The winners and losers in Australian residential real estate in 2025

Australia’s housing market staged a turnaround in 2025, defying intense affordability and cost-of-living pressures to deliver an above-decade-average growth rate of 7.7% through the year-to-date.

Cotality’s annual Best of the Best report, a detailed nationwide breakdown of the suburbs that rose fastest, had the highest rent return or offered the most accessible entry points, identifies which markets led the year’s recovery.

National dwelling values are set to close 2025 at least eight per cent higher, a result Cotality Australia Head of Research Eliza Owen says highlights how quickly conditions shifted after a challenging start.

“Markets entered 2025 under considerable pressure. Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out. What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition,” Ms Owen said.

Three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive the recovery, with the housing market recording three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November and reaching a new high of $12 trillion.

Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower-value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions.

“Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets were had the most acceleration because they remained within reach for buyers navigating higher living costs,” she said.

Prestige Sydney remains Australia’s price leader

Sydney’s top-end suburbs sat in their own price bracket in 2025, widening the gap between premium enclaves and the rest of the country.

Point Piper led the national list with a median house value of $17.3 million and unit medians above $3.1 million, followed by long-established areas such as Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse,

Tamarama and Rose Bay.

Owen said the resilience of premium Sydney markets was in sharp contrast to affordability pressures elsewhere.

“Affordability constraints were a defining feature of 2025, yet premium markets continued to operate on their own cycle. These suburbs are far less sensitive to borrowing costs and

listing trends, which is why their performance often diverges from the broader market,” she said.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally at $1.58 billion across 229 transactions, underlining the scale of turnover even in a year of strained serviceability.

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest gains

Western Australia dominated high house value growth in 2025, with Kalbarri increasing 40.2% to $515,378 followed by Rangeway (32.2%) and Lockyer (32.0%).

Similar trends emerged in the unit market, with strong results concentrated in Queensland’s mid-priced regions such as Cranbrook (up 29.3%) and Wilsonton (up 26.9%).

Ms Owen said the performance of these markets highlighted the role of affordability at a time of constrained borrowing power.

“Lower value areas offered buyers an opportunity to get into the market if they had the capacity to service a mortgage. Once interest rate cuts started to flow through, demand lifted

quickly in those areas where prices had further room to grow,” she said.

“Investors were a particularly strong driver of demand in markets across WA and QLD, where the share of new mortgage lending to investors reached 38.3% and 41.1%

respectively.”

Perth, Brisbane and Darwin lead capital-city upswing

Darwin posted the strongest rise among the capitals at 17.1% through the year-to-date, following a flat result in 2024, joined by Brisbane and Perth as Australia’s three top-performing capital cities.

The fastest growing capital-city suburb for houses was Mandogalup in Perth (up 33.0% to $944,609), alongside several outer Darwin suburbs where more moderate entry points below $600,000 supported stronger value growth.

The most affordable capital-city suburbs for houses were clustered around Greater Hobart, including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater, all with medians under $450,000.

Suburbs in Adelaide and Darwin provided some of the best value for unit buyers, with medians ranging from less than $250,000 in Hackham, Adelaide to $328,416 for Karama in Darwin.

Biggest gains and the steepest falls in regional Australia

Strong upswings in WA and Queensland contrasted with declines in other regional pockets.

House values fell 11.6% in Millthorpe (NSW) and 10.5% in Tennant Creek (NT) while several unit markets recorded annual declines, including South Hedland (down 14.1%) and Mulwala (down 11.8%).

Owen said these differences reflected the uneven backdrop of supply levels, migration flows and localised demand.

“Some regional areas are still benefiting from relative affordability and tight rental conditions.

Others are adjusting to earlier periods of rapid growth or shifts in local economic activity,” she said.

Mining towns produced the highest yields

Rental demand remained firm across key resource corridors in regional WA and parts of regional Queensland, where constrained supply, strong employment bases and short-stay

workforces contributed to some of the highest yields in the country.

