities.

The fastest growing capital-city suburb for houses was Mandogalup in Perth (up 33.0% to $944,609), alongside several outer Darwin suburbs where more moderate entry points below $600,000 supported stronger value growth.

The most affordable capital-city suburbs for houses were clustered around Greater Hobart, including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater, all with medians under $450,000.

Suburbs in Adelaide and Darwin provided some of the best value for unit buyers, with medians ranging from less than $250,000 in Hackham, Adelaide to $328,416 for Karama in Darwin.

Biggest gains and the steepest falls in regional Australia

Strong upswings in WA and Queensland contrasted with declines in other regional pockets.

House values fell 11.6% in Millthorpe (NSW) and 10.5% in Tennant Creek (NT) while several unit markets recorded annual declines, including South Hedland (down 14.1%) and Mulwala (down 11.8%).

Owen said these differences reflected the uneven backdrop of supply levels, migration flows and localised demand.

“Some regional areas are still benefiting from relative affordability and tight rental conditions.

Others are adjusting to earlier periods of rapid growth or shifts in local economic activity,” she said.

Mining towns produced the highest yields

Rental demand remained firm across key resource corridors in regional WA and parts of regional Queensland, where constrained supply, strong employment bases and short-stay

workforces contributed to some of the highest yields in the country.

Newman, in the Pilbara, delivered the strongest house yields at 12.6%, reflecting demand linked to iron ore operations, Kambalda East, near the Goldfields mining belt, followed at

12.2%, supported by nickel and gold activity.

Unit yields were even stronger, with South Hedland leading the country at 17.8%, while Newman recorded 14.3% and Pegs Creek recorded 13.2%, as apartment stock is limited

and worker demand remains consistent.

Pegs Creek, located in Karratha, recorded a 23.5% increase in house rents over the year and Rockhampton City recorded a 21.1% jump in unit rents.

Constraints to shape 2026

Market conditions are expected to be more restrained in 2026 as borrowing capacity, affordability and credit assessments place limitations on demand.

National listings remain 18% below the five-year average and new housing completions continue to trail household formation, maintaining the structural imbalance that supported

stronger conditions in 2025.

Owen said that imbalance alone is not enough to drive the same level of growth next year.

“Supply remains tight, but the demand environment is shifting. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher, interest rate expectations have adjusted with them, and households are

facing stricter borrowing assessments. Those factors can temper buyer activity even when stock levels are low,” she said.

“Lower value markets may still outperform because they carry less sensitivity to credit constraints, but overall growth is likely to be more measured compared with 2025.”

Key findings – Cotality Best of The Best (BoB) 2025

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest value gains, led by Kalbarri (WA), up 40.2% for houses, and Cranbrook (Qld), up 29.3% for units.

Sydney’s premium suburbs remained the country’s highest value markets, with Point Piper recording a house median of $17.3 million and unit median of more than $3.1

million.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally, with $1.58 billion transacted across 229 sales.

WA’s resource-linked towns produced the nation’s strongest rental yields, with Newman at 12.6% for houses and South Hedland at 17.8% for units.

Pegs Creek (WA) had the highest annual house rent increase at 23.5%, unit rents rose the highest in Rockhampton (QLD), up 21.1%.

The Sydney developer-builder, which typically retains its projects, is offering 54 residences off the plan on Spencer Street, with prices starting at $3.9 million.

HSN Property Group has launched Maison Jolene in Rose Bay, giving buyers a rare opportunity to purchase off the plan from a developer-builder that has spent more than two decades building a predominantly build-to-hold portfolio in Sydney’s eastern suburbs. HSN values that portfolio at $4 billion.

Located at 2–16 Spencer Street, Maison Jolene comprises 54 residences, including house-sized two- and three-bedroom apartments, sub-penthouses and penthouses. Prices start at $3.9 million, according to HSN, with many residences designed to capture views across Rose Bay, Sydney Harbour and the city skyline.

James Nixon, head of projects at The Rubinstein Group, is handling the sales campaign alongside agency founder Gavin Rubinstein. He says the launch is an unusual opportunity for buyers who have followed the developer’s work.

“HSN is renowned for building entire projects and rarely selling a single apartment to the open market, so Maison Jolene really is a first for potential buyers who have been following the brand across previous projects,” Nixon says.

HSN worked with architecture practice MHN Design Union and interiors studio The Unlisted Collective on the development. A rhythm of arches and deep-set openings gives the building its presence on Spencer Street, while the residences are positioned to make the most of natural light, privacy and outlook. Landscaping frames the arrival and carries through to the shared outdoor spaces.

“Maison Jolene was conceived to bring a touch of European elegance to Rose Bay, drawing on the understated charm of Mayfair and the romance of Paris while remaining grounded in the relaxed character of Sydney’s eastern suburbs,” says Rafi Assouline, founder and director of HSN Property Group.

The apartments were designed with established Rose Bay downsizers in mind. Large kitchens, generous storage and flexible living areas are intended to ease the move from a family home, with layouts that can also accommodate families and professionals looking for more space in an apartment.

The shared amenities are designed as an extension of those homes. Residents will have access to a lounge, private dining room and landscaped alfresco entertaining area. A wellness retreat brings together a magnesium pool, cold plunge, sauna, steam room and heated stone recovery bench, alongside a gym and dedicated space for Pilates and yoga.

Inside the apartments, the curves of the façade recur in the cabinetry and balustrades. Custom wall sconces, tapware and patterned parquetry sit alongside carved marble basins, hammered-glass shower screens and recessed stone niches. Timber veneer wardrobes have leather-clad drawers, while an Art Deco-inspired motif appears in the raised ceiling detail, joinery and built-in velvet bedheads.

“Maison Jolene is at once contemporary and old world, with custom-designed parquetry flooring and an art deco-inspired motif juxtaposing with the curvature of the arched facade, balustrade and internal cabinetry,” Assouline says.

The kitchens bring several of those ideas together in a sculptural, bubble-shaped island. Assouline helped design and engineer the curved form and personally selected the marble, which is bookmatched so the veining mirrors across adjoining pieces.

“With each of our projects, I look for symmetry in design,” he says. “Crafting the apartments is like solving a puzzle of one thousand pieces; one little detail wrong could mean the picture doesn’t translate correctly once it’s finished.”

HSN will develop and build Maison Jolene, overseeing the project from design through to construction. The family-owned company says it has delivered more than 270 homes, has 200 apartments under construction and has a 100 per cent completion record.

“As a private, integrated developer-builder, we maintain close control over every stage of a project,” Assouline says. “We see our projects as collaborative partnerships with our architects, interior designers and specialist trades with whom we have refined a very unique aesthetic, to ensure every detail is considered for those who will live there.”

For Nixon, the developer’s involvement in both design and construction is part of the pitch to buyers. “The attention to design excellence, combined with HSN’s proven track record in delivering ultra-high-end developments, ensures a level of rarity and enduring quality seldom seen in today’s market,” he says.

“To purchase an HSN property is to acquire a property that will not just hold its value but stand the test of time as a timeless piece of Sydney real estate.”

The Spencer Street address puts residents close to Rose Bay’s village cafés and restaurants, foreshore walks and ferry service, with beaches, golf courses and schools nearby. Maison Jolene is now selling off the plan through James Nixon and Gavin Rubinstein.