Chronic Wildfires Are Impacting California Home Values
Report by the San Francisco Fed shows small increase in premiums for properties further away from the sites of recent fires
3 min
Wildfires in California have grown more frequent and more catastrophic in recent years, and that’s beginning to reflect in home values, according to a report by the San Francisco Fed released Monday.
The effect on home values has grown over time, and does not appear to be offset by access to insurance. However, “being farther from past fires is associated with a boost in home value of about 2% for homes of average value,” the report said.
In the decade between 2010 and 2020, wildfires lashed 715,000 acres per year on average in California, 81% more than the 1990s. At the same time, the fires destroyed more than 10 times as many structures, with over 4,000 per year damaged by fire in the 2010s, compared with 355 in the 1990s, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture cited by the report.
That was due in part to a number of particularly large and destructive fires in 2017 and 2018, such as the Camp and Tubbs fires, as well the number of homes built in areas vulnerable to wildfires, per the USDA account.
The Camp fire in 2018 was the most damaging in California by a wide margin, destroying over 18,000 structures, though it wasn’t even in the top 20 of the state’s largest fires by acreage. The Mendocino Complex fire earlier that same year was the largest ever at the time, in terms of area, but has since been eclipsed by even larger fires in 2020 and 2021.
As the threat of wildfires becomes more prevalent, the downward effect on home values has increased. The study compared how wildfires impacted home values before and after 2017, and found that in the latter period studied—from 2018 and 2021—homes farther from a recent wildfire earned a premium of roughly $15,000 to $20,000 over similar homes, about $10,000 more than prior to 2017.
The effect was especially pronounced in the mountainous areas around Los Angeles and the Sierra Nevada mountains, since they were closer to where wildfires burned, per the report.
The study also checked whether insurance was enough to offset the hit to values, but found its effect negligible. That was true for both public and private insurance options, even though private options provide broader coverage than the state’s FAIR Plan, which acts as an insurer of last resort and provides coverage for the structure only, not its contents or other types of damages covered by typical homeowners insurance.
“While having insurance can help mitigate some of the costs associated with fire episodes, our results suggest that insurance does little to improve the adverse effects on property values,” the report said.
While wildfires affect homes across the spectrum of values, many luxury homes in California tend to be located in areas particularly vulnerable to the threat of fire.
“From my experience, the high-end homes tend to be up in the hills,” said Ari Weintrub, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s in Los Angeles. “It’s up and removed from down below.”
That puts them in exposed, vegetated areas where brush or forest fires are a hazard, he said.
While the effect of wildfire risk on home values is minimal for now, it could grow over time, the report warns. “This pattern may become stronger in years to come if residential construction continues to expand into areas with higher fire risk and if trends in wildfire severity continue.”
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More than 10,000 homes, an expansive central park and a mix of hospitality, retail and wellness facilities will form Azizi Developments’ first master-planned community in the emirate.
2 min
Sharjah is set to receive one of its largest new residential communities, with Azizi Developments unveiling plans for a US$8.1 billion master-planned precinct containing more than 10,000 homes.
Named Azizi Florence, the freehold development will comprise 1,130 villas, more than 6,000 townhouses and 3,500 apartments. Three-bedroom townhouses will start from US$515,000, with an indicative rate of US$231 per square foot of saleable space.
The project marks the Dubai-based developer’s first move into Sharjah, expanding a portfolio that includes the planned Burj Azizi skyscraper and the Azizi Venice community in Dubai.
A park at the heart of the community
Rather than treating landscaping as an afterthought, Azizi Florence will be organised around a 1.7 million sq ft central park.
The wider precinct is planned as a self-contained neighbourhood combining homes with retail, hospitality, education, leisure and wellness facilities.
Six residential clusters will sit within the development, each with its own park, clubhouse, community centre and landscaped gardens. The approach reflects a broader shift across large Middle Eastern developments, where greenery, recreation and everyday convenience are increasingly central to the residential proposition.
The scale of Azizi Florence suggests it is intended to function as a neighbourhood rather than a collection of housing estates. Its mix of housing types should also give the project broader appeal, accommodating apartment buyers alongside families seeking townhouses or standalone villas.
Azizi expands beyond Dubai
Azizi Developments has delivered more than 45,000 homes to buyers from over 100 countries and says it has approximately 150,000 units under construction.
Much of its growth has been concentrated in Dubai, where its portfolio extends across Palm Jumeirah, Mohammed Bin Rashid City, Dubai South, Sheikh Zayed Road and Downtown Jebel Ali.
Its most prominent current project is Burj Azizi, which is intended to become the world’s second-tallest building. Azizi Florence represents a different type of undertaking: a low-rise, family-oriented community built around public space and daily amenity.
For company founder and chairman Mirwais Azizi, the Sharjah project also carries a personal connection. The emirate was his first home in the UAE more than three decades ago, adding a symbolic dimension to the developer’s expansion.
Sharjah’s residential ambitions grow
Although Dubai and Abu Dhabi have traditionally captured much of the international attention directed at the UAE property market, Sharjah has been steadily broadening its residential offering.
Large freehold communities such as Azizi Florence have the potential to attract both local families and international purchasers looking for comparatively accessible entry points into the Emirates’ property market.
At a starting price of US$515,000, the project’s three-bedroom townhouses will sit well below the cost of equivalent family homes in many of Dubai’s more established luxury communities.
The ultimate appeal, however, will depend on execution. At this scale, the quality of the public realm, connections between residential clusters and delivery of the promised supporting infrastructure will be as important as the homes themselves.
If those elements come together, Azizi Florence could help establish a new benchmark for large-scale residential development in Sharjah—and give buyers another option beyond the UAE’s better-known property markets.
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