The top 7 ways COVID changed the Australian property market

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless has revealed seven ways in which COVID changed Australian housing market trends.

“It was four years ago when the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a worldwide pandemic,” Mr Lawless said. “Since that time economic trends, including housing metrics, have been on a rollercoaster ride. Although lockdowns and the uncertainty of vaccination programs are well behind us, the legacy of COVID will be with us for a long time yet.”

1. Surging home values

Australia’s home price median surged 32.5% between March 2020 and February 2024, providing an incredible uplift of approximately $188,000 for homeowners in just four years. Housing values initially dipped when COVID hit but then surged 30.8% higher to a cyclical peak in April 2022. The market slumped 7.5% as interest rates rose, but as supply dried up and migration spiked, housing values entered a new growth cycle in February 2023 and have since risen 9.5% to date.

Mr Lawless said house values have increased by 37.9% while unit values have risen 16.5%, reflecting buyers’ preference for more space during COVID, and the ability to work from home allowing them to move to city outskirts or regional areas where they could afford a house. This led to regional home prices rising faster than capital city values. Today, regional prices are up a collective 47.6% compared with a 28.5% rise in capital city prices.

2. Rising rents

Mr Lawless said rental markets have tightened substantially, with vacancy rates holding around 1% and weekly rents surging. Nationally, rents have jumped 32.4% since March 2020, adding approximately $150 per week to the median weekly rent.

3. Interest rates

Mr Lawless said emergency low interest rates stimulated demand but in May 2022, when the Reserve Bank began increasing rates to fight inflation, market activity was quickly quelled.“So far borrowers have navigated higher mortgage rates much better than expected with mortgage arrears holding below pre-pandemic levels,” Mr Lawless commented.

4. Inflation

Mr Lawless said unprecedented peacetime fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and stronger global demand once COVID restrictions were lifted created higher inflation. This was exacerbated further by global supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. “Inflation is now beating forecasts, fuelling speculation we could see rate cuts later this year,” he said.

5. Low unemployment

Strong employment is seen as a crucial factor in keeping the property market stable. Once lockdowns ended and social distancing measures were eased, the jobs market tightened significantly. “Although labour markets are now loosening, RBA forecasts have the unemployment rate holding below 4.5% through to at least mid-2026,” Mr Lawless said.

6. Demographic trends

One factor keeping housing demand strong throughout the pandemic, despite closed borders, was the average household size shrinking as more people bought or rented houses, Mr Lawless explained. Since international borders reopened, record high overseas migration led by students has added massive new demand, particularly in the rental market.

7. Low supply

Low supply of homes for sale and fewer homes being built during COVID resulted in the unusual situation of housing values increasing at the same time as interest rates.

“Dwelling completions have held relatively flat through the pandemic to date, with supply chain constraints, materials and labour shortages, and a surge in construction costs creating a challenging environment for delivering new housing supply,” Mr Lawless said.

Tucked away in Byron Bay’s coveted hinterland, Whimsy Farm is a traditional rural homestead surrounded by more than 16ha of lush fertile grounds with equestrian facilities and a host of whimsical additions including a fairytale-inspired maze.

Just listed with Sotheby’s International Realty Byron Bay, agents Denzil Lloyd and Will Phillips are running an expressions of interest campaign on the glamorous getaway with a price guide of $5.25 million to $5.75 million.

The romantic estate in Federal, 25 kms from Byron Bay dates back more than a century, but has been meticulously renovated by its current owners to attain modern day dream home status.

Back in 2016, the enviable property even featured on Foxtel’s short-lived reality TV show I Own Australia’s Best Home. The picturesque parcel has also been appreciated by location scouts and has appeared in a long list of fashion brand and magazine shoots such as Country Style and Queensland Homes.

Owner Melinda Boundy, founder of boutique interiors firm Melinda Boundy Design, was instrumental in reviving the historic Federal homestead. She has described the rural property as a “a respite from the world” where she and her husband have raised their two sons over the past decade.

“I brought my boys down 10 years ago to nurture their creativity, their boyhood,” Boundy said in a recent Instagram post announcing the impending sale.

“We found our farm with its double-storey treehouse and 40 acres the perfect place for two young boys to thrive.”

In addition to hiring out the estate for formal events, Boundy said the family had celebrated several milestones at the address.

“Many parties, sleepovers, friends staying and events have been held [here]. It has seen the filming of a TV show or two, music videos, location shoots and weddings,” she added.

“Now it’s time to pass the baton to another family to share the magic and wonderment of this beautiful compound.”

Lloyd agreed that the listing is a magical estate, ripe for the picking.

“It’s a wonderland. There’s the maze, but it’s also got the treehouse, teepee, dams, beautiful established veggie gardens and it’s perfect for those who love horse riding,” Mr Lloyd said.

“It really is an oasis with plenty of classical charm as well. It’s not an ostentatious home; it’s an original Queenslander from 1910.”

Living up to its storybook name, Whimsy Farm is home to a preserved traditional Queenslander residence with five bedrooms, plus a freestanding guest cottage. There is also a separate pool house and a combined shed or office on site, all capturing scenic hinterland views.

The main single-storey residence has a choice of entertaining spaces inside and out as well as bedrooms opening to private alfresco areas. A grand kitchen and the large living room both open to a vast terrace and pool area.

In the primary bedrooms suite there is a bay window overlooking the natural surrounds, an ensuite with double vanities, and out on the covered deck an outdoor bathtub is an idyllic spot for soaking under the stars.

The playful property has also operated as a holiday rental and offers up unique bonus features including a solar-heated semi circle pool, a double-storey treehouse, a teepee, horse stables, paddocks and a an Olympic-sized dressage arena.

A true tree change destination, the Federal address is home to 10 acres of regenerated forest, eight water tanks, two lagoons, extensive raised veggie gardens and a citrus orchard.

It is conveniently located a scenic 30-minute drive to Byron Bay and 20 minutes to Bangalow.

Whimsy Farm at 711 Federal Dr, Federal is listed through Sotheby’s International Realty Byron Bay through an expressions of interest campaign closing February 20, 5pm.