As a roaring spring begins, where are home prices headed?
It’s a busy weekend for Australian residential property as confidence returns amid steadying interest rates
3 min
Spring is here and so too is one of the busiest auction weekends of the year, with vendors feeling confident and buyers out in force – a trend economists expect to continue.
Research firm CoreLogic reports a whopping 2401 homes are set to go under the hammer across the country on Saturday, up 5.4 percent on last weekend and the third largest volume of 2023 thus far.
“Auction activity across Sydney is set to exceed 1000 for the second time this year, with 1010 homes currently scheduled to go under the hammer this week… up 16.5 percent,” CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said.
Strong momentum in property markets continues to defy expectations.
About this time last year, most pundits were predicting steep price falls throughout 2023 on the back of soaring interest rates.
Instead, values rose for the sixth consecutive month in August, up 0.8 per cent nationally and now 4.9 per cent higher since bottoming out in February, data released today shows.
Sydney has led the recovery trend, with a rise of 8.8 per cent since prices found a floor at the start of 2023, while Brisbane has also seen values jump 6.2 percent in that time.
Cameron Kusher, director of economic research at data house PropTrack, said the “better-than-expected price growth” had reversed virtually all the declines seen in the backend of 2022.
“Property prices have increased despite rising interest rates and reduced borrowing capacities,” Mr Kusher said.
“From here, the direction of the housing market will likely be influenced by the volume of housing stock available for sale. Low volumes of new and existing properties persisted In June, but this may soon change.”
PropTrack’s newest Property Market Outlook report has forecast national home prices to be between 2 percent and 5 percent higher by the end of the year.
It is a marked turnaround on a previous prediction of a fall of between 7 percent and 10 percent, Mr Kusher said.
“Forecasts for 2024 are considerably more difficult, given the uncertainty of many factors. At this stage, we are forecasting modest price growth in 2024.
“However, significant changes to the overall economic performance, interest rates or lending conditions, could result in vastly different price growth outcomes.”
He predicts prices nationally could be up to 3 percent higher by the end of 2024, with modest growth across most capitals, including up to 2 percent in Sydney and up to 3 percent in Melbourne.
Domain’s recently released Forecast Report is a tad more optimistic, predicting the housing market will be in a “well-established, steady recovery” by mid-next year.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart will record the largest gains,” the report predicts.
Forecasts are for house prices in Sydney to end the current financial year up to nine per cent higher, with modest growth in Melbourne of up to two per cent and a rise in Brisbane of up to 4 percent.
“House prices in Sydney, Adelaide, Perth and the combined capitals will be at a new record high [while] Brisbane house prices will be close to a new record high,” the report predicts.
Strong population growth is set to put “greater and more immediate pressure” on housing demand, which sees an additional 300,000 dwellings needed to meet needs.
“Typically, overseas migrants rent on arrival, but, with a tight rental market Australia-wide, we may see some arrivals transition to home ownership sooner as they seek more stable housing alternatives.
“This is occurring at a time the construction industry has experienced unprecedented headwinds – skills shortages, supply chain disruptions, and soaring construction costs.”
While prices are expected to rise, affordability pressures, high interest rates and restrictive serviceability buffers will contain the pace of growth, the report reads.
Automobili Lamborghini and Babolat have expanded their collaboration with five new colourways for the ultra-exclusive BL.001 racket, limited to just 50 pieces worldwide.
As housing drives wealth and policy debate, the real risk is an economy hooked on growth without productivity to sustain it.
Strong consumer spending and tight supply have driven retail to the top of commercial property, but signs of pressure are starting to emerge.
2 min
Australia’s retail property sector entered 2026 as the strongest performing commercial asset class, but rising geopolitical risks and cost pressures are beginning to test its resilience, according to new research from Knight Frank.
The latest Australian Retail Review shows the sector rode a wave of consumer spending and constrained supply through 2025, delivering total returns of 9.2 per cent and driving transaction volumes up 43 per cent year-on-year to $14.4 billion.
That momentum carried into early 2026, with around $3.6 billion in deals recorded in the first quarter alone.
“Retail clearly emerged as the standout commercial property performer in 2025,” said Knight Frank Senior Economist, Research & Consulting Alistair Read.
“Improving household spending, limited new supply and stronger leasing fundamentals combined to drive better income growth and renewed investor confidence in the sector.”
Spending rebound drives retail strength
A lift in household spending has been central to the sector’s performance. Consumer spending rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year to February 2026, supported by easing inflation and improving real incomes.
That shift flowed directly into retailer performance, with average EBIT margins across major retailers rising to 8.9 per cent in the first half of 2026, their strongest level in several years.
“Stronger consumer spending was critical in restoring momentum to the retail sector,” Mr Read said.
“Retailers have generally been better able to absorb costs, rebuild margins and support sustainable rental outcomes, particularly in higher-quality centres.”
Improved trading conditions also pushed leasing spreads up 4.2 per cent in 2025, reinforcing income growth and supporting capital values.
Geopolitical tensions begin to bite
But the outlook has become more complicated. The report warns that escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, supply chains and interest rates could weigh heavily on consumer spending.
“Higher fuel prices, flow-on cost pressures across supply chains, and recent interest rate increases are collectively squeezing household budgets, and early consumer sentiment data suggests confidence is already softening,” Mr Read said.
“While household balance sheets remain generally resilient, heightened uncertainty over future costs is likely to weigh on spending — particularly in discretionary categories — in the months ahead.”
The impact is already being felt in investment activity. While the year began strongly, transaction volumes slowed in March as investors paused amid the uncertainty.
“Early indicators suggest elevated uncertainty has already begun to affect the market. While retail investment enjoyed its strongest start to a year in a decade, with nearly $3 billion transacted by the end of February, activity stalled in March, as investors took a pause amid elevated uncertainty,” Mr Read said.
Solid foundations support medium-term outlook
Despite the near-term headwinds, Knight Frank maintains that the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. Limited new supply, high construction costs and population growth are expected to continue supporting rental growth over the medium term.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” Mr Read said.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
The report highlights several trends shaping the year ahead, including steady yields as interest rates rise, mounting pressure on tenant margins, continued outperformance of prime centres, the growing need for logistics integration, and risks linked to underinvestment in capital expenditure.
For now, retail remains a sector with momentum, but one increasingly at the mercy of forces far beyond the shopping centre.
With two waterfronts, bushland surrounds and a $35 million price tag, this Belongil Beach retreat could become Byron’s most expensive home ever.
Powerhouse real estate couple Avi Khan and Kaylea Sayer welcome their daughter while balancing record-breaking careers, proving success and family can grow side by side.