Newman, in the Pilbara, delivered the strongest house yields at 12.6%, reflecting demand linked to iron ore operations, Kambalda East, near the Goldfields mining belt, followed at

12.2%, supported by nickel and gold activity.

Unit yields were even stronger, with South Hedland leading the country at 17.8%, while Newman recorded 14.3% and Pegs Creek recorded 13.2%, as apartment stock is limited

and worker demand remains consistent.

Pegs Creek, located in Karratha, recorded a 23.5% increase in house rents over the year and Rockhampton City recorded a 21.1% jump in unit rents.

Constraints to shape 2026

Market conditions are expected to be more restrained in 2026 as borrowing capacity, affordability and credit assessments place limitations on demand.

National listings remain 18% below the five-year average and new housing completions continue to trail household formation, maintaining the structural imbalance that supported

stronger conditions in 2025.

Owen said that imbalance alone is not enough to drive the same level of growth next year.

“Supply remains tight, but the demand environment is shifting. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher, interest rate expectations have adjusted with them, and households are

facing stricter borrowing assessments. Those factors can temper buyer activity even when stock levels are low,” she said.

“Lower value markets may still outperform because they carry less sensitivity to credit constraints, but overall growth is likely to be more measured compared with 2025.”

Key findings – Cotality Best of The Best (BoB) 2025

Lower-value suburbs delivered the strongest value gains, led by Kalbarri (WA), up 40.2% for houses, and Cranbrook (Qld), up 29.3% for units.

Sydney’s premium suburbs remained the country’s highest value markets, with Point Piper recording a house median of $17.3 million and unit median of more than $3.1

million.

Mosman recorded the highest total value of house sales nationally, with $1.58 billion transacted across 229 sales.

WA’s resource-linked towns produced the nation’s strongest rental yields, with Newman at 12.6% for houses and South Hedland at 17.8% for units.

Pegs Creek (WA) had the highest annual house rent increase at 23.5%, unit rents rose the highest in Rockhampton (QLD), up 21.1%.

Mount French Lodge, one of the most remarkable private estates in Queensland’s Scenic Rim, has been brought to market, offering a glimpse into the growing appetite for high-end lifestyle properties beyond the state’s traditional beachside enclaves.

Located in the tiny locality of Charlwood, around 100km inland from Brisbane and home to just 146 residents at the 2021 Census, the estate stands in stark contrast to its quiet surroundings. Set across nearly 100 acres and positioned some 600 feet above sea level, the property occupies a commanding vantage point beneath the escarpments of Mount French.

It’s this combination of elevation, scale and seclusion that defines the estate, not just as a private residence, but as an experience-led destination. Mount French Lodge has been recognised in both the 2024 and 2025 Best of Queensland Experiences, reflecting a broader shift towards luxury rural retreats that blur the line between home, hospitality and investment.

Last sold for $3.65 million in 2021 to Brisbane-based entrepreneur Tim Woodhouse, the estate has since evolved into a multifaceted holding. At its core is a central lodge, complemented by guest accommodation, entertaining spaces and resort-style amenities spread across two distinct plateaus.

In total, the property comprises 12 bedrooms configured across eight self-contained apartments within multiple lodges. At its heart is the Great Room, a central gathering space anchored by a large living area and fireplace. Nearby, a fully equipped outdoor pavilion with barbecue facilities sits alongside the estate’s swimming pool.

The property is being marketed as a private compound, ranch, corporate retreat and a wedding venue, highlighting its potential as a lifestyle asset with income-generating capability. This kind of flexibility is increasingly resonating with buyers, particularly as demand grows for properties that can serve as multigenerational homes, wellness retreats or boutique accommodation offerings.

Despite its sense of isolation, Mount French Lodge remains within relatively easy reach of Brisbane, around an hour by road or just minutes by helicopter. That balance of accessibility and privacy underscores the broader appeal of the Scenic Rim, which continues to emerge as a quiet achiever in Queensland’s prestige property market.

The listing is being handled by Queensland Sotheby’s International Realty agents Sandy Davies and Nicholas Miranda, and is expected to attract interest from both domestic and international buyers.