As a roaring spring begins, where are home prices headed?
It’s a busy weekend for Australian residential property as confidence returns amid steadying interest rates
3 min
Spring is here and so too is one of the busiest auction weekends of the year, with vendors feeling confident and buyers out in force – a trend economists expect to continue.
Research firm CoreLogic reports a whopping 2401 homes are set to go under the hammer across the country on Saturday, up 5.4 percent on last weekend and the third largest volume of 2023 thus far.
“Auction activity across Sydney is set to exceed 1000 for the second time this year, with 1010 homes currently scheduled to go under the hammer this week… up 16.5 percent,” CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said.
Strong momentum in property markets continues to defy expectations.
About this time last year, most pundits were predicting steep price falls throughout 2023 on the back of soaring interest rates.
Instead, values rose for the sixth consecutive month in August, up 0.8 per cent nationally and now 4.9 per cent higher since bottoming out in February, data released today shows.
Sydney has led the recovery trend, with a rise of 8.8 per cent since prices found a floor at the start of 2023, while Brisbane has also seen values jump 6.2 percent in that time.
Cameron Kusher, director of economic research at data house PropTrack, said the “better-than-expected price growth” had reversed virtually all the declines seen in the backend of 2022.
“Property prices have increased despite rising interest rates and reduced borrowing capacities,” Mr Kusher said.
“From here, the direction of the housing market will likely be influenced by the volume of housing stock available for sale. Low volumes of new and existing properties persisted In June, but this may soon change.”
PropTrack’s newest Property Market Outlook report has forecast national home prices to be between 2 percent and 5 percent higher by the end of the year.
It is a marked turnaround on a previous prediction of a fall of between 7 percent and 10 percent, Mr Kusher said.
“Forecasts for 2024 are considerably more difficult, given the uncertainty of many factors. At this stage, we are forecasting modest price growth in 2024.
“However, significant changes to the overall economic performance, interest rates or lending conditions, could result in vastly different price growth outcomes.”
He predicts prices nationally could be up to 3 percent higher by the end of 2024, with modest growth across most capitals, including up to 2 percent in Sydney and up to 3 percent in Melbourne.
Domain’s recently released Forecast Report is a tad more optimistic, predicting the housing market will be in a “well-established, steady recovery” by mid-next year.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart will record the largest gains,” the report predicts.
Forecasts are for house prices in Sydney to end the current financial year up to nine per cent higher, with modest growth in Melbourne of up to two per cent and a rise in Brisbane of up to 4 percent.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide, Perth and the combined capitals will be at a new record high [while] Brisbane house prices will be close to a new record high,” the report predicts.
Strong population growth is set to put “greater and more immediate pressure” on housing demand, which sees an additional 300,000 dwellings needed to meet needs.
“Typically, overseas migrants rent on arrival, but, with a tight rental market Australia-wide, we may see some arrivals transition to home ownership sooner as they seek more stable housing alternatives.
“This is occurring at a time the construction industry has experienced unprecedented headwinds – skills shortages, supply chain disruptions, and soaring construction costs.”
While prices are expected to rise, affordability pressures, high interest rates and restrictive serviceability buffers will contain the pace of growth, the report reads.
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
An architectural jewel of Victoria’s Goulburn Valley, the Noorilim Estate stands as one of Australia’s most extraordinary Italianate mansions.
2 min
Legend has it that opera icon Dame Nellie Melba performed in the minstrels’ gallery and current-day hitmaker Tones and I filmed a music video at Noorilim estate. The high profile property has even been the breeding ground for multiple Melbourne Cup winners including 1910 champion, Comedy King, who was laid to rest within the grounds.
In 1998, prominent art dealer and entrepreneur behind Menzies International, the late Rod Menzies and his wife Carolyn, bought Noorilim for $3.325 million and set about restoring the Italianate mansion to its former glory.
Today, the 65ha property in the heart of the Goulburn Valley is on the market for only the third time in the past 50 years via Sean Cussell of Christie’s International Real Estate with a price guide of $15m.
During the Menzies’ ownership, the glamorous country estate was a venue for weddings, concerts, and private events, welcoming a long list of international guests. Chart-topping artist Tones and I filmed the video for her song Bad Child at the estate, and the period property has played its part in numerous films and television series. Singer and actor Ted Hamilton, known for roles in Division 4, Homicide, The Love Boat, M*A*S*H and Hawaii Five-O, was also a regular performer at the address.
Given its stately grandeur, Noorilim was even a successful auction centre for fine art with works by Brett Whiteley, Sidney Nolan and Jeffrey Smart sold under the hammer at the property.
Built in 1879 by celebrated architect James Gall for parliamentarian William Winter-Irving, Noorilim is a prime example of post-Gold Rush prosperity in Victoria. At the time of its construction in the mid to late-1800s, Australia had been labelled one of the richest nations on earth and Melbourne’s monied elite were spilling out of the city looking to build country estates to rival those in Great Britain. The nouveau riche began commissioning lavish ornamental houses shadowing the Gothic, Italianate and Queen Anne designs of Europe.
Noorilim’s facade is a striking example of this “boom style” architecture featuring an asymmetrical tower, ornate balustrades and grand arched loggias that frame sweeping views of the estate’s manicured grounds.
Inside, the vast 1022sq m residence has 5m ceilings and lavish period features, including 15 fireplaces, seven staircases, and intricate Corinthian columns.
At the heart of the mansion its grand hall has Minton tiles imported from England and laid by Italian artisans who were shipped out specifically for the job. There is a turret lookout, a billiard room, 10 bedrooms, four bathrooms, an office and grand formal rooms such as a lounge, library and dining room all with expansive windows showcasing views of the gardens and vineyard.
Noorilim’s name is derived from the Indigenous Yorta Yorta language and means “place of many reeds” reflecting the estate’s connection to its natural surroundings. Complementing Gall’s vision, renowned landscape designer William Guilfoyle — who worked on Melbourne’s Royal Botanic Gardens — crafted Noorilim’s standout gardens.
The grounds are home to echidnas, kangaroos and koalas, more than 300 mature trees including ancient Moreton Bay figs, a rose garden with a central fountain, an ornamental lake, a boathouse, and even a private beach on the banks of Goulburn River. There is also an extensive wine cellar, numerous outbuildings and barns, as well as a heritage-listed water tower. The working vineyard produces Chardonnay, Shiraz, Cabernet, and Merlot grape varieties.
Noorilim, near Nagambie, is 150kms north east of Melbourne at 205 Wahring Murchison East Rd, Wahring. The property is listed with Sean Cussell from Christie’s International Real
This stylish family home combines a classic palette and finishes with a flexible floorplan
Just 55 minutes from Sydney, make this your creative getaway located in the majestic Hawkesbury region.
