Under pressure: where interest rate rises are starting to bite

There’s no end in sight for mortgage holder pain, with some parts of the country set for a worse time than others, new analysis suggests.

While economists from the major banks are predicting rates to rise at least another 25 basis points from the current level of 4.1 percent to 4.35 percent, data from CoreLogic reveals it’s the outer suburbs of the country’s capitals most likely to feel the pressure.

Head of research at CoreLogic, Eliza Owen, said repayments on a $750,000 loan have risen by about $1,550 per month since rate hikes began in May 2022, forcing many households to dig deep.

“Households in some regions will feel the pinch more than others,” Ms Owen said.

“The number of mortgaged, owner occupier households are generally highest in outer regions of major cities, particularly Melbourne.
“Looking at SA3 regional boundaries at the time of the 2021 Census, the highest number of mortgaged owner occupiers were in Wyndham (43,807, or around 48 percent of households), Casey –South (38,614, or 56.2 percent of households), and Wanneroo in Perth (38,320, or 54 percent of households).”

Adding further pressure on the ability of mortgage holders in those areas to service their loans, 16 of the 25 regions identified had a weekly median income lower than that of their greater capital city.

Ms Owen noted that Blacktown – North has seen a steady rise in the number of listings in the past four weeks, while the amount of time on the market has been increasing since February. This points to more available properties on the market and greater uncertainty amongst would-be buyers.

Other parts of the market, such as mining towns and inner city areas where there are fewer owner occupier mortgages, may also be under stress, Ms Owen said. Capital gains in some areas have also clouded the impact of higher interest rates on investment mortgage holders.

“It is noticeable that new listings volumes are climbing in some of these markets, where the national trend is seeing a seasonal slowdown,” she said. “This could make it more difficult for recent buyers to make a capital gain if they are struggling to meet mortgage repayments.”

For decades, Australia has leaned into its reputation as the lucky country. But luck, as it turns out, is not an economic strategy.

What once looked like resilience now appears increasingly fragile. Beneath the surface of rising property values and steady headline growth, the Australian economy is showing signs of strain that can no longer be ignored.

Recent data paints a sobering picture. Australia has recorded one of the largest declines in real household disposable income per capita among advanced economies.

Wages have failed to keep pace with inflation, meaning many Australians are working harder for less. On a per capita basis, income growth has stalled and, at times, reversed.

And yet, on paper, things still look relatively solid. GDP is growing. Unemployment remains low. But that growth is increasingly being driven by population expansion rather than productivity.

More people are contributing to output, but not necessarily improving living standards.

That distinction matters.

For years, Australia’s economic success rested on a powerful combination: a once-in-a-generation mining boom, a credit-fuelled housing market, strong migration and a property sector that rarely faltered. Between 1991 and 2020, the country avoided recession entirely, building enormous wealth in the process.

But much of that wealth is tied to property. Around two-thirds of household wealth sits in real estate, inflated by leverage and sustained by demand. It has worked, until now.

The problem is the supply side of the economy has not kept up.

Housing supply is falling behind population growth. Rental vacancies are near record lows.

Construction firms are collapsing at an elevated rate. At the same time, massive infrastructure pipelines are competing with residential projects for labour and materials, pushing costs higher and delaying delivery.

The result is a system under pressure from all angles.

Despite near full employment, productivity growth has stagnated for years. In simple terms, Australians are putting in more hours without generating more output per hour. The economy is running faster, butgoing nowhere.

Meanwhile, government spending continues to expand. Public debt is approaching $1 trillion, with spending now accounting for a record share of GDP.

The gap between spending and revenue has been filled by borrowing for decades, adding further pressure to an already stretched system.

This is where the uncomfortable question emerges.

Has Australia become too reliant on a model driven by rising property values, expanding credit and population growth?

As asset prices rise, households feel wealthier and borrow more. Banks lend more. Governments collect more revenue. Migration fuels demand. The cycle reinforces itself.

But when productivity stalls and debt outpaces real income, the system begins to depend on constant expansion just to stay stable.

It is not a collapse scenario. But it is not particularly stable either.

Nowhere is this more evident than in housing.

The National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new homes over five years, yet current completion rates are well below that pace. With approvals falling and construction costs rising, the gap between supply and demand is widening, not narrowing.

Housing is also one of the largest contributors to inflation, with costs rising sharply across rents, construction and utilities. Yet the private sector, from small investors to major developers, is struggling to make projects stack up in the current environment.

This brings the policy debate into sharper focus.

Tax settings such as negative gearing and capital gains concessions have undoubtedly boosted demand over the past two decades. But they have also supported supply. Removing them may ease prices briefly, but risks deepening the supply shortage over time.

That is the paradox.

Policies designed to make housing more affordable can, in practice, make the shortage worse if they discourage development. The optics may appeal, but the economics are far less forgiving.

It is also worth remembering that most property investors are not institutional players. The majority own just one investment property. They are, in many cases, ordinary Australians using real estate as their primary wealth-building tool.

Undermining that system without replacing it with a viable alternative risks unintended consequences, from reduced supply to higher rents and increased inflation.

So where does that leave Australia?

At a crossroads.

The country can continue to rely on population growth and rising asset prices to drive economic activity. Or it can shift towards a model built on productivity, innovation and sustainable growth.

The latter is harder. It requires structural reform, long-term thinking and political discipline.

But it is also the only path that leads to genuine, lasting prosperity.

The question is no longer whether Australia has been lucky.

It is whether it can evolve before that luck runs out.

Paul Miron is the Co-Founder & Fund Manager of Msquared Capital.

Under pressure: where interest rate rises are starting to bite

It’s a tale of two residential rings as some parts of the country’s capitals bear the brunt

As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.