Australian Consumers Remain Downbeat About Economic Outlook
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 84.6 in September from 85.0 in August
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SYDNEY—Australian consumer confidence fell in September amid concerns about job security as economic growth slows to a crawl.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slipped 0.5% to 84.6 in September from 85.0 in August.
While cost-of-living pressures are becoming a little less intense and fears of further interest rate rises have eased, consumers are becoming more concerned about where the economy may be headed and what this could mean for jobs, said Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, Matthew Hassan.
Consumers remain concerned about rising inflation, which is stoking concerns that interest rates may rise further, Hassan added.
The report comes a week after data showed the economy barely registered a pulse in the second quarter as consumer spending dropped sharply.
On-year GDP growth in the second quarter was the weakest since the early 1990s, excluding the pandemic years.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to signal that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the near term, while adding that under certain circumstances a further hike in interest rates may be needed.
The RBA remains concerned about price growth, with core inflation remaining stubbornly elevated at nearly 4.0% on year in the second quarter.
Still, while consumers are downbeat, economists expect spending to regather momentum over coming quarters as income tax cuts delivered in July boost household budgets.
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Australian shares fell on Thursday as Wall Street weakness, rising oil and persistent rate concerns weighed on most of the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.72 per cent to 8,702. The All Ordinaries lost 0.66 per cent to finish at 8,897. Mining stocks were hit particularly hard, while real estate also dragged on the index. …
Continue reading “ASX falls 0.7 per cent as miners and property stocks retreat”
Borrowers cannot control the Reserve Bank, but they can control how exposed their household budget is to its next decision. The RBA meets on 29 September with inflation concerns still elevated and major-bank economists increasingly bringing forward their rate-rise calls. Fixed mortgage rates have also been moving, reducing the value of waiting for perfect certainty. …
Continue reading “What mortgage holders should do before the next RBA decision”
2 min
A property portfolio can look comfortable until several small pressures arrive together: a rate increase, a vacancy, higher insurance and an unexpected repair. The correct time to model that combination is before it occurs.
Start by recalculating every loan at 0.25, 0.50 and one percentage point above its current rate. Include principal-and-interest repayments even where a loan is temporarily interest-only, because the eventual step-up may be larger than the next RBA move.
Then calculate true net rent. Deduct management, council and water charges, strata, insurance, maintenance, land tax where applicable and a vacancy allowance. A property advertised with an attractive gross yield can produce a very different result after these costs.
Third, review the portfolio’s liquidity. An offset account can reduce interest while keeping cash accessible, but investors should obtain tax advice before moving funds between loans. The distinction between investment and private debt affects deductibility, and poorly structured redraws can create lasting complexity.
Fourth, examine refinancing risk rather than just today’s rate. A highly leveraged investor may be unable to refinance on the same terms because the new lender tests total debt at a higher assessment rate. Credit-card limits, owner-occupied debt and shaded rental income can all reduce capacity.
Fifth, rank properties by resilience. Consider net yield, vacancy risk, near-term capital expenditure, tenant demand, debt attached and the cost of selling. This is not an instruction to sell the weakest performer automatically; transaction costs and tax consequences matter. It is a way to identify where pressure would emerge first.
Investors should also review fixed-rate and interest-only expiry dates. A portfolio with several facilities resetting in the same quarter carries concentration risk even when each loan appears manageable individually.
The goal is not to predict the RBA perfectly. It is to ensure that one policy decision does not force a rushed refinancing, sale or reduction in essential maintenance. A portfolio that can absorb higher rates and temporary income interruptions gives its owner time to make deliberate decisions.
Read more: What mortgage holders should do before the next RBA decision
Portfolio checklist
Stress test: Current rate plus 0.25, 0.50 and one percentage point.
Model: Net rent after every recurring cost and vacancy.
Check: Fixed-rate expiries, interest-only expiries and loan maturity.
Preserve: An accessible emergency buffer.
Review: Insurance, land tax, strata works and major maintenance.
Seek advice: Licensed credit, financial and tax advice before restructuring.
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