The top 7 ways COVID changed the Australian property market
The closed borders and construction delays were just some of the pandemic-induced effects on the local property market
2 min
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless has revealed seven ways in which COVID changed Australian housing market trends.
“It was four years ago when the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a worldwide pandemic,” Mr Lawless said. “Since that time economic trends, including housing metrics, have been on a rollercoaster ride. Although lockdowns and the uncertainty of vaccination programs are well behind us, the legacy of COVID will be with us for a long time yet.”
1. Surging home values
Australia’s home price median surged 32.5% between March 2020 and February 2024, providing an incredible uplift of approximately $188,000 for homeowners in just four years. Housing values initially dipped when COVID hit but then surged 30.8% higher to a cyclical peak in April 2022. The market slumped 7.5% as interest rates rose, but as supply dried up and migration spiked, housing values entered a new growth cycle in February 2023 and have since risen 9.5% to date.
Mr Lawless said house values have increased by 37.9% while unit values have risen 16.5%, reflecting buyers’ preference for more space during COVID, and the ability to work from home allowing them to move to city outskirts or regional areas where they could afford a house. This led to regional home prices rising faster than capital city values. Today, regional prices are up a collective 47.6% compared with a 28.5% rise in capital city prices.
2. Rising rents
Mr Lawless said rental markets have tightened substantially, with vacancy rates holding around 1% and weekly rents surging. Nationally, rents have jumped 32.4% since March 2020, adding approximately $150 per week to the median weekly rent.
3. Interest rates
Mr Lawless said emergency low interest rates stimulated demand but in May 2022, when the Reserve Bank began increasing rates to fight inflation, market activity was quickly quelled.“So far borrowers have navigated higher mortgage rates much better than expected with mortgage arrears holding below pre-pandemic levels,” Mr Lawless commented.
4. Inflation
Mr Lawless said unprecedented peacetime fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and stronger global demand once COVID restrictions were lifted created higher inflation. This was exacerbated further by global supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. “Inflation is now beating forecasts, fuelling speculation we could see rate cuts later this year,” he said.
5. Low unemployment
Strong employment is seen as a crucial factor in keeping the property market stable. Once lockdowns ended and social distancing measures were eased, the jobs market tightened significantly. “Although labour markets are now loosening, RBA forecasts have the unemployment rate holding below 4.5% through to at least mid-2026,” Mr Lawless said.
6. Demographic trends
One factor keeping housing demand strong throughout the pandemic, despite closed borders, was the average household size shrinking as more people bought or rented houses, Mr Lawless explained. Since international borders reopened, record high overseas migration led by students has added massive new demand, particularly in the rental market.
7. Low supply
Low supply of homes for sale and fewer homes being built during COVID resulted in the unusual situation of housing values increasing at the same time as interest rates.
“Dwelling completions have held relatively flat through the pandemic to date, with supply chain constraints, materials and labour shortages, and a surge in construction costs creating a challenging environment for delivering new housing supply,” Mr Lawless said.
Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.
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Rising rates, construction inflation and shrinking investor confidence are pushing Australia deeper into a dangerous housing spiral that monetary policy alone cannot fix.
2 minThe Reserve Bank had little choice but to raise interest rates again this week.
Inflation was already proving stubborn before the latest Middle East instability added further pressure to energy prices and supply chains.
Housing inflation alone has averaged six per cent over the past year, remaining one of the single biggest contributors to CPI.
But while the focus remains on rates, the deeper problem is structural and far more dangerous.
Australia is not building enough homes, and the conditions required to fix that are deteriorating simultaneously.
Construction costs remain elevated. Builders are increasingly unwilling to absorb contract risk. Labour shortages persist.
Capital is becoming more expensive. And as borrowing capacity weakens and sentiment softens, fewer projects are becoming financially viable.
The result is a self-reinforcing cycle.
The RBA raises rates to fight inflation. Higher rates reduce development feasibility. Fewer projects start. Housing supply tightens further. Rents rise. Inflation persists. The RBA raises rates again.
The only long-term solution is supply, yet Australia remains nowhere near the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 new dwellings a year.
Completion continues to lag approvals, meaning many projects approved on paper are simply never making it out of the ground.
That gap matters enormously because housing is not just another sector of the economy.
Around two-thirds of Australian household wealth is tied to property, while the sector underpins millions of jobs and related industries. Weakness here quickly spreads beyond real estate.
We are already seeing signs of stress. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have softened, borrowing capacity has declined, and parts of the market are experiencing price corrections as confidence weakens.
At the same time, policymakers continue to debate tax measures such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, despite fears that such reforms could drive private capital out of the rental market at precisely the moment when supply is most constrained.
This is the paradox at the centre of Australia’s housing crisis.
Demand for property remains extraordinarily high, yet the economic conditions required to actually build new housing are worsening.
The Reserve Bank cannot solve that problem alone.
Monetary policy cannot accelerate planning approvals, reduce construction costs or create more tradies. It can only raise the cost of money until something eventually breaks.
And increasingly, that “something” looks like the development pipeline itself.
Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.
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