As a roaring spring begins, where are home prices headed?
It’s a busy weekend for Australian residential property as confidence returns amid steadying interest rates
3 min
Spring is here and so too is one of the busiest auction weekends of the year, with vendors feeling confident and buyers out in force – a trend economists expect to continue.
Research firm CoreLogic reports a whopping 2401 homes are set to go under the hammer across the country on Saturday, up 5.4 percent on last weekend and the third largest volume of 2023 thus far.
“Auction activity across Sydney is set to exceed 1000 for the second time this year, with 1010 homes currently scheduled to go under the hammer this week… up 16.5 percent,” CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said.
Strong momentum in property markets continues to defy expectations.
About this time last year, most pundits were predicting steep price falls throughout 2023 on the back of soaring interest rates.
Instead, values rose for the sixth consecutive month in August, up 0.8 per cent nationally and now 4.9 per cent higher since bottoming out in February, data released today shows.
Sydney has led the recovery trend, with a rise of 8.8 per cent since prices found a floor at the start of 2023, while Brisbane has also seen values jump 6.2 percent in that time.
Cameron Kusher, director of economic research at data house PropTrack, said the “better-than-expected price growth” had reversed virtually all the declines seen in the backend of 2022.
“Property prices have increased despite rising interest rates and reduced borrowing capacities,” Mr Kusher said.
“From here, the direction of the housing market will likely be influenced by the volume of housing stock available for sale. Low volumes of new and existing properties persisted In June, but this may soon change.”
PropTrack’s newest Property Market Outlook report has forecast national home prices to be between 2 percent and 5 percent higher by the end of the year.
It is a marked turnaround on a previous prediction of a fall of between 7 percent and 10 percent, Mr Kusher said.
“Forecasts for 2024 are considerably more difficult, given the uncertainty of many factors. At this stage, we are forecasting modest price growth in 2024.
“However, significant changes to the overall economic performance, interest rates or lending conditions, could result in vastly different price growth outcomes.”
He predicts prices nationally could be up to 3 percent higher by the end of 2024, with modest growth across most capitals, including up to 2 percent in Sydney and up to 3 percent in Melbourne.
Domain’s recently released Forecast Report is a tad more optimistic, predicting the housing market will be in a “well-established, steady recovery” by mid-next year.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart will record the largest gains,” the report predicts.
Forecasts are for house prices in Sydney to end the current financial year up to nine per cent higher, with modest growth in Melbourne of up to two per cent and a rise in Brisbane of up to 4 percent.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide, Perth and the combined capitals will be at a new record high [while] Brisbane house prices will be close to a new record high,” the report predicts.
Strong population growth is set to put “greater and more immediate pressure” on housing demand, which sees an additional 300,000 dwellings needed to meet needs.
“Typically, overseas migrants rent on arrival, but, with a tight rental market Australia-wide, we may see some arrivals transition to home ownership sooner as they seek more stable housing alternatives.
“This is occurring at a time the construction industry has experienced unprecedented headwinds – skills shortages, supply chain disruptions, and soaring construction costs.”
While prices are expected to rise, affordability pressures, high interest rates and restrictive serviceability buffers will contain the pace of growth, the report reads.
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A landmark Watsons Bay residence formerly owned by businessman Mark Bouris has returned to the market, bringing one of the harbourside village’s most distinctive homes back into play.
The five-bedroom property at 23 Robertson Place occupies 654 square metres opposite Robertson Park, within footsteps of Watsons Bay Beach, the ferry wharf and the celebrated restaurants lining the foreshore.
Its position places the home at the centre of one of Sydney’s most recognisable harbour villages, yet its substantial proportions, private outdoor areas and garaging give it a degree of separation rarely found so close to the waterfront.
The residence was previously owned by Bouris, the founder of Wizard Home Loans and chairman of Yellow Brick Road. Property records show it last changed hands in November 2013 for $7 million, having sold for $890,000 in 1995.
That 2013 transaction was handled by prestige agent Bill Malouf through Highland Double Bay. Bouris was the vendor when the home last sold.
Architect Malcolm Sholl designed the contemporary residence around a fluid connection between its interiors and outdoor entertaining areas. Extensive glazing draws natural light into the principal rooms, while district views take in the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
Travertine flooring extends through the principal living areas and out towards the terraces, reinforcing the relationship between the home and its coastal setting.
At the centre of the residence is a marble kitchen equipped with Gaggenau gas appliances and an integrated Miele coffee machine. It connects to expansive open-plan living and dining areas designed for both family life and large-scale entertaining.
Five double bedrooms are accompanied by three bathrooms and a guest powder room. Informal living spaces include a home cinema.
Outside, there’s a 23-metre lap pool and an alfresco entertainer’s terrace. Internal access from the garage and accommodation for four cars are especially valuable in the tightly held village location.
The address also carries an unusual fragment of local architectural history. Woollahra planning material identifies portions of an early Victorian cottage dating from about 1839 within the contemporary three-storey residence, placing the property within the wider Watsons Bay heritage conservation area.
The home made headlines for another reason in January 2025, when a Ferrari left the road and struck the property. Two occupants of the vehicle were taken to hospital following the incident.
The Agency’s Ben Collier has a $20 million guide.
Watsons Bay remains one of Sydney’s smallest and most tightly held prestige markets. There have only been two house sales in the suburb so far in 2026. The suburb record was set late last year when yachtie Linda Goddard paid $35.5 million for a Pacific Street waterfront.
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